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Will Higher Premiums Help AIG Navigate Q3 Underwriting Pressures?
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Key Takeaways
AIG is set to report Q3 2026 results Nov. 3, with EPS seen falling 15.9% even as revenues rise 5.6%.
AIG's General Insurance net premiums earned may rise 6.4%, while net investment income could jump 27.7%.
AIG's General Insurance combined ratio is likely to reach 92%, while adjusted pre-tax income may fall 18%.
Insurance provider American International Group, Inc. (AIG - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.85 per shareon revenues of $7.45 billion.
The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed three upward revisions and one downward movement over the past 60 days. Yet, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 15.9%. Nevertheless, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year increase of 5.6%.
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For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for American International’s revenues is pegged at $28.97 billion, implying a rise of 5.5% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $8.07, implying 13.8% year-over-year growth.
American International beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average surprise being 12.9%. This is depicted in the figure below.
However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.
AIG has an Earnings ESP of -1.29% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter General Insurance net premiums earned suggests 6.4% year-over-year growth, driven by anticipated increases across the North America Commercial and International Commercial businesses.
The consensus estimate for net investment income indicates a 27.7% surge from the year-ago quarter. These factors are likely to have supported top-line growth in the third quarter.
However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the General Insurance combined ratio is pegged at 92%, indicating a deterioration of 520 basis points from 86.8% in the year-ago quarter. The combined ratio for International Commercial operations is expected to deteriorate 600 basis points to 90.9% from 84.9% a year ago, reflecting pressure on underwriting profitability.
The consensus estimate for General Insurance adjusted pre-tax income suggests an approximately 18% year-over-year decline. Additionally, Other Operations is expected to report a wider adjusted pre-tax loss compared with the prior-year quarter.
These headwinds are likely to have partially offset the benefits of higher premiums and investment income in the third quarter, affecting profits and making an earnings beat uncertain.
How Did Other Insurers Fare This Quarter?
Several insurance companies, including Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH - Free Report) , The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG - Free Report) and RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR - Free Report) , have already reported their financial results for the September quarter of 2026. Here’s how they performed:
Marsh reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $2.03, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6% and advanced 9.7% year over year. The results benefited from solid revenue growth across Risk and Insurance Services and Consulting. However, Marsh’s higher operating expenses partially offset the positives.
Hartford Insurance delivered third-quarter 2026 core earnings per share of $3.50, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.1%. However, the bottom line declined 2.5% year over year. The results benefited from HIG’s higher investment income and premium growth in Business Insurance. However, higher catastrophe losses and weaker Employee Benefits profitability partly offset the upside.
RenaissanceRe reported third-quarter 2026 operating income of $12.71 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.9%. Yet, the bottom line fell from $15.62 per share a year ago. The quarterly earnings benefited from lower operational expenses and higher net investment income. However, the upside was partly offset by lower net premiums earned, weaker underwriting results in RNR’s Casualty & Specialty segment and lower fee income.
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Will Higher Premiums Help AIG Navigate Q3 Underwriting Pressures?
Key Takeaways
Insurance provider American International Group, Inc. (AIG - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.85 per shareon revenues of $7.45 billion.
The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed three upward revisions and one downward movement over the past 60 days. Yet, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 15.9%. Nevertheless, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year increase of 5.6%.
For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for American International’s revenues is pegged at $28.97 billion, implying a rise of 5.5% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $8.07, implying 13.8% year-over-year growth.
American International beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average surprise being 12.9%. This is depicted in the figure below.
American International Price and EPS Surprise
American International Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American International Group, Inc. Quote
Q3 Earnings Whispers for AIG
However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.
AIG has an Earnings ESP of -1.29% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping AIG’s Q3 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter General Insurance net premiums earned suggests 6.4% year-over-year growth, driven by anticipated increases across the North America Commercial and International Commercial businesses.
The consensus estimate for net investment income indicates a 27.7% surge from the year-ago quarter. These factors are likely to have supported top-line growth in the third quarter.
However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the General Insurance combined ratio is pegged at 92%, indicating a deterioration of 520 basis points from 86.8% in the year-ago quarter. The combined ratio for International Commercial operations is expected to deteriorate 600 basis points to 90.9% from 84.9% a year ago, reflecting pressure on underwriting profitability.
The consensus estimate for General Insurance adjusted pre-tax income suggests an approximately 18% year-over-year decline. Additionally, Other Operations is expected to report a wider adjusted pre-tax loss compared with the prior-year quarter.
These headwinds are likely to have partially offset the benefits of higher premiums and investment income in the third quarter, affecting profits and making an earnings beat uncertain.
How Did Other Insurers Fare This Quarter?
Several insurance companies, including Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH - Free Report) , The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG - Free Report) and RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR - Free Report) , have already reported their financial results for the September quarter of 2026. Here’s how they performed:
Marsh reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $2.03, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6% and advanced 9.7% year over year. The results benefited from solid revenue growth across Risk and Insurance Services and Consulting. However, Marsh’s higher operating expenses partially offset the positives.
Hartford Insurance delivered third-quarter 2026 core earnings per share of $3.50, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.1%. However, the bottom line declined 2.5% year over year. The results benefited from HIG’s higher investment income and premium growth in Business Insurance. However, higher catastrophe losses and weaker Employee Benefits profitability partly offset the upside.
RenaissanceRe reported third-quarter 2026 operating income of $12.71 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.9%. Yet, the bottom line fell from $15.62 per share a year ago. The quarterly earnings benefited from lower operational expenses and higher net investment income. However, the upside was partly offset by lower net premiums earned, weaker underwriting results in RNR’s Casualty & Specialty segment and lower fee income.