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Monetary policy makers at the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are preparing key interest rate decisions
Against a backdrop of escalating conflict in the Middle East — and rising energy prices
Elsewhere,
BRICS leaders met in India, over the weekend, and
Swedes headed to the polls on Sunday, in a tight election race that is still too close to call
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) On Wednesday, the U.S. Fed Meeting Breaks Up. Will the FOMC Hike?
Markets head into a pivotal week wondering whether the Federal Reserve is finally ready to pull the trigger on a rate hike to tackle stubborn inflation.
Fed Funds futures point to markets leaning toward a quarter-point increase when policy makers announce their decision on Wednesday, though plenty of investors remain unconvinced.
The central bank has kept rates unchanged throughout 2026, and some traders doubt that will suddenly change now.
Bets on a hike grew after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone last month and were bolstered by a hot August jobs report.
Adding to the suspense, Warsh has made clear he won't offer much forward guidance, leaving markets guessing not just about this meeting, but what comes next.
(2) On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is Pegged to Hike 25 bps to 1.25%
The Bank of Japan may be the easiest central bank call of the month.
Markets are all but certain policymakers will raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, a level not seen in more than three decades.
The bigger question is what comes next. After plenty of jawboning by BOJ officials about the need for policy tightening, investors are already looking beyond September.
Analysts see the BOJ's October and December meetings as live, while swaps fully price in rates reaching 1.5% by January.
The X factor is the yen.
Propping up the currency became a de facto aim of the BOJ as the yen slumped, reaching a four-decade low in July.
A recent rebound has eased that pressure, though investors remain sensitive to any renewed unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, which have rattled assets far beyond Japan's shores.
(3) Energy and Commodity Inflation Are Building Up, Fast
Oil's climb barely raised eyebrows for weeks. Now it has. Brent crude has surged back above $100 a barrel for the first time since July.
Physical prices are above $120. Diesel has hit record highs, jet fuel is nearing April's peaks.
In Europe, natural gas prices are at their highest since late 2022, with winter approaching and gas storage at its lowest level for this time of year in 15 years.
Record-breaking heatwaves this summer have devastated crops and pastures in many regions, igniting the threat of food inflation.
Meanwhile copper, vital for everything from power grids to AI hardware, has raced to record highs near $15,000 a ton.
The number of fires central bankers are fighting is growing fast.
(4) Over the Weekend, the BRICS Leaders Met in India
As BRICS leaders gather in New Delhi on September 12-13, India is pushing an idea that could test the bloc's ambitions: linking central bank digital currencies to make cross-border payments faster and cheaper.
The catch? Politics.
Some members have strained relations, and digital currencies remain a niche experiment in much of the world. Iran and the UAE have severed financial ties amid the Middle East conflict, while India has long been cautious about deeper financial integration with China.
BRICS has flirted before with alternatives to the dollar, including talk of a common currency, but those plans went nowhere. A CBDC link-up may be more modest, yet any move that chips away at the dollar's dominance is likely to draw attention from markets - and irk Washington.
(5) On Sunday, Sweden Went to the Polls
Swedes go to the polls on Sunday in what is shaping up to be one of the country's tightest elections in years.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's center-right coalition has eroded the lead once held by Magdalena Andersson's center-left opposition, turning what once looked like a comfortable opposition victory into a nail-biter race.
The bigger question is what happens afterwards.
The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, backing Kristersson's government since 2022, are pushing for cabinet posts and could gain unprecedented influence over policy, adding to a broader shift to the right across parts of Europe.
For investors, the focus is on spending plans.
The government has already cut taxes on fuel and food, and is promising more tax breaks and free kindergarten places if it wins another term, putting fiscal policy back in the spotlight.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks.
(1) United Health Group (UNH - Free Report) : This is a $379 a share U.S. HMO stock, with a market cap of $348.5B
It is found in the Zacks Medical-HMOs industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
F12M P/E: 19.6.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
UnitedHealth Group provides a wide range of health care products and services, such as health maintenance organizations, point of service plans, preferred provider organizations and managed fee-for-service programs.
UnitedHealth has the most diverse membership base within the managed-care organization market, which gives it significant competitive advantages.
The company has acquired a number of competing healthcare providers, which transformed it from a pure health insurer to a comprehensive healthcare provider.
