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IonQ Q3 2026 Earnings Tomorrow: Time to Buy Stock, Wait or Sell?
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Key Takeaways
IonQ heads into Q3 earnings with strong revenue momentum, expanding RPO and SkyWater integration.
Revenues are expected to jump 264.4%, but EPS estimates have fallen 38.6% over the past 30 days.
Persistent losses, premium valuation and a negative Earnings ESP support waiting for results and guidance.
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ - Free Report) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2026 results tomorrow, after market close, amid an aggressive expansion strategy, growing commercial traction and continued progress in quantum computing technology. However, a sharp correction in quantum computing stocks, deteriorating earnings estimates and persistent concerns over profitability may weigh on investor sentiment heading into the earnings release.
IonQ’s stock plunged 14.7% during the July-September quarter of 2026, underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 1.6% and the Computer-Integrated Systems industry, which advanced 3.5%. However, the stock outperformed pure-play quantum computing peers, Rigetti Computing (RGTI - Free Report) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS - Free Report) , which declined 15.8% and 29.5%, respectively.
IonQ earnings beat estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other three occasions, the average negative surprise being 67.88%.
How are things shaping up for the third-quarter earnings release? Let’s take a closer look.
July-September Share Performance of IONQ
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Are Estimates Poised for IonQ?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IonQ's third-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at a loss of 30 cents per share, indicating a 91.6% improvement from the year-ago loss of $3.58 per share.
The consensus mark for third-quarter revenues is pegged at $145.3 million, suggesting year-over-year growth of 264.4% from $39.9 million.
However, the earnings-estimate trend raises concerns. The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 38.6% over the past 30 days.
The downward revisions suggest concern about IonQ's near-term earnings prospects, despite expectations of substantial revenue growth.
Revenue growth is likely to remain impressive, partly reflecting the consolidation of SkyWater following the completion of the acquisition on July 31.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What to Expect From IonQ's Q3 Results
IonQ entered the third quarter following a strong second-quarter performance. Second-quarter revenues surged 287% year over year, marking the company's fifth consecutive quarter of record revenues. The figure exceeded the midpoint of management's previous guidance by 20%.
IonQ also exited the second quarter with remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $485 million, compared with $470 million in the first quarter and $122 million a year earlier. The substantial increase provided improved revenue visibility.
For the third quarter, the company's performance is expected to have benefited from continued commercial deployments, cloud utilization, customer engagements and expansion across quantum computing, networking, security and sensing.
However, profitability is likely to have remained under pressure as IonQ continues investing aggressively in research and development, semiconductor manufacturing, commercialization and next-generation quantum systems.
The company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $120.3 million in the second quarter. It remains to be seen whether the rapidly expanding revenue base will begin translating into greater operating leverage from the third quarter onward.
Another important factor will be the contribution from SkyWater. IonQ completed the $1.8 billion acquisition on July 31, 2026, bringing semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging capabilities under its ownership.
The acquisition is expected to improve control over the quantum hardware supply chain, accelerate product development and support the company's longer-term manufacturing ambitions. However, the integration of SkyWater also introduces additional operating costs and execution challenges.
During September's Investor Day, management highlighted progress in semiconductor-based quantum chip manufacturing, including the fabrication of fully integrated 256-qubit quantum processing units at SkyWater. The company also announced that the first ions had been trapped in prototype Superion 256 systems.
IonQ is accepting orders for Superion 256, with customer deliveries expected in 2027. Consequently, the third-quarter earnings may provide further clarity on manufacturing progress, customer demand and the commercialization timeline.
Competitive Positioning
Rigetti: The stock declined 15.8% during July-September, slightly underperforming IonQ. The company continues to advance its superconducting quantum computing platform, focusing on chiplet-based architecture, quantum processing systems and error correction. Its commercial prospects remain dependent on translating technological developments into larger customer deployments and recurring revenues. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
D-Wave Quantum: It was the weakest performer among the three pure-play quantum computing stocks during the third-quarter months. The company continues to commercialize its quantum annealing systems while advancing its gate-model quantum computing roadmap. Its share price decline reflects concerns about valuation, earnings visibility and the commercial scalability of emerging quantum technologies. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for IONQ Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for IonQ this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 (Buy) or 3 increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: IonQ has an Earnings ESP of -33.33%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).
