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McDonald's vs. Restaurant Brands: Which Stock Is the Better Buy?
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Key Takeaways
QSR's Burger King posted 8.6% comparable sales growth, fueled by Whopper strategy and restaurant remodels.
QSR's 2026 EPS growth estimate of 9.5% outpaces MCD's 5.6%, while 2027 expectations improve.
MCD's digital investments and beverage platform offer growth potential despite weak U.S. execution.
McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) and Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) are two prominent players in the global quick-service restaurant industry, supported by well-established burger brands and franchise-driven business models.
Both companies are navigating evolving consumer preferences, value-conscious spending and opportunities for international expansion. While McDonald's benefits from its extensive global footprint and brand recognition, Restaurant Brands is focused on strengthening portfolio through brands like Burger King, Tim Hortons and Popeyes. For investors seeking exposure to the restaurant sector, comparing their growth strategies, profitability, valuation and earnings outlook can help assess the factors shaping their investment potential.
The Case for MCD
McDonald’s continues to benefit from the strength of its global brand and an increasingly powerful digital platform. The company has nearly 220 million active loyalty users, while its delivery business generates more than $20 billion in annual system-wide sales. Management also highlighted progress toward integrating major markets onto common digital, pricing, HR and finance systems, which could create cost efficiencies and provide a stronger foundation for artificial intelligence initiatives.
The newly launched beverage platform is showing encouraging early traction in the United States, Canada and Germany. Management said sales were ahead of plan in the United States, with higher guest checks, increased food attachment and new customer occasions emerging throughout the day. More than half of beverage-related traffic is coming after lunch, while average checks are about 50% above the full-day average check, pointing to potential incremental sales and restaurant-level cash-flow benefits as the platform expands.
McDonald’s still has room to grow through new restaurant openings and productivity initiatives. Despite pushing its 50,000-restaurant target to 2028 from 2027, the company remains on track to open about 2,600 gross restaurants in 2026. Meanwhile, investments in global systems are expected to start generating efficiency benefits in 2027, and McDonald’s NEXT is designed to combine restaurant simplification, productivity improvements and stronger customer experiences.
The biggest concern is weak execution in the U.S. business. Second-quarter comparable sales increased just 0.8%, as inconsistent execution of the under-$3 Everyday Affordable Price menu, reduced digital offers and an overly crowded promotional calendar hurt customer traffic. Management acknowledged that restaurant teams were overwhelmed by multiple product and marketing deployments, which contributed to longer service times and lower customer satisfaction. U.S. comparable sales were also slightly negative in July, suggesting that the turnaround may take time to gain traction.
The Case for QSR
A key positive for Restaurant Brands is the improving performance of Burger King. The brand posted 8.6% comparable sales growth in second-quarter 2026, while U.S. same-store sales increased 8.5%, helped by the Whopper-focused brand elevation strategy, restaurant remodels and operational improvements. Management said Whopper platform average unit volumes have risen more than 20% since the elevation campaign began, suggesting that the investments are translating into stronger customer engagement.
QSR’s international business remains an important source of expansion, with second-quarter comparable sales rising 5.5% and net restaurant growth reaching 5.1%, resulting in 10.7% system-wide sales growth. Growth was broad-based across markets including Germany, Spain, Brazil, China, Korea and Japan. Management also highlighted improving unit economics and average paybacks of roughly 4.5 years across its top 10 growth markets, supporting the company’s longer-term objective of returning to 5% net restaurant growth.
QSR’s portfolio of Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs gives it multiple avenues for growth. In the second quarter, the company delivered 3.8% same-store sales growth, 2.9% net restaurant growth, 6.7% organic adjusted operating income growth and 12.9% adjusted EPS growth. Tim Hortons and International also recorded their 21st consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales, providing stability even as individual brands move through different stages of their growth cycles.
