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Ford's EV Sales Plunge 80% Y/Y in Q3: Hold or Fold F Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Ford's Q3 EV sales fell about 80% as demand softened and last year's incentive-driven base was unusually high.
F-Series remains a key strength, while Ford Pro paid software subscriptions rose more than 40% year over year.
Ford expects Model e to lose about $4 billion in 2026, though losses have improved year over year.
Ford's (F - Free Report) electric vehicle (EV) numbers for third-quarter 2026 look ugly at first glance. EV sales were down 67.5% year over year through September, with the third quarter alone falling about 80%, per CNBC. But the number needs context before you hit the sell button.
Why Ford’s EV Drop Looks Worse Than It Is
Last year's third quarter was an unusually strong comparison. Buyers rushed to purchase EVs before U.S. President Donald Trump ended federal incentives up to $7,500, which pulled demand forward and gave Ford record EV sales in that period. Part of the fall reflects a very high base from last year.
That said, the trend is real. Demand for EVs without subsidies is softer, and Ford is adjusting its priorities around that fact.
The Core Business Is Holding Up
Total third-quarter sales were 509,764 vehicles, down 6.6%, which Ford attributes largely to planned portfolio changes such as retiring the Escape and Corsair. Adjusting for that, Ford estimates its retail share rose about 0.4 percentage points to 12.1%.
The truck franchise remains the anchor for Ford. F-Series posted the highest retail share and retail revenues among full-line truck brands, with the lowest incentive spending in its segment, and it is on track to be America's best-selling truck for the 50th straight year. Super Duty also delivered its best quarterly production in 19 years. Ford is leaning into trucks, large SUVs, off-road models and richer trims, because that is where pricing power and margins sit.
That said, a supplier issue halted F-150 production from Sept. 24 to 30, but Ford says the impact is containable within its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance of $10-$11 billion.
Ford was the third-largest selling automaker in the country, behind General Motors (GM - Free Report) and Toyota (TM - Free Report) . General Motors' third-quarter deliveries also fell around 6% year over year to 670, 974 units.Toyota sold 633,223 vehicles in the third quarter, up 0.6% year over year. Like Ford, General Motors also witnessed a huge drop in EV sales during the quarter, whereas Toyota’s electrified vehicle sales, including hybrids, increased 28.5%.
The Growth Bets Beyond Trucks
Ford Pro, the commercial division, is becoming the growth engine of the company. By bundling software and services with vehicles, it builds recurring, higher-margin revenues, the kind markets tend to reward with better valuations. Active paid software subscriptions topped 1.7 million through September, up more than 40% from a year ago.
Two newer efforts add optionality. Ford Energy applies the company's battery manufacturing and monitoring know-how to energy storage, and an agreement with EDF Power Solutions North America gives it an early commercial path. Meanwhile, the Fathom, a midsize electric pickup targeting a price below $30,000, is slated for 2027 deliveries. If Ford can build it at a sensible margin, it could finally crack the affordable end of the EV market.
The Costs That Keep the Stock in Check
Ford's Model e unit lost $919 million in the second quarter. To its credit, that was the third straight quarter of year-over-year improvement, but it remains a heavy drag. Management expects a full-year 2026 loss of about $4 billion from the Model e unit. Capital spending is guided in the range of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion this year across trucks, the Universal EV platform, Ford Energy, software and manufacturing changes, and commodity costs are expected to exceed $2 billion.
On the income side, the dividend yield of roughly 5% makes Ford one of the highest-yielding auto stocks. That said, the company hasn't raised the payout since 2022 but has occasionally paid supplemental dividends.
Ford shares currently trade at 6.31X forward earnings, lower than its five-year average but higher than its closest peer General Motors’ 5.42.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s 2026 and 2027 EPS implies year-over-year growth of 71% and 4.4%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Take
The massive EV drop headline grabs attention but is only one part of the business. Trucks are gaining share without heavy discounting, and Ford Pro's subscriptions keep growing. Ford's energy-related opportunities and solid liquidity provide additional financial flexibility. And while a $4 billion EV loss is projected for this year, losses from the Model e segment are slowly narrowing.
As such, it doesn’t seem prudent to sell Ford stock now. Existing shareholders should stay invested for the long haul, and new investors should wait for more clarity and updates from the third-quarter earnings release.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Ford's EV Sales Plunge 80% Y/Y in Q3: Hold or Fold F Stock?
