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Is Cancer the Turnaround Moderna Has Been Looking for Post-COVID?
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Key Takeaways
Moderna's positive phase III melanoma results validate its mRNA cancer strategy beyond vaccines.
Intismeran autogene is being tested across nine phase II and III studies in multiple tumor types.
Moderna is expanding beyond COVID-19 with RSV, flu and combination respiratory vaccines.
Shares of Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) have staged a remarkable comeback this year as investors increasingly warm to the possibility that the company can rebuild its business beyond COVID-19 vaccines. After becoming one of the biggest pandemic winners, Moderna struggled with sharply lower COVID-19 vaccine demand, declining revenues and mounting losses, sending its stock tumbling from its pandemic-era highs.
However, the narrative is beginning to change. Progress across its vaccine portfolio, a broadening pipeline and efforts to streamline costs have strengthened the long-term outlook. More recently, a positive phase III readout for Moderna’s personalized mRNA cancer therapy, developed with Merck (MRK - Free Report) , has provided an important clinical validation for the company’s ambitions beyond infectious diseases.
The key question now is whether cancer could be the turnaround Moderna has been seeking in the post-COVID era.
Moderna’s Cancer Win Opens a New Growth Avenue
The company has received a major validation for its ambitions beyond COVID-19 with intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157). Last month, Moderna and Merck reported positive results from the late-stage INTerpath-001 study, which evaluated intismeran in combination with Merck’s Keytruda in patients with high-risk (Stage IIB-IV) melanoma whose tumors had been removed through surgery. The study met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival. Although the companies did not report any numerical data to support the results, they stated that the improvements were both statistically significant and clinically meaningful.
The significance of the results extends beyond melanoma. INTerpath-001 marks the first positive phase III readout for an individualized neoantigen therapy and an mRNA-based cancer therapy, providing Moderna with an important proof point for its strategy of applying mRNA technology beyond vaccines. The study is still ongoing, with overall survival among the key endpoints being evaluated. Detailed data are expected to be presented at a future medical meeting, while Moderna and Merck plan to engage regulators on potential filings.
The result is particularly encouraging given the durability of the earlier-stage data. Five-year follow-up from the phase IIb KEYNOTE-942 study showed that the combination reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% and the risk of distant metastasis or death by 59% versus Keytruda alone.
The positive melanoma results could be just the first step toward building a much larger oncology franchise for Moderna. The company and Merck are evaluating intismeran autogene across nine phase II and phase III studies spanning multiple tumor types, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma. The goal is to determine whether the approach that showed promise in melanoma can be replicated across different tumor types.
What makes the opportunity particularly interesting is the personalized nature of the therapy. Intismeran uses mutations identified from an individual patient’s tumor to generate a personalized mRNA treatment designed to stimulate an immune response against cancer-specific targets. The success in INTerpath-001 therefore provides a potentially important proof of concept for applying this approach across additional cancers.
The broader oncology pipeline also extends beyond intismeran. Moderna is developing separate mRNA-based cancer antigen therapies, a T-cell engager and a cell-therapy enhancer, providing additional opportunities for its mRNA platform to gain a foothold in cancer treatment.
For Moderna, success across multiple tumor types could transform intismeran from a promising melanoma therapy into a broader oncology franchise, giving the company another potential engine of growth beyond COVID-19 vaccines.
Moderna Rebuilds Its Vaccine Business Beyond COVID-19
Moderna’s respiratory business has evolved considerably from its origins as a COVID-19 vaccine-maker and is working to build a broader respiratory vaccine franchise.
Beyond COVID, Moderna has expanded its vaccine portfolio into other respiratory areas, first with RSV through mResvia and, more recently, by entering the seasonal influenza market with mFlusiva. The portfolio has also moved beyond standalone vaccines with mCombriax, which combines influenza and COVID-19 protection in a single product and became the first approved vaccine of its kind in the European Union.
For Moderna, the strategy is important because it reduces the company’s dependence on COVID-19 vaccine sales, which not only faces normalization in demand but also stiff competition from Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) /BioNTech’s Comirnaty and Novavax (NVAX - Free Report) /Sanofi’s Nuvaxovid.
Moderna’s ambitions extend beyond its respiratory vaccine and oncology programs, with the company using its mRNA platform to pursue a range of newer therapeutic approaches. The company’s pipeline includes an in-vivo CAR-T program aimed at autoimmune diseases, while other emerging modalities are being developed with the potential to expand the applications of mRNA technology.
Though the commercial potential of these programs is difficult to assess given their early-stage development, they provide Moderna with additional opportunities to leverage its mRNA expertise across different therapeutic areas and could become important sources of growth over the longer term.
MRNA’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Moderna have skyrocketed nearly 400% year to date, significantly outperforming the industry’s 7% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, the company is currently trading at a premium to the industry. Based on the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, the stock trades at 23.44 times forward 12-month sales, higher than the industry average of 1.90 times.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Estimates for Moderna’s 2026 and 2027 loss per share have improved over the past 30 days.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Is Cancer the Turnaround Moderna Has Been Looking for Post-COVID?