UnitedHealth reports through two segments: UnitedHealthcare and Optum
UnitedHealthcare is divided into UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual; UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement; UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; providing health care benefits globally.
Optum is a technology-enabled health services business serving the broad health care marketplace, including those who need care. The segment is divided into OptumHealth, OptumInsight, OptumRx and Optum eliminations.
(2) Dell Technologies (DELL - Free Report) : This is a $567 a share stock, with a market cap of $348.3B
It is found in Zacks Computer-Micro Computer industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
F12M P/E: 20.0.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Dell Technologies is a provider of information technology solutions. The company's operating segment consists of Client Solutions, Enterprise Solutions Group (ESG) and Dell Software Group.
Client Solutions segment includes sales to commercial and consumer customers of desktops, thin client products, notebooks as well as services and third-party software and peripherals of Client Solutions hardware.
ESG segment includes servers, networking and storage as well as services and third-party software and peripherals of ESG hardware.
DSG segment includes systems management, security software solutions and information management software offerings.
Dell Technologies is headquartered in Round Rock, Texas.
(3) The Goldman Sachs Group (GS - Free Report) : This is a $1,029 a share stock, with a market cap of $296.9B
It is found in the Zacks Financial-Investment Management industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
F12M P/E: 14.8.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Goldman Sachs Group is a leading global financial holding company providing IB, securities, investment management and consumer banking services to a diversified client base.
It has 4 broad segments.
The IB segment comprises the Financial Advisory, Underwriting and lending to corporate clients.
The Global Markets segment comprises Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities, which include client-execution activities related to making markets in credit products, interest rate products, mortgages, currencies and commodities.
Equities include client execution activities related to making markets in equities, commissions and fees, and its securities services business, warehouse lending & structured financing to institutional clients, advisory and underwriting assignments.
The Consumer & Wealth Management segment includes management and other fees, incentive fees and results from deposit-taking activities related to wealth management business.
The Asset Management division comprises management and other fees.
Key Global Macro
This week traders focus on the Wednesday FOMC meeting and the Dot Plots.
On Monday, the European Central Bank's (ECB) LaGarde gives a speech.
On Tuesday, U.K. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data for August comes out. The U.K. core CPI for August looks to rise to +2.7% y/y from +2.6% y/y in July.
On Wednesday, the FOMC likely hikes the Fed Funds policy rate to 4.0% from 3.75%.
There will be a fresh Summary of Economic Projections, aka the “dot plots.”
On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) likely stays pat at a 3.75% policy rate.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) likely hikes to 1.25% from 1.0%.
On Friday, Baker Hughes oil rig counts get updated. The U.S. is at 450 rigs.
Conclusion
On Sept. 4th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared an earnings look-ahead.
Key points:
(1) S&P 500 profits have expanded for 12 straight quarters, showing powerful momentum that reaches far beyond Big Tech.
That sets a strong backdrop for the start of Q3 earnings season, which began Thursday, September 10th, with quarterly reports from Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) and Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) .
(2) Zacks expects Q3-26 earnings for the S&P500 index to increase by +23% from the same period last year on +11.2% higher revenues.
This would follow the unusually strong showing in Q2-26.
The revisions trend has remained positive, sustaining the favorable trend in place for almost a year now.
(3) For Q3-26, Zacks expects total S&P 500 earnings will increase +23.0% from the same period last year on +11.1% higher revenues.
We expect 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors to enjoy positive earnings growth — and 6 sectors produce double-digit growth.
This will be the most broad-based earnings growth performance in recent times.
(4) Favorable revision patterns are not a new development; they extend a tailwind that has been building for nearly a year.
Historically, these upward adjustments were tightly concentrated in Tech and, more recently, Energy following Middle East supply disruptions.
However, for Q3 2026, the constructive estimate revisions have broadened significantly, rising across 8 of the 16 Zacks sectors – including Transportation, Finance, Aerospace, Industrials, Utilities, and Construction – alongside Tech and Energy.
The Adobe and Oracle quarterly reports referenced earlier will be for the companies’ fiscal quarters ending in August, which we count as part of our September-quarter tally.
In fact, we will be counting these earnings releases as effectively kick-starting this Q3 reporting cycle.
That said, the Q3 earnings season will really get going when the big banks come out with their quarterly results in mid-October.
