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In the last reported quarter, PGY delivered robust performance, with total revenues and other income increasing 18.6% year over year to a record $387 million. This was driven by a rise in interest income and revenues from fees. We believe that the company has recorded a decent performance this time as well.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $378.1 million, which implies an 8% year-over-year improvement.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for the company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been unchanged at 96 cents. The estimate indicates a decline of 5.9% from the prior-year quarter.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pagaya has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 43.5%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Key Q3 Estimates for Pagaya
PGY’s growth strategy focuses on strengthening existing lending partnerships, expanding its AI-driven product offerings and onboarding new enterprise partners, particularly large U.S. banks and auto lenders. Strong momentum in the auto lending vertical and increased adoption of its lending solutions are expected to have supported top-line growth in the third quarter.
Management expects third-quarter total revenues and other income between $370 million and $390 million.
Higher partner engagement and improved monetization of existing relationships are likely to have driven fee revenue growth during the quarter. However, changes in asset-class mix and elevated capital costs may have weighed on fee margins. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from fees is pegged at $366 million, indicating a 7.6% year-over-year rise.
Pagaya’s network volume is expected to have benefited from increased loan origination activity, supported by its expanding institutional funding capabilities, including asset-backed securitizations and forward-flow arrangements. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for network volume of $3.50 billion implies growth of 24.9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Management expects network volume between $3.425 billion and $3.625 billion.
Management expects adjusted EBITDA between $120 million and $130 million. The company expects GAAP net income between $42 million and $52 million.
What Our Model Unveils for Pagaya
According to our proven model, the chances of Pagaya beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings are low this time. This is because it does not have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.
Pagaya has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Pagaya shares have lost 7.7% in the third quarter compared with the industry’s decline of 3.8% and the S&P 500 Index’s 1.6% return. The stock outperformed its peers, Upstart Holdings (UPST - Free Report) and Virtu Financial (VIRT - Free Report) .
3Q26 PGY Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Virtu Financial will report quarterly results on Nov. 5, before market open, while Upstart is scheduled to announce quarterly results on Nov. 3.
In terms of valuation, PGY shares are trading at a discount relative to the industry. The stock is presently trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) of 2.43X. This is below the industry’s 2.98X.
Price-to-Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The PGY stock is trading at a discount compared with both Upstart and Virtu Financial. At present, Upstart has a P/B of 2.81X, while Virtu Financial’s P/B is 3.73X.
How to Approach Pagaya Stock Before Q3 Earnings?
PGY’s expanding AI-powered lending network, growing presence in the auto lending market and strengthening institutional funding capabilities position it well for long-term growth. Higher partner engagement and improved monetization opportunities are expected to support revenue growth and profitability.
However, elevated capital costs, changes in asset-class mix and an uncertain consumer lending environment remain near-term concerns that could weigh on its operating performance.
Moreover, despite its growth prospects, PGY’s recent share price underperformance and unfavorable earnings outlook warrant caution. Although the stock is trading at a discount to the industry and its peers, the expected year-over-year decline in quarterly earnings and the absence of positive estimate revisions indicate subdued analyst expectations ahead of the release.
Given these factors, existing investors may consider reducing their exposure to PGY, while prospective investors should avoid initiating fresh positions ahead of the earnings announcement.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Pagaya Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY - Free Report) is scheduled to announce third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 29, before market open.
In the last reported quarter, PGY delivered robust performance, with total revenues and other income increasing 18.6% year over year to a record $387 million. This was driven by a rise in interest income and revenues from fees. We believe that the company has recorded a decent performance this time as well.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $378.1 million, which implies an 8% year-over-year improvement.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for the company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been unchanged at 96 cents. The estimate indicates a decline of 5.9% from the prior-year quarter.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pagaya has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 43.5%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Key Q3 Estimates for Pagaya
PGY’s growth strategy focuses on strengthening existing lending partnerships, expanding its AI-driven product offerings and onboarding new enterprise partners, particularly large U.S. banks and auto lenders. Strong momentum in the auto lending vertical and increased adoption of its lending solutions are expected to have supported top-line growth in the third quarter.
Management expects third-quarter total revenues and other income between $370 million and $390 million.
Higher partner engagement and improved monetization of existing relationships are likely to have driven fee revenue growth during the quarter. However, changes in asset-class mix and elevated capital costs may have weighed on fee margins. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from fees is pegged at $366 million, indicating a 7.6% year-over-year rise.
Pagaya’s network volume is expected to have benefited from increased loan origination activity, supported by its expanding institutional funding capabilities, including asset-backed securitizations and forward-flow arrangements. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for network volume of $3.50 billion implies growth of 24.9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Management expects network volume between $3.425 billion and $3.625 billion.
Management expects adjusted EBITDA between $120 million and $130 million. The company expects GAAP net income between $42 million and $52 million.
What Our Model Unveils for Pagaya
According to our proven model, the chances of Pagaya beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings are low this time. This is because it does not have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.
Pagaya has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
PGY carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
PGY’s Price Performance & Valuation
Pagaya shares have lost 7.7% in the third quarter compared with the industry’s decline of 3.8% and the S&P 500 Index’s 1.6% return. The stock outperformed its peers, Upstart Holdings (UPST - Free Report) and Virtu Financial (VIRT - Free Report) .
3Q26 PGY Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Virtu Financial will report quarterly results on Nov. 5, before market open, while Upstart is scheduled to announce quarterly results on Nov. 3.
In terms of valuation, PGY shares are trading at a discount relative to the industry. The stock is presently trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) of 2.43X. This is below the industry’s 2.98X.
Price-to-Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The PGY stock is trading at a discount compared with both Upstart and Virtu Financial. At present, Upstart has a P/B of 2.81X, while Virtu Financial’s P/B is 3.73X.
How to Approach Pagaya Stock Before Q3 Earnings?
PGY’s expanding AI-powered lending network, growing presence in the auto lending market and strengthening institutional funding capabilities position it well for long-term growth. Higher partner engagement and improved monetization opportunities are expected to support revenue growth and profitability.
However, elevated capital costs, changes in asset-class mix and an uncertain consumer lending environment remain near-term concerns that could weigh on its operating performance.
Moreover, despite its growth prospects, PGY’s recent share price underperformance and unfavorable earnings outlook warrant caution. Although the stock is trading at a discount to the industry and its peers, the expected year-over-year decline in quarterly earnings and the absence of positive estimate revisions indicate subdued analyst expectations ahead of the release.
Given these factors, existing investors may consider reducing their exposure to PGY, while prospective investors should avoid initiating fresh positions ahead of the earnings announcement.