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Why Is Carnival (CCL) Up 14.3% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Carnival (CCL - Free Report) . Shares have added about 14.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Carnival due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Carnival Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record Revenues & Net Yields
Carnival reported better-than-expected third-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended Aug. 31) results, with both adjusted earnings and revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Revenues increased on a year-over-year basis, while adjusted earnings remained flat.
Carnival delivered all-time-high revenues and net yields in constant currency, supported by continued demand strength and cost discipline. Net yields increased 2.4% year over year in constant currency, more than one percentage point better than the June guidance. Adjusted EBITDA also exceeded the company's June guidance by $110 million despite higher fuel costs.
CCL’s Q3 Earnings & Revenues
For the quarter under review, the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 by 5.1%.
Revenues in the quarter totaled $8.44 billion, beating the consensus mark of $8.36 billion by 0.9%. The metric increased 3.5% year over year from $8.15 billion.
During the quarter, passenger ticket revenues amounted to $5.53 billion, up 1.8% from $5.43 billion reported in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for passenger ticket revenues was pegged at $5.6 billion.
Onboard and other revenues increased 6.7% to $2.91 billion from $2.72 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for Onboard and other revenues was pegged at $2.79 billion.
Carnival’s Q3 Operating Highlights
Gross margin totaled $3.05 billion, almost flat compared with prior-year quarter levels. Gross margin yields declined 1.3% year over year, primarily due to higher fuel prices.
Net yields reached an all-time high and increased 2.4% year over year in constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $2.99 billion, unchanged from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $2.88 billion.
Cruise and tour operating expenses totaled $4.63 billion, up 5.5% from $4.39 billion in the year-ago quarter. Fuel expense increased to $615 million from $451 million. Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day increased 1.8% in constant currency, one percentage point better than the June guidance.
CCL’s Q3 Cruise Metrics
Passenger cruise days totaled 27.9 million compared with 27.5 million in the prior-year quarter. Available lower berth days increased to 24.9 million from 24.6 million.
Occupancy was 111.8% compared with 111.7% in the year-ago quarter. Carnival carried 3.9 million passengers, up from 3.8 million a year earlier.
Fuel consumption per thousand available lower berth days improved 3.8% year over year to 26.9 metric tons from 28 metric tons. Fuel cost per metric ton consumed, excluding emission allowances, increased to $826 from $607.
Carnival’s Booking Update
The company delivered another strong booking performance, with volumes meaningfully ahead of the prior year and far outpacing capacity growth. For full-year fiscal 2027, both booked occupancy and pricing are at record levels.
Customer deposits reached a fiscal third-quarter record of $7.64 billion, surpassing the prior-year record by approximately $0.5 billion. Carnival also stated that 2028 bookings started at higher occupancy and pricing levels than the prior year.
CCL’s Balance Sheet
As of Aug. 31, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $1.22 billion compared with $1.93 billion as of Nov. 30, 2025. Total debt, including current and long-term debt, declined to $23.91 billion from $26.64 billion over the same period.
Cash from operations totaled $1.41 billion in the quarter compared with $1.38 billion in the prior-year quarter. Capital expenditures amounted to $698 million compared with $648 million a year ago.
Carnival completed approximately $1.2 billion of share repurchases year to date. The company distributed $204 million in dividends during the third quarter, bringing year-to-date dividend payments to $618 million.
Carnival’s Q4 & FY26 Outlook
For fourth-quarter fiscal 2026, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.30 billion. Adjusted net income is projected at nearly $274 million, while adjusted EPS is expected to be approximately 20 cents.
The company expects fiscal 2026 net yields to increase approximately 2.3% year over year in constant currency, 0.5 percentage points better than the June guidance. Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day are expected to increase approximately 2.2% in constant currency. For the fiscal fourth quarter, net yields are projected to increase approximately 1.7% in constant currency.
For fiscal 2026, CCL expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7.14 billion. Adjusted net income is projected to be nearly $3.08 billion, while adjusted EPS is anticipated to be approximately $2.24.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
VGM Scores
Currently, Carnival has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Carnival has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Carnival belongs to the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry. Another stock from the same industry, Vail Resorts (MTN - Free Report) , has gained 10.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended July 2026.
Vail Resorts reported revenues of $278.07 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.5%. EPS of -$5.34 for the same period compares with -$5.08 a year ago.