(5) As with Q2 expectations, the Tech sector has an outsized impact on the annual earnings picture as well.
Total Tech sector earnings are expected to increase +52.3% from the same period last year on +23% higher revenues.
Excluding the Tech sector’s substantial contribution, total S&P 500 earnings for the year would be up +14.9% (versus +27.6% otherwise).
That’s a wrap for this Global Week Ahead.
Kind Regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
The Fed May Hike: Global Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
What happens across this Global Week Ahead?
Elsewhere,
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) On Wednesday, the U.S. Fed Meeting Breaks Up. Will the FOMC Hike?
Markets head into a pivotal week wondering whether the Federal Reserve is finally ready to pull the trigger on a rate hike to tackle stubborn inflation.
Fed Funds futures point to markets leaning toward a quarter-point increase when policy makers announce their decision on Wednesday, though plenty of investors remain unconvinced.
The central bank has kept rates unchanged throughout 2026, and some traders doubt that will suddenly change now.
Bets on a hike grew after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone last month and were bolstered by a hot August jobs report.
Adding to the suspense, Warsh has made clear he won't offer much forward guidance, leaving markets guessing not just about this meeting, but what comes next.
(2) On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is Pegged to Hike 25 bps to 1.25%
The Bank of Japan may be the easiest central bank call of the month.
Markets are all but certain policymakers will raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, a level not seen in more than three decades.
The bigger question is what comes next. After plenty of jawboning by BOJ officials about the need for policy tightening, investors are already looking beyond September.
Analysts see the BOJ's October and December meetings as live, while swaps fully price in rates reaching 1.5% by January.
The X factor is the yen.
Propping up the currency became a de facto aim of the BOJ as the yen slumped, reaching a four-decade low in July.
A recent rebound has eased that pressure, though investors remain sensitive to any renewed unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, which have rattled assets far beyond Japan's shores.
(3) Energy and Commodity Inflation Are Building Up, Fast
Oil's climb barely raised eyebrows for weeks. Now it has. Brent crude has surged back above $100 a barrel for the first time since July.
Physical prices are above $120. Diesel has hit record highs, jet fuel is nearing April's peaks.
In Europe, natural gas prices are at their highest since late 2022, with winter approaching and gas storage at its lowest level for this time of year in 15 years.
Record-breaking heatwaves this summer have devastated crops and pastures in many regions, igniting the threat of food inflation.
Meanwhile copper, vital for everything from power grids to AI hardware, has raced to record highs near $15,000 a ton.
The number of fires central bankers are fighting is growing fast.
(4) Over the Weekend, the BRICS Leaders Met in India
As BRICS leaders gather in New Delhi on September 12-13, India is pushing an idea that could test the bloc's ambitions: linking central bank digital currencies to make cross-border payments faster and cheaper.
The catch? Politics.
Some members have strained relations, and digital currencies remain a niche experiment in much of the world. Iran and the UAE have severed financial ties amid the Middle East conflict, while India has long been cautious about deeper financial integration with China.
BRICS has flirted before with alternatives to the dollar, including talk of a common currency, but those plans went nowhere. A CBDC link-up may be more modest, yet any move that chips away at the dollar's dominance is likely to draw attention from markets - and irk Washington.
(5) On Sunday, Sweden Went to the Polls
Swedes go to the polls on Sunday in what is shaping up to be one of the country's tightest elections in years.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's center-right coalition has eroded the lead once held by Magdalena Andersson's center-left opposition, turning what once looked like a comfortable opposition victory into a nail-biter race.
The bigger question is what happens afterwards.
The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, backing Kristersson's government since 2022, are pushing for cabinet posts and could gain unprecedented influence over policy, adding to a broader shift to the right across parts of Europe.
For investors, the focus is on spending plans.
The government has already cut taxes on fuel and food, and is promising more tax breaks and free kindergarten places if it wins another term, putting fiscal policy back in the spotlight.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks.
(1) United Health Group (UNH - Free Report) : This is a $379 a share U.S. HMO stock, with a market cap of $348.5B
It is found in the Zacks Medical-HMOs industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
F12M P/E: 19.6.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
UnitedHealth Group provides a wide range of health care products and services, such as health maintenance organizations, point of service plans, preferred provider organizations and managed fee-for-service programs.
