Simon Property Group (SPG Quick QuoteSPG - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5, after market close. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display a year-over-year rise in revenues as well as funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this Indianapolis, IN-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) delivered an FFO per share surprise of 3.46%. Results reflected an increase in revenues, backed by a rise in the base minimum rent per square foot.

Simon Property’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.66%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Simon Property Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Simon Property Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Simon Property Group, Inc. Quote

In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. retail real estate market environment and the company's fundamentals. Therefore, analyzing the factors that may have contributed to its third-quarter 2026 performance.

US Retail Real Estate Market in Q3

The third-quarter 2026 U.S. retail real estate market witnessed a strong rebound in demand, with shopping-center net absorption reaching its second-highest quarterly level since the fourth quarter of 2023. Limited new construction continued to support rental growth and historically low vacancy, while resilient consumer spending strengthened market fundamentals.

Per the Cushman & Wakefield report, net absorption reached 3.5 million square feet. National vacancy remained stable at 5.9%, below the historical average of 7.4%. Asking rents increased 2.2% year over year to $25.82 per square foot, while just 2.3 million square feet of new space was delivered. The West led absorption with 1.4 million square feet, while the Midwest recorded the strongest annual rent growth of 3.6%. The South was the only region to witness an increase in vacancy.

Consumer spending remained resilient, with retail sales rising 6% year over year or 4.3% excluding gasoline stations, while unemployment stood at 4.2%. However, the personal saving rate declined to a four-year low of 4.1% in August, reflecting pressure on household finances. The widening spending divide is expected to favor grocery, discount, off-price apparel and health-and-wellness retailers over discretionary categories.

Factors to Consider Ahead of SPG’s Q3 Results

Simon Property Group’s third-quarter 2026 results are expected to reflect steady operating momentum, backed by healthy demand for space across its high-quality retail portfolio. The company is likely to have benefited from strong leasing activity, supporting top-line growth.

Occupancy is also expected to have remained firm, aided by sustained retailer demand and continued leasing efforts. The to-be-reported quarter is also likely to have benefited from contributions from previously completed acquisitions and ongoing development and redevelopment projects.

However, Simon’s third-quarter performance may have faced some pressure from higher interest expenses.

Projections for SPG

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter lease income is pegged at $1.67 billion, up from $1.45 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for management fees and other revenues is pinned at $40 million, up from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure of $36.9 million.

The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is currently pegged at $1.73 billion, which indicates an increase of 8% year over year.

However, the consensus mark for other income totaled $94.7 million, down from $111.7 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Simon Property’s activities during the soon-to-be-reported quarter were adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter FFO per share has been revised 3 cents upward to $3.32 over the past three months. It suggests a 3.1% increase year over year.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for SPG

Our proven model doesn’t predict a likely surprise in terms of FFO per share for Simon Property this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Simon Property currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.38%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Performance of Other Retail REITs

Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT Quick QuoteFRT - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 core FFO per share of $1.87, up 5.6% year over year and above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.85 by 1.1%.

Total revenues increased 5.2% year over year to $339 million and surpassed the consensus mark of $337.4 million by 0.5%. FRT’s results reflected higher rental income, strong comparable retail leasing activity and growth in adjusted comparable property operating income.

Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM Quick QuoteKIM - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 FFO of 47 cents per share, which rose 6.8% from a year earlier and outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents.

Total revenues increased 1.9% year over year to $546.15 million, missing the consensus mark of $551.35 million. Strong leasing and higher minimum rents supported growth, while lower above- and below-market rent adjustments and other rental property income tempered gains.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.