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COIN Q3 Earnings Beat on Prediction Markets, Lower Costs
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Key Takeaways
Coinbase posted Q3 adjusted EPS of 28 cents against an expected 16-cent loss, while revenues fell 35%.
Prediction markets topped $200M in annualized revenues, with daily traders climbing over 60% sequentially.
Operating expenses fell 16.9%, helping Coinbase swing to a $61.7M operating profit from a $113.5M loss.
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 28 cents per share in contrast to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 16-cent loss, delivering a positive earnings surprise of 275%. Adjusted net income fell 81.5% year over year to $77.7 million.
Total revenues of $1.216 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.198 billion by 1.46% but declined 35.0% year over year. Prediction market growth and lower expenses helped offset subdued crypto activity. Coinbase Crypto Trading Volume Market Share increased to 10.7% from 5.6% a year earlier.
Coinbase Global, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
COIN's Transaction Revenues Face Trading Headwinds
Transaction revenues declined 43.6% year over year to $590.2 million in the third quarter, reflecting lower spot and derivatives trading activity. Overall crypto market trading volume fell 10% sequentially, while crypto asset volatility declined 15%, reaching multiyear lows.
Consumer transaction revenues were $450 million, roughly flat quarter over quarter. Consumer crypto spot trading volume slipped 9%, while crypto derivatives volume dropped 6%. Growth in prediction markets helped offset these declines. Institutional transaction revenues decreased 8% sequentially to $92 million, while other transaction revenues rose 2% to $48 million.
Coinbase's Subscription Revenues Offer Support
Subscription and services revenues totaled $570.2 million, down 20.4% year over year but up 2.7% sequentially. The business contributed 49% of net revenues, highlighting Coinbase's efforts to diversify beyond transaction fees. Corporate interest and other income decreased 47.9% year over year to $55.1 million.
Stablecoin revenues rose 5% sequentially to $307 million, supported by record average USDC holdings of $22 billion in Coinbase products, up 49% year over year. Blockchain rewards increased 3% to $86 million. Interest and finance fee income grew 4% to $69 million, aided by a record average daily loan book balance.
COIN Expands Its Trading and Onchain Businesses
Prediction markets surpassed $200 million in annualized revenues after recording 82% quarterly compound growth since launch. Daily prediction market traders climbed more than 60% sequentially. Management said these products generated incremental activity rather than replacing customers' existing spot trades.
Paid Coinbase One subscribers reached a record, increasing 24% year over year. Subscribers generated 3.5 times the average revenue per user of nonsubscribers. Meanwhile, Coinbase completed the integration of its international exchange with Deribit in October and plans to relaunch Coinbase Pro in the fourth quarter with a broader trading lineup.
Base maintained its leadership among layer-2 networks in spot crypto trading and decentralized finance total value locked. Coinbase Tokenized Stock Volume on Base surpassed $1 billion since launch, reflecting its expansion into onchain equity trading.
Coinbase Cuts Costs and Returns to Operating Profit
Total operating expenses decreased 16.9% year over year to $1.154 billion. Technology and development expenses declined 5% sequentially to $447.4 million, while general and administrative expenses fell 11% to $318.9 million. Adjusted expenses totaled $975 million, below management's previous third-quarter outlook of $980 million to $1.08 billion.
Operating income reached $61.7 million compared with a $113.5 million operating loss in the preceding quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 60% sequentially to $332.9 million, marking the 15th consecutive positive quarter. GAAP net income was $718.7 million, benefiting from $715 million in gains on crypto assets held for investment.
COIN's Cash Position and Shareholder Returns
Coinbase ended September with $8.60 billion in cash and cash equivalents, down 23.8% from the end of 2025. Long-term debt was $5.95 billion, while shareholders' equity was $13.94 billion, down 5.8% from year-end 2025.
Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $785.5 million during the first nine months of 2026, down 56.4% year over year. Coinbase also reported more than $2 billion returned to shareholders through repurchases, with approximately $2 billion of authorization remaining.