UnitedHealth has the most diverse membership base within the managed-care organization market, which gives it significant competitive advantages.
The company has acquired a number of competing healthcare providers, which transformed it from a pure health insurer to a comprehensive healthcare provider.
UnitedHealth reports through two segments: UnitedHealthcare and Optum
(2) Dell Technologies (DELL - Free Report) : This is a $567 a share stock, with a market cap of $348.3B
It is found in Zacks Computer-Micro Computer industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
F12M P/E: 20.0.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Dell Technologies is a provider of information technology solutions. The company's operating segment consists of Client Solutions, Enterprise Solutions Group (ESG) and Dell Software Group.
Dell Technologies is headquartered in Round Rock, Texas.
(3) The Goldman Sachs Group (GS - Free Report) : This is a $1,029 a share stock, with a market cap of $296.9B
It is found in the Zacks Financial-Investment Management industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
F12M P/E: 14.8.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Goldman Sachs Group is a leading global financial holding company providing IB, securities, investment management and consumer banking services to a diversified client base.
It has 4 broad segments.
The IB segment comprises the Financial Advisory, Underwriting and lending to corporate clients.
The Global Markets segment comprises Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities, which include client-execution activities related to making markets in credit products, interest rate products, mortgages, currencies and commodities.
Equities include client execution activities related to making markets in equities, commissions and fees, and its securities services business, warehouse lending & structured financing to institutional clients, advisory and underwriting assignments.
The Consumer & Wealth Management segment includes management and other fees, incentive fees and results from deposit-taking activities related to wealth management business.
The Asset Management division comprises management and other fees.
Key Global Macro
This week traders focus on the Wednesday FOMC meeting and the Dot Plots.
On Monday, the European Central Bank's (ECB) LaGarde gives a speech.
On Tuesday, U.K. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data for August comes out. The U.K. core CPI for August looks to rise to +2.7% y/y from +2.6% y/y in July.
On Wednesday, the FOMC likely hikes the Fed Funds policy rate to 4.0% from 3.75%.
There will be a fresh Summary of Economic Projections, aka the “dot plots.”
On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) likely stays pat at a 3.75% policy rate.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) likely hikes to 1.25% from 1.0%.
On Friday, Baker Hughes oil rig counts get updated. The U.S. is at 450 rigs.
Conclusion
On Sept. 4th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared an earnings look-ahead.
Key points:
(1) S&P 500 profits have expanded for 12 straight quarters, showing powerful momentum that reaches far beyond Big Tech.
That sets a strong backdrop for the start of Q3 earnings season, which began Thursday, September 10th, with quarterly reports from Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) and Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) .
(2) Zacks expects Q3-26 earnings for the S&P500 index to increase by +23% from the same period last year on +11.2% higher revenues.
This would follow the unusually strong showing in Q2-26.
The revisions trend has remained positive, sustaining the favorable trend in place for almost a year now.
(3) For Q3-26, Zacks expects total S&P 500 earnings will increase +23.0% from the same period last year on +11.1% higher revenues.
We expect 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors to enjoy positive earnings growth — and 6 sectors produce double-digit growth.
This will be the most broad-based earnings growth performance in recent times.
(4) Favorable revision patterns are not a new development; they extend a tailwind that has been building for nearly a year.
Historically, these upward adjustments were tightly concentrated in Tech and, more recently, Energy following Middle East supply disruptions.
However, for Q3 2026, the constructive estimate revisions have broadened significantly, rising across 8 of the 16 Zacks sectors – including Transportation, Finance, Aerospace, Industrials, Utilities, and Construction – alongside Tech and Energy.
The Adobe and Oracle quarterly reports referenced earlier will be for the companies’ fiscal quarters ending in August, which we count as part of our September-quarter tally.
In fact, we will be counting these earnings releases as effectively kick-starting this Q3 reporting cycle.
That said, the Q3 earnings season will really get going when the big banks come out with their quarterly results in mid-October.
(5) As with Q2 expectations, the Tech sector has an outsized impact on the annual earnings picture as well.
Total Tech sector earnings are expected to increase +52.3% from the same period last year on +23% higher revenues.
Excluding the Tech sector’s substantial contribution, total S&P 500 earnings for the year would be up +14.9% (versus +27.6% otherwise).
That’s a wrap for this Global Week Ahead.
Kind Regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist