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Will Higher Peru Output Strengthen Mission Produce's Outlook?
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Key Takeaways
AVO sees Peru exportable avocado production reaching a record 120-130 million pounds in fiscal 2026.
A shift toward Peru and California supply is expected to support better per-unit margins in the second half.
AVO forecasts second-half adjusted EBITDA of $84-$88M, aided by stronger Peru contributions.
Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO - Free Report) is heading into the second half of fiscal 2026 with its Peruvian operations poised to become a more meaningful earnings contributor. After an unusually heavy Mexican avocado supply pressured pricing and margins in the second quarter, the seasonal transition toward Peru could improve the company’s sourcing mix and support profitability. Management expects fruit development at its owned Peruvian avocado farms to deliver a robust crop, with exportable production projected to be roughly 20% higher year over year.
Mission Produce expects its Peru farms to produce an all-time-high 120-130 million pounds of exportable avocados in fiscal 2026, up from 105 million pounds in the 2025 harvest season. The benefit should be particularly visible in the fourth quarter, as the later timing of this year’s harvest is expected to push a greater portion of owned-fruit sales into that period. Management also expects the shift in supply from Mexico toward Peru and California to allow Mission to better utilize its multi-region sourcing network, supporting a meaningful improvement in per-unit margins during the back half.
The larger Peru crop therefore provides an important underpinning to Mission Produce’s second-half outlook, though pricing remains a key variable. Third-quarter avocado prices are expected to decline about 15% year over year, reflecting greater industry supply. Still, management expects improving pricing stability and higher Peru volumes to produce a much stronger international farming contribution in the fourth quarter. Mission forecasts consolidated second-half adjusted EBITDA of $84-$88 million, with stronger Peru contributions among the factors supporting the expected rebound in performance.
How Are CTVA & DOLE Benefiting From Improving Volume Trends?
Can improving volume trends help Corteva, Inc. (CTVA - Free Report) and Dole plc (DOLE - Free Report) drive growth despite market pressures?
Corteva is positioned to benefit from improving agricultural activity and higher demand for productivity-enhancing technologies, although its exposure to crop output differs from that of fresh-produce growers. In the first half of 2026, strong adoption of newer Crop Protection products supported volume growth, while management highlighted healthy underlying demand in Brazil, where expanding acreage and increased disease and pest pressure are supporting product usage.
Dole is seeing higher volumes across parts of its diversified fresh-produce portfolio, providing some support as its Fresh Fruit business navigates supply and cost pressures. In the second quarter of 2026, the Diversified Fresh Produce – Americas & ROW segment delivered strong growth, aided by increased kiwi and avocado volumes in North America and favorable seasonal timing for cherries, helping segment adjusted EBITDA rise 33.8%. Banana volumes also increased in Europe, although lower North American banana shipments and weather-related reductions in pineapple availability limited Fresh Fruit performance.
AVO’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Mission Produce have gained 25.4% in the last three months compared to the industry’s growth of 10.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, AVO trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.32X, above the industry’s average of 15.49X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVO’s fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of 26.6%, while that for fiscal 2027 indicates growth of 35.3%. The company’s EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have remained stable in the past seven days.
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Will Higher Peru Output Strengthen Mission Produce's Outlook?
Key Takeaways
Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO - Free Report) is heading into the second half of fiscal 2026 with its Peruvian operations poised to become a more meaningful earnings contributor. After an unusually heavy Mexican avocado supply pressured pricing and margins in the second quarter, the seasonal transition toward Peru could improve the company’s sourcing mix and support profitability. Management expects fruit development at its owned Peruvian avocado farms to deliver a robust crop, with exportable production projected to be roughly 20% higher year over year.
Mission Produce expects its Peru farms to produce an all-time-high 120-130 million pounds of exportable avocados in fiscal 2026, up from 105 million pounds in the 2025 harvest season. The benefit should be particularly visible in the fourth quarter, as the later timing of this year’s harvest is expected to push a greater portion of owned-fruit sales into that period. Management also expects the shift in supply from Mexico toward Peru and California to allow Mission to better utilize its multi-region sourcing network, supporting a meaningful improvement in per-unit margins during the back half.
The larger Peru crop therefore provides an important underpinning to Mission Produce’s second-half outlook, though pricing remains a key variable. Third-quarter avocado prices are expected to decline about 15% year over year, reflecting greater industry supply. Still, management expects improving pricing stability and higher Peru volumes to produce a much stronger international farming contribution in the fourth quarter. Mission forecasts consolidated second-half adjusted EBITDA of $84-$88 million, with stronger Peru contributions among the factors supporting the expected rebound in performance.
How Are CTVA & DOLE Benefiting From Improving Volume Trends?
Can improving volume trends help Corteva, Inc. (CTVA - Free Report) and Dole plc (DOLE - Free Report) drive growth despite market pressures?
Corteva is positioned to benefit from improving agricultural activity and higher demand for productivity-enhancing technologies, although its exposure to crop output differs from that of fresh-produce growers. In the first half of 2026, strong adoption of newer Crop Protection products supported volume growth, while management highlighted healthy underlying demand in Brazil, where expanding acreage and increased disease and pest pressure are supporting product usage.
Dole is seeing higher volumes across parts of its diversified fresh-produce portfolio, providing some support as its Fresh Fruit business navigates supply and cost pressures. In the second quarter of 2026, the Diversified Fresh Produce – Americas & ROW segment delivered strong growth, aided by increased kiwi and avocado volumes in North America and favorable seasonal timing for cherries, helping segment adjusted EBITDA rise 33.8%. Banana volumes also increased in Europe, although lower North American banana shipments and weather-related reductions in pineapple availability limited Fresh Fruit performance.
AVO’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Mission Produce have gained 25.4% in the last three months compared to the industry’s growth of 10.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, AVO trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.32X, above the industry’s average of 15.49X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVO’s fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of 26.6%, while that for fiscal 2027 indicates growth of 35.3%. The company’s EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have remained stable in the past seven days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AVO stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.