Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM Quick QuoteKIM - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display year-over-year growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this Jericho, NY-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) reported FFO per share of 46 cents, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited from strong leasing activity and higher minimum rents.

Over the preceding four quarters, Kimco’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions and met it twice, the average beat being 1.14%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Kimco Realty Corporation price-eps-surprise | Kimco Realty Corporation Quote

In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. retail real estate market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its third-quarter 2026 performance.

US Retail Real Estate Market in Q3

The third-quarter 2026 U.S. retail real estate market witnessed a strong rebound in demand, with shopping-center net absorption reaching its second-highest quarterly level since the fourth quarter of 2023. Limited new construction continued to support rental growth and historically low vacancy, while resilient consumer spending strengthened market fundamentals.

Per the Cushman & Wakefield report, net absorption reached 3.5 million square feet. National vacancy remained stable at 5.9%, below the historical average of 7.4%. Asking rents increased 2.2% year over year to $25.82 per square foot, while just 2.3 million square feet of new space was delivered. The West led absorption with 1.4 million square feet, while the Midwest recorded the strongest annual rent growth of 3.6%. The South was the only region to witness an increase in vacancy.

Consumer spending remained resilient, with retail sales rising 6% year over year, or 4.3% excluding gasoline stations, while unemployment stood at 4.2%. However, the personal saving rate declined to a four-year low of 4.1% in August, reflecting pressure on household finances. The widening spending divide is expected to favor grocery, discount, off-price apparel and health-and-wellness retailers over discretionary categories.

Factors to Consider Ahead of KIM’s Upcoming Results

Kimco Realty’s third-quarter 2026 performance is likely to have benefited from sustained demand for its grocery-anchored, necessity-based retail portfolio, supported by limited new supply, healthy leasing activity and strong tenant retention.

Rent commencements, positive leasing spreads and strong small-shop demand are expected to have driven growth in minimum rents and same-property NOI. Management projects $9 million in additional rent commencements during the second half of 2026 and expects same-property NOI growth to accelerate to the mid-3% to slightly above 4% range in the third and fourth quarters. The newly launched One Kimco operating model and capital recycling initiatives may have provided additional support to operating efficiency and earnings growth.

However, tenant bankruptcies and the timing gap between lease signings and rent commencements could have constrained occupancy and near-term cash flows.

Q3 Projections for KIM

The company’s top line is expected to have improved due to the above tailwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KIM’s quarterly revenues stands at $551.4 million, implying 2.9% growth from the prior-year reported number.

Our estimate for net revenues from rental properties stands at $542.8 million, indicating a 2.2% increase year over year. We expect KIM’s leased occupancy to increase 30 basis points sequentially to 96.7% in the to-be-reported quarter and same-property NOI to grow 3.8% year over year. We estimate a year-over-year increase of 3% in its third-quarter interest expenses.

Before the third-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly FFO per share has remained unchanged at 46 cents for more than three months. It implies a rise of 4.6% year over year.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for KIM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Kimco this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.

Kimco currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the broader REIT sector, Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR Quick QuoteIIPR - Free Report) and Host Hotels & Resorts (HST Quick QuoteHST - Free Report) , which you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report an FFO beat this quarter.

Innovative Industrial Properties is slated to report quarterly numbers on Nov. 2. IIPR has an Earnings ESP of +1.64% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Host Hotels & Resorts is slated to report quarterly numbers on Nov. 4. HST has an Earnings ESP of +3.20% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.