The main concern is uneven performance across QSR’s brands, particularly Popeyes in the United States. U.S. same-store sales declined 5.2% in the second quarter, resulting in a 3.3% decline in system-wide sales despite modest net restaurant growth. Management is addressing the weakness through better operations, menu simplification, increased field support and value offerings, and expects a return to positive comparable sales in the second half of 2026. However, the turnaround remains an important execution factor for the company's overall growth trajectory.
How Do MCD and QSR Stack Up on Estimates?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for McDonald’s’ 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates year-over-year growth of 4.8% and 5.6%, respectively. Analysts have raised their 2026 EPS estimate over the past 60 days, reflecting improved earnings expectations. However, the consensus EPS estimate for 2027 has declined during the same period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For Restaurant Brands, the 2026 sales and EPS estimates suggest year-over-year growth of 3.9% and 9.5%, respectively. The consensus EPS estimate for 2026 has remained unchanged over the past 60 days, while the 2027 earnings estimate has moved higher, indicating improving expectations for future profitability.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation
MCD’s shares have lost 18.1% over the past year, compared with the industry’s 11.6% decline for the industry. In contrast, QSR has delivered stronger stock-price momentum, with shares gaining 12.6% during the same period.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, both stocks are trading below their respective one-year median forward P/E multiples. MCD currently trades at 18.22X forward 12-month earnings, below its one-year median of 22.69X. QSR trades at 16.91X, also below its one-year median of 17.54X. This suggests that both stocks are trading at relatively discounted valuations compared with their recent historical levels.
P/E (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Conclusion
Although both McDonald’s and Restaurant Brands carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), the latter currently appears slightly ahead based on stronger share-price momentum, faster expected earnings growth and improving performance at Burger King and its international operations. The company’s diversified brand portfolio and restaurant expansion initiatives provide additional growth opportunities, while its valuation remains below the historical level.
McDonald’s benefits from a powerful global brand, digital capabilities and long-term productivity initiatives, but weak U.S. execution and softer stock performance continue to weigh on its near-term outlook. However, QSR’s exposure to Popeyes’ ongoing U.S. weakness presents an execution risk. Overall, QSR’s stronger growth trajectory and operating momentum give it a modest edge, although both stocks warrant a balanced assessment given their hold ratings and respective business challenges.
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McDonald's vs. Restaurant Brands: Which Stock Is the Better Buy?
Key Takeaways
McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) and Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) are two prominent players in the global quick-service restaurant industry, supported by well-established burger brands and franchise-driven business models.
Both companies are navigating evolving consumer preferences, value-conscious spending and opportunities for international expansion. While McDonald's benefits from its extensive global footprint and brand recognition, Restaurant Brands is focused on strengthening portfolio through brands like Burger King, Tim Hortons and Popeyes. For investors seeking exposure to the restaurant sector, comparing their growth strategies, profitability, valuation and earnings outlook can help assess the factors shaping their investment potential.
The Case for MCD
McDonald’s continues to benefit from the strength of its global brand and an increasingly powerful digital platform. The company has nearly 220 million active loyalty users, while its delivery business generates more than $20 billion in annual system-wide sales. Management also highlighted progress toward integrating major markets onto common digital, pricing, HR and finance systems, which could create cost efficiencies and provide a stronger foundation for artificial intelligence initiatives.
The newly launched beverage platform is showing encouraging early traction in the United States, Canada and Germany. Management said sales were ahead of plan in the United States, with higher guest checks, increased food attachment and new customer occasions emerging throughout the day. More than half of beverage-related traffic is coming after lunch, while average checks are about 50% above the full-day average check, pointing to potential incremental sales and restaurant-level cash-flow benefits as the platform expands.
McDonald’s still has room to grow through new restaurant openings and productivity initiatives. Despite pushing its 50,000-restaurant target to 2028 from 2027, the company remains on track to open about 2,600 gross restaurants in 2026. Meanwhile, investments in global systems are expected to start generating efficiency benefits in 2027, and McDonald’s NEXT is designed to combine restaurant simplification, productivity improvements and stronger customer experiences.
