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Gilead to Report Q3 Earnings: How Should You Play the Stock Now?
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Key Takeaways
GILD's Q3 results hinge on HIV franchise strength, oncology growth and Cell Therapy sales pressures.
Strong Biktarvy and Descovy demand and Yeztugo's launch support 9-10% full-year HIV sales growth guidance.
Trodelvy and Livdelzi bolster diversification, while Cell Therapy faces competition and expenses may rise.
Biotech bigwig Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and loss per share is pegged at $7.81 billion and $2.17, respectively.
The estimate for 2026 loss per share has narrowed to 48 cents from 52 cents over the past 60 days. The earnings per share estimate for 2027 has increased to $9.94 from $9.70 in the said time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
GILD’s Earnings Surprise History
GILD has a good track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 7.12%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 4.53%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for GILD
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for GILD is +4.08%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing GILD’s Q3 Results
Gilead has a market-leading HIV franchise, led by flagship HIV therapies — Biktarvy and Descovy.
Biktarvy is the top revenue generator for GILD and continues to lead as the regimen of choice for both naive and switch patients across major markets. The HIV treatment market experienced slower growth in the second quarter. However, the company expects market growth to return to its typical annual rate of 2-3%.
Gilead’s HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) portfolio comprises daily oral Descovy and the first and only twice-yearly injectable Yeztugo.
Descovy’s performance continues to be strong, primarily driven by higher demand and average realized price.
The top-line estimate for Biktarvy and Descovy is pegged at $3.9 billion and $904 million, respectively, and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $3.9 billion and $861 million.
Yeztugo generated $232 million in sales in the second quarter, with revenues likely to have increased significantly in the third quarter. Gilead continues to target full-year 2026 sales of approximately $1 billion.
Driven by a $4 billion annualized PrEP business and the continued strong performance of Biktarvy, Gilead raised its full-year HIV sales growth guidance to 9-10% from the previous 8% forecast, along with the second-quarter sales.
The Liver Disease portfolio includes drugs for chronic hepatitis C virus, chronic hepatitis B virus and chronic hepatitis delta virus.
Sales from this franchise have likely increased in the third quarter, driven by higher demand for Livdelzi (seladelpar) for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis.
Veklury sales likely remained highly variable.
Cell Therapy product sales (Yescarta and Tecartus) possibly decreased in the to-be-reported quarter due to competitive headwinds, both in the United States and internationally.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Cell Therapy product sales are pinned at $375 million and $385 million, respectively.
Trodelvy, indicated for second-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer and pre-treated HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, likely experienced strong demand in the third quarter, similar to the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Trodelvy sales are pinned at $455 million and $432 million, respectively.
The recent first-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer approvals expand Trodelvy's addressable population.
R&D expenses might have increased in the third quarter, primarily due to integration costs and other acquisition-related expenses. SG&A expenses, too, must have increased, due to higher HIV promotional activities.
GILD’s Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of GILD have surged 31.6% year to date compared with the industry’s growth of 5.7%. The stock has outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Going by the price/earnings ratio, GILD’s shares currently trade at 19.62X forward earnings, higher than its mean of 12.36X and 19.02X for the large-cap pharma industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for GILD
Gilead Sciences has a market-leading HIV portfolio that continues to deliver strong growth, supported by sustained demand for its flagship therapies. The company's ongoing innovation in HIV treatment has been well received by investors, while the strong initial launch of Yeztugo has provided an additional boost to the franchise.
Gilead recently won FDA approval for Bixlenvo (bictegravir 75 mg/lenacapavir 50 mg), the smallest once-daily single tablet regimen for the treatment of HIV in adults who are virologically suppressed. It is also investing to further strengthen its HIV leadership through internal pipeline development and its collaboration with Merck (MRK - Free Report) . Potential approvals of new HIV therapies should reinforce the company's dominant position in the market.
Continued innovation across Gilead's HIV portfolio should have driven sustained growth despite intensifying competition from GSK plc (GSK - Free Report) .
Beyond HIV, Gilead is making steady progress in diversifying its revenue base. Strong uptake of Livdelzi has strengthened its liver disease portfolio.
In oncology, Trodelvy continues to gain market share and additional label expansions should further boost sales. These developments support Gilead's strategy of building a stronger oncology franchise and reducing its dependence on HIV revenues.
The company's strategic acquisitions and partnerships further enhance its long-term growth prospects. However, Gilead's Cell Therapy franchise, comprising Yescarta and Tecartus, continues to face competitive pressures in both the United States and Europe, which might have weighed on recent sales. Despite these challenges, the strength of Gilead's HIV business, expanding oncology portfolio and disciplined business development strategy position the company for sustained long-term growth.
Stay Invested in GILD Stock
GILD is one of the largest biotechs and such large biotech companies are generally considered safe havens for investors interested in this sector.
Regardless of how the third-quarter results turn out, we recommend prospective investors adopt a wait-and-watch approach before turning constructive on the stock.
