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Coca-Cola Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Volume Growth, Outlook Raised

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Key Takeaways

  • Coca-Cola's Q3 EPS rose 11% to 91 cents, while revenues grew 8% to $13.35 billion, both beating estimates.
  • KO's global unit case volume grew 5%, organic revenues rose 7% and comparable operating margin reached 32.9%.
  • Coca-Cola raised its 2026 EPS growth outlook to 11% and free cash flow forecast to at least $13 billion.

The Coca-Cola Company (KO - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 results, with earnings and revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Comparable earnings per share (EPS) rose 11% year over year to 91 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 87 cents. The improvement was supported by organic revenue growth and favorable currency movements.

Comparable revenues increased 7% year over year to $13.4 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $12.9 billion. Global unit case volume grew year over year, driven by broad-based demand across markets. Organic revenues advanced 7%, reflecting higher concentrate sales and improved pricing.

This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock has gained 18.7% in the past six months, outperforming the industry's 11% rally.

KO's Volume Growth and Pricing Trends

In the reported quarter, global unit case volume increased 5%, led by growth in India, China, Mexico and Brazil. Sparkling soft drinks volume rose 5%, with trademark Coca-Cola advancing 5% across all geographic operating segments. Coca-Cola Zero Sugar grew 16%, while Diet Coke/Coca-Cola Light increased 6%.

Sparkling flavors volume improved 3%, driven by gains across Asia Pacific, Latin America and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Juice, value-added dairy and plant-based beverages volume remained flat. Water, sports, coffee and tea volume increased 5%, supported by 8% growth in water. Sports drinks declined 3%, while coffee and tea volumes remained unchanged.

Organic revenue growth was driven by higher concentrate sales and 1% growth in price/mix. Pricing actions were partly offset by unfavorable mix. Concentrate sales outpaced unit case volume by two percentage points due to shipment timing.

Our model expected organic revenue growth of 3.3%, a price/mix rise of 0.3% and unit case volume growth of 2.5%.

KO's Margins and Costs

Comparable gross margin expanded 170 basis points (bps) year over year to 62.7%. Comparable currency-neutral operating income increased 8%, supported by organic revenue growth, partly offset by higher marketing investments and operating expenses. We had anticipated 30 bps gross margin growth to 61.3%

Selling, general and administrative expenses increased 10% to $4 billion. Cost of goods sold rose 3% to $4.9 billion.

Coca-Cola's Regional Revenue Performance

North America revenues increased 3% year over year to $5.4 billion, with organic revenues also rising 3%. Unit case volume remained flat, while price/mix improved 1%. Comparable currency-neutral operating income increased 5%, supported by organic growth and the timing of marketing investments.

Latin America revenues surged 25% to $2 billion, benefiting from a 9% currency tailwind. Organic revenues advanced 16%, supported by 8% concentrate-sales growth and a 7% improvement in price/mix. Unit case volume increased 6%, while comparable currency-neutral operating income rose 14%.

EMEA revenues grew 4% to $3.1 billion, with organic revenues advancing 7%. Unit case volume increased 5%, while comparable currency-neutral operating income improved 7%, aided by organic growth and lower input costs.

Asia Pacific revenues rose 4% to $1.6 billion, while organic revenues improved 6%. Unit case volume increased 6%, although price/mix declined 2%. Bottling Investments revenues grew 13% to $1.5 billion, with organic revenues increasing 12%.

Our model expected reported revenue growth of 4% year over year in North America, 3% in EMEA and 6% in Latin America, and Asia Pacific decline of 1%.

KO Raises 2026 Financial Outlook

For 2026, Coca-Cola now expects organic revenue growth of at least 5% compared with its previous guidance of approximately 5%. Comparable currency-neutral EPS, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, is projected to grow at least 9%, up from the previous expectation of 7-8%.

Comparable EPS is expected to increase at least 11% compared with the earlier forecast of 9-10% growth. The outlook incorporates an approximately 3% currency tailwind and a 1% headwind from acquisitions and divestitures.

Management raised its free cash flow outlook to at least $13 billion from approximately $12.4 billion, reflecting projected operating cash flow of at least $15.2 billion and capital expenditures of approximately $2.2 billion.

For the fourth quarter, Coca-Cola anticipates a 1% currency tailwind and a 4% headwind from acquisitions and divestitures on comparable revenues. Comparable EPS is expected to benefit from a 4% currency tailwind, partly offset by a 3% portfolio-related headwind.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chefs' Warehouse's current financial-year sales indicates growth of 10.8% from the prior-year level. CHEF delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 30.4%, on average. 

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The consensus estimate for Darling Ingredients’ current financial-year sales is expected to rise 11.5% from the year-ago reported figure. DAR delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 38.9%, on average. 

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