The biggest concern is weak execution in the U.S. business. Second-quarter comparable sales increased just 0.8%, as inconsistent execution of the under-$3 Everyday Affordable Price menu, reduced digital offers and an overly crowded promotional calendar hurt customer traffic. Management acknowledged that restaurant teams were overwhelmed by multiple product and marketing deployments, which contributed to longer service times and lower customer satisfaction. U.S. comparable sales were also slightly negative in July, suggesting that the turnaround may take time to gain traction.
The Case for QSR
A key positive for Restaurant Brands is the improving performance of Burger King. The brand posted 8.6% comparable sales growth in second-quarter 2026, while U.S. same-store sales increased 8.5%, helped by the Whopper-focused brand elevation strategy, restaurant remodels and operational improvements. Management said Whopper platform average unit volumes have risen more than 20% since the elevation campaign began, suggesting that the investments are translating into stronger customer engagement.
QSR’s international business remains an important source of expansion, with second-quarter comparable sales rising 5.5% and net restaurant growth reaching 5.1%, resulting in 10.7% system-wide sales growth. Growth was broad-based across markets including Germany, Spain, Brazil, China, Korea and Japan. Management also highlighted improving unit economics and average paybacks of roughly 4.5 years across its top 10 growth markets, supporting the company’s longer-term objective of returning to 5% net restaurant growth.
QSR’s portfolio of Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs gives it multiple avenues for growth. In the second quarter, the company delivered 3.8% same-store sales growth, 2.9% net restaurant growth, 6.7% organic adjusted operating income growth and 12.9% adjusted EPS growth. Tim Hortons and International also recorded their 21st consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales, providing stability even as individual brands move through different stages of their growth cycles.
The main concern is uneven performance across QSR’s brands, particularly Popeyes in the United States. U.S. same-store sales declined 5.2% in the second quarter, resulting in a 3.3% decline in system-wide sales despite modest net restaurant growth. Management is addressing the weakness through better operations, menu simplification, increased field support and value offerings, and expects a return to positive comparable sales in the second half of 2026. However, the turnaround remains an important execution factor for the company's overall growth trajectory.
How Do MCD and QSR Stack Up on Estimates?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for McDonald’s’ 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates year-over-year growth of 4.8% and 5.6%, respectively. Analysts have raised their 2026 EPS estimate over the past 60 days, reflecting improved earnings expectations. However, the consensus EPS estimate for 2027 has declined during the same period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For Restaurant Brands, the 2026 sales and EPS estimates suggest year-over-year growth of 3.9% and 9.5%, respectively. The consensus EPS estimate for 2026 has remained unchanged over the past 60 days, while the 2027 earnings estimate has moved higher, indicating improving expectations for future profitability.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation
MCD’s shares have lost 18.1% over the past year, compared with the industry’s 11.6% decline for the industry. In contrast, QSR has delivered stronger stock-price momentum, with shares gaining 12.6% during the same period.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, both stocks are trading below their respective one-year median forward P/E multiples. MCD currently trades at 18.22X forward 12-month earnings, below its one-year median of 22.69X. QSR trades at 16.91X, also below its one-year median of 17.54X. This suggests that both stocks are trading at relatively discounted valuations compared with their recent historical levels.
P/E (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Conclusion
Although both McDonald’s and Restaurant Brands carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), the latter currently appears slightly ahead based on stronger share-price momentum, faster expected earnings growth and improving performance at Burger King and its international operations. The company’s diversified brand portfolio and restaurant expansion initiatives provide additional growth opportunities, while its valuation remains below the historical level.
McDonald’s benefits from a powerful global brand, digital capabilities and long-term productivity initiatives, but weak U.S. execution and softer stock performance continue to weigh on its near-term outlook. However, QSR’s exposure to Popeyes’ ongoing U.S. weakness presents an execution risk. Overall, QSR’s stronger growth trajectory and operating momentum give it a modest edge, although both stocks warrant a balanced assessment given their hold ratings and respective business challenges.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.