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VST Stock Outperforms Industry in the Past 3 Months: Time to Buy?
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Key Takeaways
Vistra gained 3.1% in three months, outperforming its industry as shares stayed above the 50-day SMA.
Vistra hedged about 100% of 2026, 94% of 2027 and 72% of 2028 expected generation volumes.
Vistra's 108.68% ROE tops the industry and its P/E is discounted, but debt-to-capital stands at 78.1%.
Shares of Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) have gained 3.2% in the past three months against the Zacks Utility- Electric Power industry’s decline of 2.7% and the Zacks Utilities sector’s 2.8% drop.
Long-term PPAs continue to play a vital role in Vistra's strategy, enhancing earnings visibility by expanding the contracted revenue base while still allowing it to benefit from favorable conditions in merchant power markets.
Vistra’s diversified power generation fleet, effective hedging strategies and long-term PPAs support long-term growth, while planned capital investments expand clean power capacity and strengthen grid reliability.
Price Performance (Three months)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Another firm, Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG - Free Report) , also produces a substantial volume of clean energy from its generation assets. Constellation Energy’s shares have gained 19.1% in the past three months.
Vistra has been trading above its 50-day simple moving average (“SMA”), signaling a short-term bullish trend.
The 50-day SMA is a key indicator for traders and analysts to identify support and resistance levels. It is considered particularly important as this is the first marker of an uptrend or downtrend.
VST’s 50 Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Should investors consider adding VST to their portfolio only based on positive price movements? Let’s delve deeper and find out the factors that can help investors decide whether it is a good entry point to add VST stock to their portfolio.
Vistra’s Shares Advance on Favorable Growth Drivers
Vistra operates a fully integrated business model that combines power generation, retail electricity operations and energy storage, supported by disciplined risk management. This structure helps the company balance supply and demand, and generate more stable cash flows and earnings.
Vistra is strengthening earnings visibility through a disciplined hedging strategy that limits near-term exposure to volatile wholesale power prices. As of Aug. 3, 2026, Vistra had hedged roughly 100% of expected generation volumes for 2026, 94% for 2027 and 72% for 2028.
Vistra’s diversified, multi-fuel generation fleet further supports long-term growth. With 43,641 megawatts (MW) of capacity across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery storage, Vistra can adapt to changing market conditions, reduce dependence on individual fuel sources, support grid reliability and efficiently manage fuel and operating costs. The diversified portfolio also positions the company to meet rising commercial and industrial electricity demand while expanding its clean-energy capabilities and capitalizing on favorable market conditions.
Long-term power purchase agreements ("PPAs") extend this earnings protection beyond the hedge book. Vistra has a 20-year agreement with Amazon Web Services for up to 1,200 MW from the Comanche Peak nuclear plant. In January 2026, the company also signed 20-year PPAs with Meta for more than 2,600 MW from its PJM nuclear fleet, including 2,176 MW of existing generation and 433 MW of planned uprates.
Vistra remains committed to disciplined capital deployment, prioritizing nuclear expansion, additional solar and battery storage capacity, and optimization of its natural gas fleet to support peak electricity demand.
VST’s Earnings Estimates Moving North
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 75.1% and 14%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The same for Constellation Energy’s 2026 and 2027 EPS indicates a year-over-year rise of 29.3% and 8.1%, respectively.
VST’s Earnings Surprise History
Vistra’s earnings beat estimates in three out of the past four quarters, and missed once. The company has an average earnings surprise of 19.86%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Another utility, Duke Energy (DUK - Free Report) , also produces a substantial volume of clean energy from its nuclear generation assets. DUK’s earnings beat estimates in three out of the past four quarters, and missed once. The company has an average earnings surprise of 5.51%.
VST Stock Returns Higher Than Its Industry
Return on equity (“ROE”) is a key indicator of a company’s financial performance. It reflects how effectively a corporation uses shareholders' equity to generate profits and is widely regarded as a measure of profitability and operational efficiency.
VST’s trailing 12-month ROE is 108.68%, way ahead of its industry average of 11.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Duke Energy’s ROE is currently pegged at 9.78% lower than the industry.
VST Stock Is Trading at a Discount
Vistra is currently trading at a discounted valuation compared with the industry. Its forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 14.95X compared with the industry average of 15.09X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST’s Debt to Capital
Utilities rely on external financing to fund large infrastructure investments while preserving operating cash flow. Borrowing supports grid upgrades, new generation projects and reliable service, helping utilities meet rising demand and execute long-term growth plans.
Vistra’s long-term debt-to-capital is currently pegged at 78.1%, higher than its industry average of 61.32%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Wrapping Up
Vistra’s effective hedging strategy, improving earnings estimates and above-industry return on equity enhance its appeal. Its diversified generation portfolio also positions the company to benefit from rising power demand and support sustainable long-term growth. The stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present.