Key Takeaways
Ford's (F - Free Report) electric vehicle (EV) numbers for third-quarter 2026 look ugly at first glance. EV sales were down 67.5% year over year through September, with the third quarter alone falling about 80%, per CNBC. But the number needs context before you hit the sell button.
Why Ford’s EV Drop Looks Worse Than It Is
Last year's third quarter was an unusually strong comparison. Buyers rushed to purchase EVs before U.S. President Donald Trump ended federal incentives up to $7,500, which pulled demand forward and gave Ford record EV sales in that period. Part of the fall reflects a very high base from last year.
That said, the trend is real. Demand for EVs without subsidies is softer, and Ford is adjusting its priorities around that fact.
The Core Business Is Holding Up
Total third-quarter sales were 509,764 vehicles, down 6.6%, which Ford attributes largely to planned portfolio changes such as retiring the Escape and Corsair. Adjusting for that, Ford estimates its retail share rose about 0.4 percentage points to 12.1%.
The truck franchise remains the anchor for Ford. F-Series posted the highest retail share and retail revenues among full-line truck brands, with the lowest incentive spending in its segment, and it is on track to be America's best-selling truck for the 50th straight year. Super Duty also delivered its best quarterly production in 19 years. Ford is leaning into trucks, large SUVs, off-road models and richer trims, because that is where pricing power and margins sit.
That said, a supplier issue halted F-150 production from Sept. 24 to 30, but Ford says the impact is containable within its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance of $10-$11 billion.
Ford was the third-largest selling automaker in the country, behind General Motors (GM - Free Report) and Toyota (TM - Free Report) . General Motors' third-quarter deliveries also fell around 6% year over year to 670, 974 units.Toyota sold 633,223 vehicles in the third quarter, up 0.6% year over year. Like Ford, General Motors also witnessed a huge drop in EV sales during the quarter, whereas Toyota’s electrified vehicle sales, including hybrids, increased 28.5%.
The Growth Bets Beyond Trucks
Ford Pro, the commercial division, is becoming the growth engine of the company. By bundling software and services with vehicles, it builds recurring, higher-margin revenues, the kind markets tend to reward with better valuations. Active paid software subscriptions topped 1.7 million through September, up more than 40% from a year ago.
Two newer efforts add optionality. Ford Energy applies the company's battery manufacturing and monitoring know-how to energy storage, and an agreement with EDF Power Solutions North America gives it an early commercial path. Meanwhile, the Fathom, a midsize electric pickup targeting a price below $30,000, is slated for 2027 deliveries. If Ford can build it at a sensible margin, it could finally crack the affordable end of the EV market.
The Costs That Keep the Stock in Check
Ford's Model e unit lost $919 million in the second quarter. To its credit, that was the third straight quarter of year-over-year improvement, but it remains a heavy drag. Management expects a full-year 2026 loss of about $4 billion from the Model e unit. Capital spending is guided in the range of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion this year across trucks, the Universal EV platform, Ford Energy, software and manufacturing changes, and commodity costs are expected to exceed $2 billion.
On the income side, the dividend yield of roughly 5% makes Ford one of the highest-yielding auto stocks. That said, the company hasn't raised the payout since 2022 but has occasionally paid supplemental dividends.
Ford Motor Company Dividend Yield (TTM)
Ford Motor Company dividend-yield-ttm | Ford Motor Company Quote
F Stock Valuation & Estimates
Ford shares currently trade at 6.31X forward earnings, lower than its five-year average but higher than its closest peer General Motors’ 5.42.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s 2026 and 2027 EPS implies year-over-year growth of 71% and 4.4%, respectively.
Our Take
The massive EV drop headline grabs attention but is only one part of the business. Trucks are gaining share without heavy discounting, and Ford Pro's subscriptions keep growing. Ford's energy-related opportunities and solid liquidity provide additional financial flexibility. And while a $4 billion EV loss is projected for this year, losses from the Model e segment are slowly narrowing.
As such, it doesn’t seem prudent to sell Ford stock now. Existing shareholders should stay invested for the long haul, and new investors should wait for more clarity and updates from the third-quarter earnings release.
F stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.