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Astera Labs Plunges 27% in 3 Months: Buy, Sell, or Hold the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • Astera Labs stock dips 26.7% in three months, lagging the technology sector.
  • ALAB's AI connectivity demand and Scorpio growth support strong Q4 guidance.
  • Rising costs, stiff competition and a premium valuation remain concerns.

Astera Labs (ALAB - Free Report) shares have lost 26.7% in the past three months, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the Zacks Internet - Software industry, which declined 7.7% and 0.5%, respectively.

The company’s shares have also underperformed its peers, which include Cisco Systems (CSCO - Free Report) and Marvell Technology (MRVL - Free Report) . Both companies are expanding their footprint in the AI infrastructure space. Shares of Cisco Systems and Marvell Technology have plunged 15.3% and 18.5%, respectively, in the past three-month period.

The underperformance can be attributed to rising operating expenses, increasing R&D investments and persistent supply constraints across the AI infrastructure industry.

However, ALAB’s shares have outperformed its peers in the AI infrastructure space, including Credo Technology CRDO, which has lost 32.9% in the past three-month period. The outperformance can be attributed to its robust, diversified product portfolio that addresses growing demand for AI infrastructure and connectivity solutions, as well as its expanding customer base. Strong demand for its PCIe solutions has also been a major growth driver. These factors have help ALAB to fend off its competitors like Credo Technology.

ALAB Stock Performance

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ALAB Gains From Robust AI Connectivity Portfolio

Astera Labs is benefiting from robust demand for its AI connectivity solutions as hyperscalers accelerate investments in high-performance computing infrastructure. Its expanding portfolio of AI fabric switches, signal-conditioning products, memory controllers and optical connectivity solutions is strengthening its competitive position and supporting revenue growth. In the third quarter of 2026, revenues surged 153.7% year over year to $584.9 million.

The company’s Scorpio AI fabric portfolio remains a major growth catalyst. In third-quarter 2026, Scorpio became its largest product family, surpassing $1 billion in annualized revenues. The high-volume ramp of Scorpio X-Series switches, alongside expanding adoption of P-Series products across hyperscaler platforms, is driving growth. Scorpio X-Series shipments expanded across multiple platforms, while additional customer engagements are expected to support momentum through 2027. 

The company also benefits from increasing adoption of its Aries PCIe Gen 6 retimers and Taurus 400G and 800G connectivity solutions. The introduction of Aries 7, supporting next-generation PCIe Gen 7 copper and optical connectivity, further strengthens its competitive positioning.

The company’s expanding portfolio of Leo smart memory controllers, optical connectivity solutions and Orion rack-scale architecture provides additional growth opportunities. Leo 2 products are expected to ramp in mid-2027, while Orion is projected to begin contributing revenues in 2027.

ALAB Offers Strong Q4 Guidance

Aster Labs is benefiting from strong demand for its expanding AI connectivity portfolio, which is expected to drive growth in the fourth quarter of 2026.

For the fourth quarter of 2026, revenues are expected to be between $730 million and $750 million. The midpoint implies approximately 27% sequential growth, driven by continued Scorpio X-Series and P-Series expansion, Aries PCIe 6 retimer demand and Taurus 800-gigabit deployments. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $642 million, representing year-over-year growth of 137.27%.

Management projects non-GAAP earnings between $1.62 and $1.66 per share in the fourth quarter of 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.36 per share, which has been unchanged over the past 30 days. The figure implies a year-over-year increase of 134.48%.

ALAB Faces Rising Costs and Competitive Pressures

Despite ALAB’s strong demand for its expanding AI connectivity portfolio, the company faced rising operating expenses in the third quarter of 2026, primarily due to increased investments in research and development, workforce expansion and higher variable compensation. 

Non-GAAP operating expenses increased 19% sequentially to $162 million, reflecting higher spending on wafers, masks and intellectual property. Tight wafer capacity, power availability and memory supply across the AI infrastructure industry also posed challenges. Stiff competition from companies like Marvell Technology, Cisco Systems and Credo Technology also remains a concern.

ALAB Shares Trade at a Premium

Astera Labs’ stock is trading at a premium, as suggested by the Value Score of F.

In terms of the forward 12-month Price/Sales, ALAB is trading at 14.23X, higher than the Computer & Technology sector’s 5.01X.

ALAB Valuation

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Conclusion

Astera Labs is well-positioned to benefit from strong AI infrastructure spending, supported by the rapid adoption of its Scorpio, Aries, Leo and Taurus product families. However, its stretched valuation, rising operating expenses and intensifying competition remain concerns. 

Astera Labs currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting that it may be wise to wait for a more favorable entry point to accumulate the stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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