Vail Resorts is expected to post a loss of $5.42 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -4.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.3%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Vail Resorts. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Why Is Carnival (CCL) Up 14.3% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Carnival (CCL - Free Report) . Shares have added about 14.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Carnival due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Carnival Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record Revenues & Net Yields
Carnival reported better-than-expected third-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended Aug. 31) results, with both adjusted earnings and revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Revenues increased on a year-over-year basis, while adjusted earnings remained flat.
Carnival delivered all-time-high revenues and net yields in constant currency, supported by continued demand strength and cost discipline. Net yields increased 2.4% year over year in constant currency, more than one percentage point better than the June guidance. Adjusted EBITDA also exceeded the company's June guidance by $110 million despite higher fuel costs.
CCL’s Q3 Earnings & Revenues
For the quarter under review, the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 by 5.1%.
Revenues in the quarter totaled $8.44 billion, beating the consensus mark of $8.36 billion by 0.9%. The metric increased 3.5% year over year from $8.15 billion.
During the quarter, passenger ticket revenues amounted to $5.53 billion, up 1.8% from $5.43 billion reported in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for passenger ticket revenues was pegged at $5.6 billion.
Onboard and other revenues increased 6.7% to $2.91 billion from $2.72 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for Onboard and other revenues was pegged at $2.79 billion.
Carnival’s Q3 Operating Highlights
Gross margin totaled $3.05 billion, almost flat compared with prior-year quarter levels. Gross margin yields declined 1.3% year over year, primarily due to higher fuel prices.
Net yields reached an all-time high and increased 2.4% year over year in constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $2.99 billion, unchanged from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $2.88 billion.
Cruise and tour operating expenses totaled $4.63 billion, up 5.5% from $4.39 billion in the year-ago quarter. Fuel expense increased to $615 million from $451 million. Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day increased 1.8% in constant currency, one percentage point better than the June guidance.
CCL’s Q3 Cruise Metrics
Passenger cruise days totaled 27.9 million compared with 27.5 million in the prior-year quarter. Available lower berth days increased to 24.9 million from 24.6 million.
Occupancy was 111.8% compared with 111.7% in the year-ago quarter. Carnival carried 3.9 million passengers, up from 3.8 million a year earlier.
Fuel consumption per thousand available lower berth days improved 3.8% year over year to 26.9 metric tons from 28 metric tons. Fuel cost per metric ton consumed, excluding emission allowances, increased to $826 from $607.
Carnival’s Booking Update
The company delivered another strong booking performance, with volumes meaningfully ahead of the prior year and far outpacing capacity growth. For full-year fiscal 2027, both booked occupancy and pricing are at record levels.
Customer deposits reached a fiscal third-quarter record of $7.64 billion, surpassing the prior-year record by approximately $0.5 billion. Carnival also stated that 2028 bookings started at higher occupancy and pricing levels than the prior year.
CCL’s Balance Sheet
As of Aug. 31, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $1.22 billion compared with $1.93 billion as of Nov. 30, 2025. Total debt, including current and long-term debt, declined to $23.91 billion from $26.64 billion over the same period.
Cash from operations totaled $1.41 billion in the quarter compared with $1.38 billion in the prior-year quarter. Capital expenditures amounted to $698 million compared with $648 million a year ago.
Carnival completed approximately $1.2 billion of share repurchases year to date. The company distributed $204 million in dividends during the third quarter, bringing year-to-date dividend payments to $618 million.
Carnival’s Q4 & FY26 Outlook
For fourth-quarter fiscal 2026, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.30 billion. Adjusted net income is projected at nearly $274 million, while adjusted EPS is expected to be approximately 20 cents.
The company expects fiscal 2026 net yields to increase approximately 2.3% year over year in constant currency, 0.5 percentage points better than the June guidance. Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per available lower berth day are expected to increase approximately 2.2% in constant currency. For the fiscal fourth quarter, net yields are projected to increase approximately 1.7% in constant currency.
For fiscal 2026, CCL expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7.14 billion. Adjusted net income is projected to be nearly $3.08 billion, while adjusted EPS is anticipated to be approximately $2.24.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
VGM Scores
Currently, Carnival has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Carnival has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Carnival belongs to the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry. Another stock from the same industry, Vail Resorts (MTN - Free Report) , has gained 10.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended July 2026.
Vail Resorts reported revenues of $278.07 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.5%. EPS of -$5.34 for the same period compares with -$5.08 a year ago.
Vail Resorts is expected to post a loss of $5.42 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -4.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.3%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Vail Resorts. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.