We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Pre-market futures are giving back some of their gains accrued over the early part of this trading week, though the depths have recovered slightly since the latest inflation report hit the tape. The Dow is currently -71 points, the Nasdaq -321 (it had gained the most on renewed interest in the AI trade this week) and the S&P 500 is -18 points. Only the small-cap Russell 2000 is +8 points at this hour.
Bond yields and spot oil prices are dialed back somewhat from a day ago: +5.024% on the 10-year, +4.704% on the 2-year and +5.350% on the 30-year. These are still keeping elevated — especially on the long end, which affects mortgage rates — but off the multi-year highs we were seeing a month ago. Spot oil prices remain at $10 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and +115/bbl on global Brent crude — precisely where they were a day ago.
The first look at Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was released with the inflation data listed below, and it came out ahead of expectations: +3.4% — subject to a couple of revisions — up from the +3.1% anticipated and the Q2 third installment GDP of +2.2%. The economy is heating up, in other words, or at least it is in an early snapshot.
PCE Inflation Data Slightly Lower than Expectations
The good news regarding our latest inflation report — Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for September, which had been cited as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation — is that we’re not screaming higher as oil prices remain elevated (the war in Iran is now entering its ninth month). Headline PCE Price Index month over month reached +0.5%, in-line with expectations. Year over year, this came in at +3.6%, 10 basis points (bps) below consensus.
Core PCE (subtracting volatile food and energy expenditures) was in-line with estimates at +0.3% month over month, +3.1% year over year, but both were 10 bps higher than a month ago. Again, this does not depict a dire scenario, but it does reflect inflation levels continually increasing. A year ago, PCE was +2.8% year over year, and a year before that we were at +2.3% — much closer to the Fed’s stated inflation level preference of +2.0%.
Both Personal Income and Consumer Spending were a tick below expectations: +0.2% and +0.5%, respectively. Income rates were steady from the previous month while Spending saw a drop off from +0.9% in August. While this tightening of the belt is likely a healthy response to elevated expenditures for the month, Americans are still spending at a higher rate than they are earning. This pushes credit levels higher, with elevated interest rates to deal with.
Weekly Jobless Claims Remain Spectacular
(Or should I say “spooktacular,” as we are two days from Halloween?) Initial Jobless Claims reached +194K last week, down from the slightly upwardly revised +195K the prior week. We haven’t been above +200K new jobless claims since the week of Labor Day, and only approaching +300K new claims per week would give analysts pause regarding the health of the labor market.
Continuing Claims, reported a week in arrears, dipped again to +1.701 million — below the upwardly revised +1.722 million, and the third week in the last six where we’ve been at these 3+ year lows. As we’ve said in the past, we don’t see Jobless Claims as giving the full picture of domestic unemployment; besides retiring Baby Boomers and prosperous Gen Xers, many are seeing their latest pink slip as motivation to get into the ride-share business.
Q3 Earnings Reports at a Glance: LLY, CAT, MA & More
Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) outperformed expectations in Q3 this morning, beating earnings estimates by +39% to $7.48 per share. Revenues of $24.4 billion were +10.37% higher than the Zacks consensus, as GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound continue to set the pace in the weight-loss market. Shares are up +4% in early trading, now over +20% year to date.
Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) , on the other hand, is seeing shares fall nearly -12% in early trading this morning, following its Q3 beats on both top and bottom lines. However, the company did not raise guidance, indicating that the company’s recent boon in AI infrastructure buildout may be slowing in the quarters ahead.
Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated Mastercard (MA - Free Report) shares are up over +2% in today’s pre-market, as the company posted a +3.3% positive earnings in Q3 results to $5.31 per share, on revenues of $9.81 billion which came out ahead of the $9.63 billion projected, and up +14% year over year. Volumes and card activity are strong for Mastercard at present.
Crocs (CROX - Free Report) continues its stellar performance in 2026, with Q3 results coming in +11.5% ahead of expectations on earnings to $3.69 per share, and revenues of $1.04 billion surpassing forecasts by +3.74%. Shares are +16% in pre-market trading, adding to the company’s +40% gains year to date.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
Market news has been favorable this morning, so we’ll check if we continue to see positive sentiment push back against the early-morning setback. After today’s close, we’ll see more headline earnings reports hit the tape — from Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) to Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) to Twilio (TWLO - Free Report) .
