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Starbucks to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Starbucks' China transition to a licensed model is expected to weigh on International revenues.
Stronger U.S. comparable sales and easing coffee cost pressures may support revenues and margins.
Starbucks' $2 billion cost-savings plan and disciplined execution are expected to support earnings growth.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Oct. 29, after the closing bell.
SBUX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 8.4%.
Trend in Estimate Revision of SBUX
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 73 cents, indicating a rise of 40.4% from 52 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $9.27 billion. The metric implies a decline of 3.1% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Starbucks’ Quarterly Results
Revenues
Starbucks’ fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenues are expected to decline year over year, primarily reflecting the impact of the transition to a licensed business structure in China. The company’s revenue performance is likely to have varied across segments, while lapping prior-year traffic comparisons and variability in the consumer landscape might have posed additional challenges.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Channel Development revenues is pegged at $571 million, compared with $543 million reported in the prior-year quarter. On the other hand, the company-operated stores revenues are pegged at $7.42 billion, down 5.6% year over year.
International revenue comparisons are expected to have remained affected by the transition of Starbucks’ China retail operations to a licensed joint venture structure. The change reduces the revenue consolidated from China, with Starbucks’ 40% share of the joint venture’s earnings reflected through income from equity investees.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter is pegged at $1.38 billion, down from $2.07 billion reported a year ago.
However, stronger U.S. comparable store sales are expected to have provided some support to revenues, partially offsetting pressure from the transition to a licensed business structure in China. Easing coffee price pressures might have also supported Channel Development revenues, although the impact is likely to have varied with coffee price trends. The company expects U.S. comparable store sales growth of at least 6.5% in the fiscal fourth quarter.
Earnings
Starbucks’ fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to have increased year over year, supported by sales leverage, disciplined execution and cost-saving initiatives. The company expects these factors to have helped offset investments in its Back to Starbucks priorities, including Green Apron Service. Easing coffee cost pressures are also expected to have provided support, as the company anticipates coffee costs to have become largely immaterial to year-over-year margin comparisons in the fiscal fourth quarter.
The company expects continued progress on its cost-saving initiatives to have supported profitability. Starbucks remains on track with its $2 billion cost-savings plan, with savings across product and distribution costs, operating expenses and general and administrative expenses.
What Our Model Says About SBUX Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Starbucks this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.
Starbucks’ Earnings ESP: Starbucks currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.21%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of Starbucks: The company has a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cracker Barrel’s earnings are expected to register a 100% year-over-year increase. CBRL’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 228.6%.
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Restaurant Brands’ earnings are expected to increase 4.9% year over year. QSR’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.8%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 3.7% year-over-year decline. SG’s earnings lagged estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average miss being 43%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Starbucks to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Oct. 29, after the closing bell.
SBUX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 8.4%.
Trend in Estimate Revision of SBUX
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 73 cents, indicating a rise of 40.4% from 52 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
Starbucks Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Starbucks Corporation price-eps-surprise | Starbucks Corporation Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $9.27 billion. The metric implies a decline of 3.1% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Starbucks’ Quarterly Results
Revenues
Starbucks’ fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenues are expected to decline year over year, primarily reflecting the impact of the transition to a licensed business structure in China. The company’s revenue performance is likely to have varied across segments, while lapping prior-year traffic comparisons and variability in the consumer landscape might have posed additional challenges.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Channel Development revenues is pegged at $571 million, compared with $543 million reported in the prior-year quarter. On the other hand, the company-operated stores revenues are pegged at $7.42 billion, down 5.6% year over year.
International revenue comparisons are expected to have remained affected by the transition of Starbucks’ China retail operations to a licensed joint venture structure. The change reduces the revenue consolidated from China, with Starbucks’ 40% share of the joint venture’s earnings reflected through income from equity investees.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter is pegged at $1.38 billion, down from $2.07 billion reported a year ago.
However, stronger U.S. comparable store sales are expected to have provided some support to revenues, partially offsetting pressure from the transition to a licensed business structure in China. Easing coffee price pressures might have also supported Channel Development revenues, although the impact is likely to have varied with coffee price trends. The company expects U.S. comparable store sales growth of at least 6.5% in the fiscal fourth quarter.
Earnings
Starbucks’ fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to have increased year over year, supported by sales leverage, disciplined execution and cost-saving initiatives. The company expects these factors to have helped offset investments in its Back to Starbucks priorities, including Green Apron Service. Easing coffee cost pressures are also expected to have provided support, as the company anticipates coffee costs to have become largely immaterial to year-over-year margin comparisons in the fiscal fourth quarter.
The company expects continued progress on its cost-saving initiatives to have supported profitability. Starbucks remains on track with its $2 billion cost-savings plan, with savings across product and distribution costs, operating expenses and general and administrative expenses.
What Our Model Says About SBUX Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Starbucks this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.
Starbucks’ Earnings ESP: Starbucks currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.21%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of Starbucks: The company has a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +350.01% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cracker Barrel’s earnings are expected to register a 100% year-over-year increase. CBRL’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 228.6%.
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Restaurant Brands’ earnings are expected to increase 4.9% year over year. QSR’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.8%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 3.7% year-over-year decline. SG’s earnings lagged estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average miss being 43%.