Coinbase Issues Q4 Outlook and Lowers Annual Cost Plan
For the fourth quarter, Coinbase projects subscription and services revenues of $550 million to $630 million. Transaction revenues were approximately $165 million through Oct. 25, a partial-quarter figure that management cautioned against extrapolating. Transaction expenses are expected to remain in the mid-teens as a percentage of net revenues.
Adjusted expenses are forecast between $1.007 billion and $1.157 billion, with stock-based compensation of approximately $240 million. COIN lowered its full-year 2026 adjusted expense outlook to $4.15 billion-$4.30 billion from the earlier range of $4.20 billion-$4.45 billion.
Performance of Other Financial - Miscellaneous Services Providers
Synchrony Financial (SYF - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.68, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.1%. However, the bottom line decreased 6.3% year over year.
Net interest income increased 1.9% year over year to $4.8 billion but missed the consensus estimate by 0.6%. The growth was driven by higher average loan receivables and lower funding costs.
Synchrony continues to anticipate mid-single-digit growth in period-end loan receivables. Strong purchase volume growth is expected to continue throughout 2026. The payment rate is expected to remain high.
The company now expects full-year 2026 earnings of approximately $9.50 per share, compared with the previously guided range of $9.25-$9.50.
American Express Company (AXP - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.68, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.7%. The bottom line advanced 13% year over year.
Total revenues, net of interest expense, improved 9% year over year to $20.1 billion. However, the top line missed the consensus mark by a whisker.
American Express raised its 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to $18.30-$18.60 from its previous projection of $17.30-$17.90. The midpoint of which now indicates an improvement of 20% from the 2025 figure.
Management anticipates adjusted EPS to be in the range of $17.60-$17.90 for 2026.
The company reaffirmed its expectation of 10% revenue growth for 2026, supported by continued momentum in Card Member spending, customer acquisitions and its premium membership offerings.
Blackstone’s (BX - Free Report) third-quarter 2026 distributable earnings of $1.32 per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.26. However, the bottom line declined 13% from the prior-year quarter. Total segment revenues for the reported quarter were $3.22 billion, declining 3% year over year. On a GAAP basis, revenues were $3.06 billion, which declined 1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues was $3.12 billion.
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COIN Q3 Earnings Beat on Prediction Markets, Lower Costs
Key Takeaways
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 28 cents per share in contrast to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 16-cent loss, delivering a positive earnings surprise of 275%. Adjusted net income fell 81.5% year over year to $77.7 million.
Total revenues of $1.216 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.198 billion by 1.46% but declined 35.0% year over year. Prediction market growth and lower expenses helped offset subdued crypto activity. Coinbase Crypto Trading Volume Market Share increased to 10.7% from 5.6% a year earlier.
Coinbase Global, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Coinbase Global, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Coinbase Global, Inc. Quote
COIN's Transaction Revenues Face Trading Headwinds
Transaction revenues declined 43.6% year over year to $590.2 million in the third quarter, reflecting lower spot and derivatives trading activity. Overall crypto market trading volume fell 10% sequentially, while crypto asset volatility declined 15%, reaching multiyear lows.
Consumer transaction revenues were $450 million, roughly flat quarter over quarter. Consumer crypto spot trading volume slipped 9%, while crypto derivatives volume dropped 6%. Growth in prediction markets helped offset these declines. Institutional transaction revenues decreased 8% sequentially to $92 million, while other transaction revenues rose 2% to $48 million.
Coinbase's Subscription Revenues Offer Support
Subscription and services revenues totaled $570.2 million, down 20.4% year over year but up 2.7% sequentially. The business contributed 49% of net revenues, highlighting Coinbase's efforts to diversify beyond transaction fees. Corporate interest and other income decreased 47.9% year over year to $55.1 million.
Stablecoin revenues rose 5% sequentially to $307 million, supported by record average USDC holdings of $22 billion in Coinbase products, up 49% year over year. Blockchain rewards increased 3% to $86 million. Interest and finance fee income grew 4% to $69 million, aided by a record average daily loan book balance.
