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ETFs & Stocks Likely to Win From Back-to-School Season
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Key Takeaways
Back-to-school spending is projected to hit a record $146.8 billion.
Value retailers could benefit as shoppers prioritize deals and promotions.
AI, semiconductor and online retail ETFs offer additional exposure.
Back-to-school and college is one of the busiest shopping seasons (mid-July to mid-September) in the United States. As of early August, shoppers had completed 44% of their average shopping lists, up significantly from 23% in early July, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
However, the timing of remaining purchases largely depends on back-to-school deadlines, with 52% of K-12 shoppers and 48% of college shoppers saying they expect to finish their shopping by one to two weeks before school begins.
Back-to-School Spending Hits Record High
Total expected back-to-school spending by K-12 and college shoppers is projected to reach a record $146.8 billion in 2026, up from $128.2 billion in 2025, per NRF. K-12 spending is expected to rise to $43.3 billion from $39.4 billion, while college spending is projected to climb to $103.5 billion from $88.8 billion. The sharp uptick highlights resilient back-to-school demand despite the ongoing consumer efforts to seek value.
Per-Person Spending Rises
Expected per-person back-to-school spending is projected to increase for college shoppers to a record $1,438 in 2026, up from $1,326 in 2025. K-12 spending is expected to edge up to $864 from $858. While college spending has risen sharply over the years, K-12 spending has remained relatively stable since reaching $890 in 2023, per NRF.
Back-to-School Shopping Shifts In-Store
Back-to-school shopping is shifting from online channels toward physical value retailers. Online shopping fell from 55% to 50% among K–12 shoppers and from 48% to 41% among college shoppers, while discount-store usage remained relatively resilient. This reflects inflation-conscious consumers seeking deals and consolidating purchases in stores.
The trend puts focus on Target (TGT - Free Report) , which offers exposure to school supplies, apparel, home goods, and college-related purchases. TGT has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP - Free Report) also deserves a look.
Shoppers Turn to AI and Deals
Consumers are increasingly turning to AI to plan back-to-school shopping, with 61% using generative AI and other AI-powered tools to find deals, compare prices and get recommendations, per NRF. This puts the focus on Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT - Free Report) .
Retailers Focus on Value
Retailers are emphasizing value, with 73% of back-to-school shoppers saying sales and promotions were as good as or better than last year. On average, 48% of purchases were driven by coupons, sales or promotions, highlighting consumers’ focus on deals, per NRF.
In this regard, Dollar General (DG - Free Report) could be in focus. It is one of the largest discount retailers in the United States. The stock has surged 8.8% over the past month (as of Sept. 4, 2026).
Back-to-School Tech Buying Trends
Consumers are also changing their back-to-school electronics preferences. While laptops remain the most popular purchase, fewer shoppers are buying them, partly because schools are increasingly providing devices directly to students.
In fact, 20% of shoppers who are not buying electronics say their schools provide them. Meanwhile, K-12 shoppers are increasingly turning to desktop computers, with the share planning to purchase them rising from 17% in 2021 to 21% in 2026, per NRF.
No wonder, one should note that the pillar of electronics, i.e., semiconductors, is expected to see higher demand. This puts focus on VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH - Free Report) .
Online Search Leads Inspiration
Online search (about 44%) is the top source of inspiration for college shoppers, followed by friends and family (33%) and Instagram (19%), per NRF. Younger shoppers aged 18-24 also turn heavily to TikTok, Pinterest and retailer apps, while in-store browsing, email advertisements, Facebook and X round out their top 10 sources.As a result, ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN - Free Report) should be an ETF to keep an eye on in this regard.
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ETFs & Stocks Likely to Win From Back-to-School Season
Key Takeaways
Back-to-school and college is one of the busiest shopping seasons (mid-July to mid-September) in the United States. As of early August, shoppers had completed 44% of their average shopping lists, up significantly from 23% in early July, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
However, the timing of remaining purchases largely depends on back-to-school deadlines, with 52% of K-12 shoppers and 48% of college shoppers saying they expect to finish their shopping by one to two weeks before school begins.
Back-to-School Spending Hits Record High
Total expected back-to-school spending by K-12 and college shoppers is projected to reach a record $146.8 billion in 2026, up from $128.2 billion in 2025, per NRF. K-12 spending is expected to rise to $43.3 billion from $39.4 billion, while college spending is projected to climb to $103.5 billion from $88.8 billion. The sharp uptick highlights resilient back-to-school demand despite the ongoing consumer efforts to seek value.
Per-Person Spending Rises
Expected per-person back-to-school spending is projected to increase for college shoppers to a record $1,438 in 2026, up from $1,326 in 2025. K-12 spending is expected to edge up to $864 from $858. While college spending has risen sharply over the years, K-12 spending has remained relatively stable since reaching $890 in 2023, per NRF.
Back-to-School Shopping Shifts In-Store
Back-to-school shopping is shifting from online channels toward physical value retailers. Online shopping fell from 55% to 50% among K–12 shoppers and from 48% to 41% among college shoppers, while discount-store usage remained relatively resilient. This reflects inflation-conscious consumers seeking deals and consolidating purchases in stores.
The trend puts focus on Target (TGT - Free Report) , which offers exposure to school supplies, apparel, home goods, and college-related purchases. TGT has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP - Free Report) also deserves a look.
Shoppers Turn to AI and Deals
Consumers are increasingly turning to AI to plan back-to-school shopping, with 61% using generative AI and other AI-powered tools to find deals, compare prices and get recommendations, per NRF. This puts the focus on Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT - Free Report) .
Retailers Focus on Value
Retailers are emphasizing value, with 73% of back-to-school shoppers saying sales and promotions were as good as or better than last year. On average, 48% of purchases were driven by coupons, sales or promotions, highlighting consumers’ focus on deals, per NRF.
In this regard, Dollar General (DG - Free Report) could be in focus. It is one of the largest discount retailers in the United States. The stock has surged 8.8% over the past month (as of Sept. 4, 2026).
Back-to-School Tech Buying Trends
Consumers are also changing their back-to-school electronics preferences. While laptops remain the most popular purchase, fewer shoppers are buying them, partly because schools are increasingly providing devices directly to students.
In fact, 20% of shoppers who are not buying electronics say their schools provide them. Meanwhile, K-12 shoppers are increasingly turning to desktop computers, with the share planning to purchase them rising from 17% in 2021 to 21% in 2026, per NRF.
No wonder, one should note that the pillar of electronics, i.e., semiconductors, is expected to see higher demand. This puts focus on VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH - Free Report) .
Online Search Leads Inspiration
Online search (about 44%) is the top source of inspiration for college shoppers, followed by friends and family (33%) and Instagram (19%), per NRF. Younger shoppers aged 18-24 also turn heavily to TikTok, Pinterest and retailer apps, while in-store browsing, email advertisements, Facebook and X round out their top 10 sources.As a result, ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN - Free Report) should be an ETF to keep an eye on in this regard.