VST currently carries higher debt than many of the industry peers, largely reflecting the financing of its sizable acquisitions. Given the elevated leverage, new investors may consider waiting for a more attractive entry point before adding the stock to their portfolios.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
VST Stock Outperforms Industry in the Past 3 Months: Time to Buy?
Key Takeaways
Shares of Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) have gained 3.2% in the past three months against the Zacks Utility- Electric Power industry’s decline of 2.7% and the Zacks Utilities sector’s 2.8% drop.
Long-term PPAs continue to play a vital role in Vistra's strategy, enhancing earnings visibility by expanding the contracted revenue base while still allowing it to benefit from favorable conditions in merchant power markets.
Vistra’s diversified power generation fleet, effective hedging strategies and long-term PPAs support long-term growth, while planned capital investments expand clean power capacity and strengthen grid reliability.
Price Performance (Three months)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Another firm, Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG - Free Report) , also produces a substantial volume of clean energy from its generation assets. Constellation Energy’s shares have gained 19.1% in the past three months.
Vistra has been trading above its 50-day simple moving average (“SMA”), signaling a short-term bullish trend.
The 50-day SMA is a key indicator for traders and analysts to identify support and resistance levels. It is considered particularly important as this is the first marker of an uptrend or downtrend.
VST’s 50 Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Should investors consider adding VST to their portfolio only based on positive price movements? Let’s delve deeper and find out the factors that can help investors decide whether it is a good entry point to add VST stock to their portfolio.
Vistra’s Shares Advance on Favorable Growth Drivers
Vistra operates a fully integrated business model that combines power generation, retail electricity operations and energy storage, supported by disciplined risk management. This structure helps the company balance supply and demand, and generate more stable cash flows and earnings.
Vistra is strengthening earnings visibility through a disciplined hedging strategy that limits near-term exposure to volatile wholesale power prices. As of Aug. 3, 2026, Vistra had hedged roughly 100% of expected generation volumes for 2026, 94% for 2027 and 72% for 2028.
Vistra’s diversified, multi-fuel generation fleet further supports long-term growth. With 43,641 megawatts (MW) of capacity across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery storage, Vistra can adapt to changing market conditions, reduce dependence on individual fuel sources, support grid reliability and efficiently manage fuel and operating costs. The diversified portfolio also positions the company to meet rising commercial and industrial electricity demand while expanding its clean-energy capabilities and capitalizing on favorable market conditions.
Long-term power purchase agreements ("PPAs") extend this earnings protection beyond the hedge book. Vistra has a 20-year agreement with Amazon Web Services for up to 1,200 MW from the Comanche Peak nuclear plant. In January 2026, the company also signed 20-year PPAs with Meta for more than 2,600 MW from its PJM nuclear fleet, including 2,176 MW of existing generation and 433 MW of planned uprates.
Vistra remains committed to disciplined capital deployment, prioritizing nuclear expansion, additional solar and battery storage capacity, and optimization of its natural gas fleet to support peak electricity demand.
VST’s Earnings Estimates Moving North
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 75.1% and 14%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The same for Constellation Energy’s 2026 and 2027 EPS indicates a year-over-year rise of 29.3% and 8.1%, respectively.
VST’s Earnings Surprise History
Vistra’s earnings beat estimates in three out of the past four quarters, and missed once. The company has an average earnings surprise of 19.86%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Another utility, Duke Energy (DUK - Free Report) , also produces a substantial volume of clean energy from its nuclear generation assets. DUK’s earnings beat estimates in three out of the past four quarters, and missed once. The company has an average earnings surprise of 5.51%.
VST Stock Returns Higher Than Its Industry
Return on equity (“ROE”) is a key indicator of a company’s financial performance. It reflects how effectively a corporation uses shareholders' equity to generate profits and is widely regarded as a measure of profitability and operational efficiency.
VST’s trailing 12-month ROE is 108.68%, way ahead of its industry average of 11.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Duke Energy’s ROE is currently pegged at 9.78% lower than the industry.
VST Stock Is Trading at a Discount
Vistra is currently trading at a discounted valuation compared with the industry. Its forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 14.95X compared with the industry average of 15.09X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST’s Debt to Capital
Utilities rely on external financing to fund large infrastructure investments while preserving operating cash flow. Borrowing supports grid upgrades, new generation projects and reliable service, helping utilities meet rising demand and execute long-term growth plans.
Vistra’s long-term debt-to-capital is currently pegged at 78.1%, higher than its industry average of 61.32%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Wrapping Up
Vistra’s effective hedging strategy, improving earnings estimates and above-industry return on equity enhance its appeal. Its diversified generation portfolio also positions the company to benefit from rising power demand and support sustainable long-term growth. The stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present.
VST currently carries higher debt than many of the industry peers, largely reflecting the financing of its sizable acquisitions. Given the elevated leverage, new investors may consider waiting for a more attractive entry point before adding the stock to their portfolios.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.