COIN Expands Its Trading and Onchain Businesses
Prediction markets surpassed $200 million in annualized revenues after recording 82% quarterly compound growth since launch. Daily prediction market traders climbed more than 60% sequentially. Management said these products generated incremental activity rather than replacing customers' existing spot trades.
Paid Coinbase One subscribers reached a record, increasing 24% year over year. Subscribers generated 3.5 times the average revenue per user of nonsubscribers. Meanwhile, Coinbase completed the integration of its international exchange with Deribit in October and plans to relaunch Coinbase Pro in the fourth quarter with a broader trading lineup.
Base maintained its leadership among layer-2 networks in spot crypto trading and decentralized finance total value locked. Coinbase Tokenized Stock Volume on Base surpassed $1 billion since launch, reflecting its expansion into onchain equity trading.
Coinbase Cuts Costs and Returns to Operating Profit
Total operating expenses decreased 16.9% year over year to $1.154 billion. Technology and development expenses declined 5% sequentially to $447.4 million, while general and administrative expenses fell 11% to $318.9 million. Adjusted expenses totaled $975 million, below management's previous third-quarter outlook of $980 million to $1.08 billion.
Operating income reached $61.7 million compared with a $113.5 million operating loss in the preceding quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 60% sequentially to $332.9 million, marking the 15th consecutive positive quarter. GAAP net income was $718.7 million, benefiting from $715 million in gains on crypto assets held for investment.
COIN's Cash Position and Shareholder Returns
Coinbase ended September with $8.60 billion in cash and cash equivalents, down 23.8% from the end of 2025. Long-term debt was $5.95 billion, while shareholders' equity was $13.94 billion, down 5.8% from year-end 2025.
Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $785.5 million during the first nine months of 2026, down 56.4% year over year. Coinbase also reported more than $2 billion returned to shareholders through repurchases, with approximately $2 billion of authorization remaining.
Coinbase Issues Q4 Outlook and Lowers Annual Cost Plan
For the fourth quarter, Coinbase projects subscription and services revenues of $550 million to $630 million. Transaction revenues were approximately $165 million through Oct. 25, a partial-quarter figure that management cautioned against extrapolating. Transaction expenses are expected to remain in the mid-teens as a percentage of net revenues.
Adjusted expenses are forecast between $1.007 billion and $1.157 billion, with stock-based compensation of approximately $240 million. COIN lowered its full-year 2026 adjusted expense outlook to $4.15 billion-$4.30 billion from the earlier range of $4.20 billion-$4.45 billion.
COIN’s Zacks Rank
COIN currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Performance of Other Financial - Miscellaneous Services Providers
Synchrony Financial (SYF - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.68, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.1%. However, the bottom line decreased 6.3% year over year.
Net interest income increased 1.9% year over year to $4.8 billion but missed the consensus estimate by 0.6%. The growth was driven by higher average loan receivables and lower funding costs.
Synchrony continues to anticipate mid-single-digit growth in period-end loan receivables. Strong purchase volume growth is expected to continue throughout 2026. The payment rate is expected to remain high.
The company now expects full-year 2026 earnings of approximately $9.50 per share, compared with the previously guided range of $9.25-$9.50.
American Express Company (AXP - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.68, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.7%. The bottom line advanced 13% year over year.
Total revenues, net of interest expense, improved 9% year over year to $20.1 billion. However, the top line missed the consensus mark by a whisker.
American Express raised its 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to $18.30-$18.60 from its previous projection of $17.30-$17.90. The midpoint of which now indicates an improvement of 20% from the 2025 figure.
Management anticipates adjusted EPS to be in the range of $17.60-$17.90 for 2026.
The company reaffirmed its expectation of 10% revenue growth for 2026, supported by continued momentum in Card Member spending, customer acquisitions and its premium membership offerings.
Blackstone’s (BX - Free Report) third-quarter 2026 distributable earnings of $1.32 per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.26. However, the bottom line declined 13% from the prior-year quarter. Total segment revenues for the reported quarter were $3.22 billion, declining 3% year over year. On a GAAP basis, revenues were $3.06 billion, which declined 1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues was $3.12 billion.