For existing shareholders, holding the stock appears prudent, supported by the company's solid HIV franchise, pipeline strength and attractive dividend yield.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Gilead to Report Q3 Earnings: How Should You Play the Stock Now?
Key Takeaways
Biotech bigwig Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and loss per share is pegged at $7.81 billion and $2.17, respectively.
The estimate for 2026 loss per share has narrowed to 48 cents from 52 cents over the past 60 days. The earnings per share estimate for 2027 has increased to $9.94 from $9.70 in the said time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
GILD’s Earnings Surprise History
GILD has a good track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 7.12%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 4.53%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for GILD
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for GILD is +4.08%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing GILD’s Q3 Results
Gilead has a market-leading HIV franchise, led by flagship HIV therapies — Biktarvy and Descovy.
Biktarvy is the top revenue generator for GILD and continues to lead as the regimen of choice for both naive and switch patients across major markets. The HIV treatment market experienced slower growth in the second quarter. However, the company expects market growth to return to its typical annual rate of 2-3%.
Gilead’s HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) portfolio comprises daily oral Descovy and the first and only twice-yearly injectable Yeztugo.
Descovy’s performance continues to be strong, primarily driven by higher demand and average realized price.
The top-line estimate for Biktarvy and Descovy is pegged at $3.9 billion and $904 million, respectively, and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $3.9 billion and $861 million.
Yeztugo generated $232 million in sales in the second quarter, with revenues likely to have increased significantly in the third quarter. Gilead continues to target full-year 2026 sales of approximately $1 billion.
Driven by a $4 billion annualized PrEP business and the continued strong performance of Biktarvy, Gilead raised its full-year HIV sales growth guidance to 9-10% from the previous 8% forecast, along with the second-quarter sales.
The Liver Disease portfolio includes drugs for chronic hepatitis C virus, chronic hepatitis B virus and chronic hepatitis delta virus.
Sales from this franchise have likely increased in the third quarter, driven by higher demand for Livdelzi (seladelpar) for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis.
Veklury sales likely remained highly variable.
Cell Therapy product sales (Yescarta and Tecartus) possibly decreased in the to-be-reported quarter due to competitive headwinds, both in the United States and internationally.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Cell Therapy product sales are pinned at $375 million and $385 million, respectively.
Trodelvy, indicated for second-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer and pre-treated HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, likely experienced strong demand in the third quarter, similar to the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Trodelvy sales are pinned at $455 million and $432 million, respectively.
The recent first-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer approvals expand Trodelvy's addressable population.
R&D expenses might have increased in the third quarter, primarily due to integration costs and other acquisition-related expenses. SG&A expenses, too, must have increased, due to higher HIV promotional activities.
GILD’s Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of GILD have surged 31.6% year to date compared with the industry’s growth of 5.7%. The stock has outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Going by the price/earnings ratio, GILD’s shares currently trade at 19.62X forward earnings, higher than its mean of 12.36X and 19.02X for the large-cap pharma industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for GILD
Gilead Sciences has a market-leading HIV portfolio that continues to deliver strong growth, supported by sustained demand for its flagship therapies. The company's ongoing innovation in HIV treatment has been well received by investors, while the strong initial launch of Yeztugo has provided an additional boost to the franchise.
Gilead recently won FDA approval for Bixlenvo (bictegravir 75 mg/lenacapavir 50 mg), the smallest once-daily single tablet regimen for the treatment of HIV in adults who are virologically suppressed. It is also investing to further strengthen its HIV leadership through internal pipeline development and its collaboration with Merck (MRK - Free Report) . Potential approvals of new HIV therapies should reinforce the company's dominant position in the market.
Continued innovation across Gilead's HIV portfolio should have driven sustained growth despite intensifying competition from GSK plc (GSK - Free Report) .
Beyond HIV, Gilead is making steady progress in diversifying its revenue base. Strong uptake of Livdelzi has strengthened its liver disease portfolio.
In oncology, Trodelvy continues to gain market share and additional label expansions should further boost sales. These developments support Gilead's strategy of building a stronger oncology franchise and reducing its dependence on HIV revenues.
The company's strategic acquisitions and partnerships further enhance its long-term growth prospects. However, Gilead's Cell Therapy franchise, comprising Yescarta and Tecartus, continues to face competitive pressures in both the United States and Europe, which might have weighed on recent sales. Despite these challenges, the strength of Gilead's HIV business, expanding oncology portfolio and disciplined business development strategy position the company for sustained long-term growth.
Stay Invested in GILD Stock
GILD is one of the largest biotechs and such large biotech companies are generally considered safe havens for investors interested in this sector.
Regardless of how the third-quarter results turn out, we recommend prospective investors adopt a wait-and-watch approach before turning constructive on the stock.
For existing shareholders, holding the stock appears prudent, supported by the company's solid HIV franchise, pipeline strength and attractive dividend yield.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.