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Initial Claims Remain Almost Flat
Pre-market futures are giving back some of their gains accrued over the early part of this trading week, though the depths have recovered slightly since the latest inflation report hit the tape. The Dow is currently -71 points, the Nasdaq -321 (it had gained the most on renewed interest in the AI trade this week) and the S&P 500 is -18 points. Only the small-cap Russell 2000 is +8 points at this hour.
Bond yields and spot oil prices are dialed back somewhat from a day ago: +5.024% on the 10-year, +4.704% on the 2-year and +5.350% on the 30-year. These are still keeping elevated — especially on the long end, which affects mortgage rates — but off the multi-year highs we were seeing a month ago. Spot oil prices remain at $10 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and +115/bbl on global Brent crude — precisely where they were a day ago.
The first look at Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was released with the inflation data listed below, and it came out ahead of expectations: +3.4% — subject to a couple of revisions — up from the +3.1% anticipated and the Q2 third installment GDP of +2.2%. The economy is heating up, in other words, or at least it is in an early snapshot.
PCE Inflation Data Slightly Lower than Expectations
The good news regarding our latest inflation report — Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for September, which had been cited as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation — is that we’re not screaming higher as oil prices remain elevated (the war in Iran is now entering its ninth month). Headline PCE Price Index month over month reached +0.5%, in-line with expectations. Year over year, this came in at +3.6%, 10 basis points (bps) below consensus.
Core PCE (subtracting volatile food and energy expenditures) was in-line with estimates at +0.3% month over month, +3.1% year over year, but both were 10 bps higher than a month ago. Again, this does not depict a dire scenario, but it does reflect inflation levels continually increasing. A year ago, PCE was +2.8% year over year, and a year before that we were at +2.3% — much closer to the Fed’s stated inflation level preference of +2.0%.
Both Personal Income and Consumer Spending were a tick below expectations: +0.2% and +0.5%, respectively. Income rates were steady from the previous month while Spending saw a drop off from +0.9% in August. While this tightening of the belt is likely a healthy response to elevated expenditures for the month, Americans are still spending at a higher rate than they are earning. This pushes credit levels higher, with elevated interest rates to deal with.
Weekly Jobless Claims Remain Spectacular
(Or should I say “spooktacular,” as we are two days from Halloween?) Initial Jobless Claims reached +194K last week, down from the slightly upwardly revised +195K the prior week. We haven’t been above +200K new jobless claims since the week of Labor Day, and only approaching +300K new claims per week would give analysts pause regarding the health of the labor market.
Continuing Claims, reported a week in arrears, dipped again to +1.701 million — below the upwardly revised +1.722 million, and the third week in the last six where we’ve been at these 3+ year lows. As we’ve said in the past, we don’t see Jobless Claims as giving the full picture of domestic unemployment; besides retiring Baby Boomers and prosperous Gen Xers, many are seeing their latest pink slip as motivation to get into the ride-share business.
Q3 Earnings Reports at a Glance: LLY, CAT, MA & More
Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) outperformed expectations in Q3 this morning, beating earnings estimates by +39% to $7.48 per share. Revenues of $24.4 billion were +10.37% higher than the Zacks consensus, as GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound continue to set the pace in the weight-loss market. Shares are up +4% in early trading, now over +20% year to date.
Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) , on the other hand, is seeing shares fall nearly -12% in early trading this morning, following its Q3 beats on both top and bottom lines. However, the company did not raise guidance, indicating that the company’s recent boon in AI infrastructure buildout may be slowing in the quarters ahead.
Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated Mastercard (MA - Free Report) shares are up over +2% in today’s pre-market, as the company posted a +3.3% positive earnings in Q3 results to $5.31 per share, on revenues of $9.81 billion which came out ahead of the $9.63 billion projected, and up +14% year over year. Volumes and card activity are strong for Mastercard at present.
Crocs (CROX - Free Report) continues its stellar performance in 2026, with Q3 results coming in +11.5% ahead of expectations on earnings to $3.69 per share, and revenues of $1.04 billion surpassing forecasts by +3.74%. Shares are +16% in pre-market trading, adding to the company’s +40% gains year to date.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
Market news has been favorable this morning, so we’ll check if we continue to see positive sentiment push back against the early-morning setback. After today’s close, we’ll see more headline earnings reports hit the tape — from Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) to Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) to Twilio (TWLO - Free Report) .