Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG Quick QuoteCFG - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 16, 2026, before the opening bell. The bank's third-quarter 2026 earnings and revenues are expected to have increased from the year-ago quarter's reported levels.

In the last reported quarter, CFG benefited from a rise in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income. Increased loan and deposit balances were also encouraging. However, a rise in expenses was a major headwind. 

The company's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the surprise being 2.87%, on average.

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Quote

Factors to Influence CFG's Q3 Earnings

NII: In September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, citing persistently elevated inflation. As interest rates remained unchanged for most of the quarter, the recent hike is less likely to have a significant impact on CFG's NII and margin in the third quarter of 2026. 

Management expects NII to rise 2.5-3.5% from the second-quarter 2026 reported level of $1.63 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.67 billion, indicating a 2.4% rise from the prior quarter's reported figure.

Loans: Following solid lending activity in the first half of 2026, loan growth momentum likely moderated during the to-be-reported quarter. Per the Fed's latest data, commercial and industrial loan demand remained healthy in the third quarter, while consumer and real estate lending stayed steady. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $208.9 billion, indicating a 1.1% rise from the prior quarter's reported figure.

Non-Interest Income: The third quarter was challenging for the mortgage banking business as mortgage rates hovered around 7% and affordability was low. Both origination volume and refinance activity faced persistent headwinds from inventory constraints and a higher-for-longer rate regime. As a result, Citizens Financial's mortgage banking fees might not have witnessed significant growth in the quarter to be reported.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking fees is pegged at $43.2 million, indicating a 2.9% rise from the prior quarter's reported figure.

Client activity and market volatility were strong in the third quarter. Trading conditions were influenced by shifting expectations around AI, persistent geopolitical tensions, lingering inflation concerns and a hawkish stance from the Fed. Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange.

Hence, Citizens Financial's capital markets fees are likely to have improved in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $159.1 million, indicating a 4% increase from the previous quarter's reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the service charge and fee revenues is pegged at $118.8 million, suggesting a rise of 1.5% from the prior quarter's reported level.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for card fees is pegged at $88.2 million, indicating a marginal decline from the prior quarter's reported figure.
Management expects non-interest income to increase 1% from the second-quarter 2026 reported level of $652 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $656.8 million, indicating a sequential rise of 1%.

Expenses: Despite ongoing efforts to control expenses and generate positive operating leverage, the franchise expansion and investments in new technological advancements are likely to have increased CFG's expenses in the second quarter.
Management projects adjusted non-interest expenses to be flat or increase slightly from the second-quarter reported level.

Asset Quality: CFG is likely to have set aside a decently higher amount for potential delinquent loans in the second quarter of 2026, given elevated inflation and expectations of a rate hike later this year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-accrual loans is pegged at $1.45 billion, indicating a sequential rise of 1.2%

What Our Model Unveils for CFG

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Citizen Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Citizen Financial has an Earnings ESP of -0.74%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: CFG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings of $1.38 per share has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 31.4% from the year-ago actual.

The consensus estimate for third-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $2.33 billion, suggesting a rise of 9.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.

The PNC Financial Services Group (PNC Quick QuotePNC - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 15. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.80% at present.

Quarterly earnings estimates for PNC Financial have been revised lower to $4.97 over the past week.

The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares (PB Quick QuotePB - Free Report) is +0.22% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PB's quarterly earnings has been revised lower to $1.63 per share.