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Will Progress in Production Aid Tesla's (TSLA) Q1 Earnings?

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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA - Free Report) is expected to report first-quarter earnings results on May 2, after the market closes. Last quarter, the electric carmaker delivered an earnings beat of 4.7%.

In the trailing four quarters, the company missed estimates twice and beat on the other two, with an average negative earnings surprise of 31.2%.

Let us see, how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Tesla, Inc. Quote

Why a Positive Surprise Likely

Our proven model shows that Tesla is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. That is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

Zacks Earnings ESP: Tesla has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% as the Most Accurate estimate is pegged at a loss of $3.23, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $3.26. A positive ESP indicates a likely earnings surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Tesla carries a Zacks Rank #3. This, when combined with a positive ESP, makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat.

Conversely, we caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

What’s Driving Better-Than-Expected Earnings?

Tesla produced 34,494 vehicles in first-quarter 2018, up 40% sequentially. This happens to be the most productive quarter in the history of Tesla. Out of the total vehicles produced, 24,728 were Model S and Model X while 9,766 were Model 3. The Model 3 output increased significantly on a sequential basis. However, the company missed the target of producing 2,500 Model 3s a week by the end of first-quarter 2018. Actually, it produced 2020 Model 3 cars over the last seven days of the quarter. Despite the production target miss, the first-quarter 2018 performance of Tesla looks encouraging.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Total Automotive revenues for the soon-to-be-released quarter is $2.73 billion. The company registered Total Automotive revenues of $2.70 in fourth-quarter 2017.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy, Generation and Storage revenues for the soon-to-be-released quarter is $392 million. The company registered Energy, Generation and Storage revenues of $298 million in fourth-quarter 2017.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Services and Other revenues for the soon-to-be-released quarter is $269 million. The company registered Services and Other revenues of $288 million in fourth-quarter 2017.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks worth considering from the same space, with the right combination of elements to outpace earnings estimates this time around:

BorgWarner Inc. (BWA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.83% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Its first-quarter 2018 results are expected to be released on Apr 26. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.45% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is expected to report first-quarter 2018 results on May 4.

Cummins Inc. (CMI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and is a #2 Ranked player. Its first-quarter 2018 results are slated to be announced on May 1.

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