Key Takeaways
Shares of Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) have staged a remarkable comeback this year as investors increasingly warm to the possibility that the company can rebuild its business beyond COVID-19 vaccines. After becoming one of the biggest pandemic winners, Moderna struggled with sharply lower COVID-19 vaccine demand, declining revenues and mounting losses, sending its stock tumbling from its pandemic-era highs.
However, the narrative is beginning to change. Progress across its vaccine portfolio, a broadening pipeline and efforts to streamline costs have strengthened the long-term outlook. More recently, a positive phase III readout for Moderna’s personalized mRNA cancer therapy, developed with Merck (MRK - Free Report) , has provided an important clinical validation for the company’s ambitions beyond infectious diseases.
The key question now is whether cancer could be the turnaround Moderna has been seeking in the post-COVID era.
Moderna’s Cancer Win Opens a New Growth Avenue
The company has received a major validation for its ambitions beyond COVID-19 with intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157). Last month, Moderna and Merck reported positive results from the late-stage INTerpath-001 study, which evaluated intismeran in combination with Merck’s Keytruda in patients with high-risk (Stage IIB-IV) melanoma whose tumors had been removed through surgery. The study met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival. Although the companies did not report any numerical data to support the results, they stated that the improvements were both statistically significant and clinically meaningful.
The significance of the results extends beyond melanoma. INTerpath-001 marks the first positive phase III readout for an individualized neoantigen therapy and an mRNA-based cancer therapy, providing Moderna with an important proof point for its strategy of applying mRNA technology beyond vaccines. The study is still ongoing, with overall survival among the key endpoints being evaluated. Detailed data are expected to be presented at a future medical meeting, while Moderna and Merck plan to engage regulators on potential filings.
The result is particularly encouraging given the durability of the earlier-stage data. Five-year follow-up from the phase IIb KEYNOTE-942 study showed that the combination reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% and the risk of distant metastasis or death by 59% versus Keytruda alone.
MRNA’s Oncology Opportunity Extends Beyond Melanoma
The positive melanoma results could be just the first step toward building a much larger oncology franchise for Moderna. The company and Merck are evaluating intismeran autogene across nine phase II and phase III studies spanning multiple tumor types, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma. The goal is to determine whether the approach that showed promise in melanoma can be replicated across different tumor types.
What makes the opportunity particularly interesting is the personalized nature of the therapy. Intismeran uses mutations identified from an individual patient’s tumor to generate a personalized mRNA treatment designed to stimulate an immune response against cancer-specific targets. The success in INTerpath-001 therefore provides a potentially important proof of concept for applying this approach across additional cancers.
The broader oncology pipeline also extends beyond intismeran. Moderna is developing separate mRNA-based cancer antigen therapies, a T-cell engager and a cell-therapy enhancer, providing additional opportunities for its mRNA platform to gain a foothold in cancer treatment.
For Moderna, success across multiple tumor types could transform intismeran from a promising melanoma therapy into a broader oncology franchise, giving the company another potential engine of growth beyond COVID-19 vaccines.
Moderna Rebuilds Its Vaccine Business Beyond COVID-19
Moderna’s respiratory business has evolved considerably from its origins as a COVID-19 vaccine-maker and is working to build a broader respiratory vaccine franchise.
Beyond COVID, Moderna has expanded its vaccine portfolio into other respiratory areas, first with RSV through mResvia and, more recently, by entering the seasonal influenza market with mFlusiva. The portfolio has also moved beyond standalone vaccines with mCombriax, which combines influenza and COVID-19 protection in a single product and became the first approved vaccine of its kind in the European Union.
For Moderna, the strategy is important because it reduces the company’s dependence on COVID-19 vaccine sales, which not only faces normalization in demand but also stiff competition from Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) /BioNTech’s Comirnaty and Novavax (NVAX - Free Report) /Sanofi’s Nuvaxovid.
Moderna’s mRNA Platform Provides Long-Term Growth Potential
Moderna’s ambitions extend beyond its respiratory vaccine and oncology programs, with the company using its mRNA platform to pursue a range of newer therapeutic approaches. The company’s pipeline includes an in-vivo CAR-T program aimed at autoimmune diseases, while other emerging modalities are being developed with the potential to expand the applications of mRNA technology.
Though the commercial potential of these programs is difficult to assess given their early-stage development, they provide Moderna with additional opportunities to leverage its mRNA expertise across different therapeutic areas and could become important sources of growth over the longer term.
MRNA’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Moderna have skyrocketed nearly 400% year to date, significantly outperforming the industry’s 7% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, the company is currently trading at a premium to the industry. Based on the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, the stock trades at 23.44 times forward 12-month sales, higher than the industry average of 1.90 times.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Estimates for Moderna’s 2026 and 2027 loss per share have improved over the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Moderna currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.