IONQ's Valuation
The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 17.05, which is significantly higher than the sector average of 3.68. This forward P/S ratio raises the risk of a sharp pullback if third-quarter results or the guidance for the rest of 2026 disappoint.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Take
IonQ entered the third quarter with strong revenue momentum, an expanding RPO base, the SkyWater acquisition and technological advancements. The launch of Superion 256 and expansion into quantum security and networking strengthen its long-term prospects. Its revised 2026 revenue guidance of $450-$460 million also reflects the expanded business scale.
However, persistent operating losses, downward EPS revisions, premium valuation and the broader quantum-stock selloff remain concerns. A cautious stance ahead of earnings appears warranted. Investors may be better off waiting for the third-quarter results and updated guidance.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
IonQ Q3 2026 Earnings Tomorrow: Time to Buy Stock, Wait or Sell?
Key Takeaways
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ - Free Report) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2026 results tomorrow, after market close, amid an aggressive expansion strategy, growing commercial traction and continued progress in quantum computing technology. However, a sharp correction in quantum computing stocks, deteriorating earnings estimates and persistent concerns over profitability may weigh on investor sentiment heading into the earnings release.
IonQ’s stock plunged 14.7% during the July-September quarter of 2026, underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 1.6% and the Computer-Integrated Systems industry, which advanced 3.5%. However, the stock outperformed pure-play quantum computing peers, Rigetti Computing (RGTI - Free Report) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS - Free Report) , which declined 15.8% and 29.5%, respectively.
IonQ earnings beat estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other three occasions, the average negative surprise being 67.88%.
How are things shaping up for the third-quarter earnings release? Let’s take a closer look.
July-September Share Performance of IONQ
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Are Estimates Poised for IonQ?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IonQ's third-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at a loss of 30 cents per share, indicating a 91.6% improvement from the year-ago loss of $3.58 per share.
The consensus mark for third-quarter revenues is pegged at $145.3 million, suggesting year-over-year growth of 264.4% from $39.9 million.
However, the earnings-estimate trend raises concerns. The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 38.6% over the past 30 days.
The downward revisions suggest concern about IonQ's near-term earnings prospects, despite expectations of substantial revenue growth.
Revenue growth is likely to remain impressive, partly reflecting the consolidation of SkyWater following the completion of the acquisition on July 31.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What to Expect From IonQ's Q3 Results
IonQ entered the third quarter following a strong second-quarter performance. Second-quarter revenues surged 287% year over year, marking the company's fifth consecutive quarter of record revenues. The figure exceeded the midpoint of management's previous guidance by 20%.
IonQ also exited the second quarter with remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $485 million, compared with $470 million in the first quarter and $122 million a year earlier. The substantial increase provided improved revenue visibility.
For the third quarter, the company's performance is expected to have benefited from continued commercial deployments, cloud utilization, customer engagements and expansion across quantum computing, networking, security and sensing.
However, profitability is likely to have remained under pressure as IonQ continues investing aggressively in research and development, semiconductor manufacturing, commercialization and next-generation quantum systems.
The company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $120.3 million in the second quarter. It remains to be seen whether the rapidly expanding revenue base will begin translating into greater operating leverage from the third quarter onward.
Another important factor will be the contribution from SkyWater. IonQ completed the $1.8 billion acquisition on July 31, 2026, bringing semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging capabilities under its ownership.
The acquisition is expected to improve control over the quantum hardware supply chain, accelerate product development and support the company's longer-term manufacturing ambitions. However, the integration of SkyWater also introduces additional operating costs and execution challenges.
During September's Investor Day, management highlighted progress in semiconductor-based quantum chip manufacturing, including the fabrication of fully integrated 256-qubit quantum processing units at SkyWater. The company also announced that the first ions had been trapped in prototype Superion 256 systems.
IonQ is accepting orders for Superion 256, with customer deliveries expected in 2027. Consequently, the third-quarter earnings may provide further clarity on manufacturing progress, customer demand and the commercialization timeline.
Competitive Positioning
Rigetti: The stock declined 15.8% during July-September, slightly underperforming IonQ. The company continues to advance its superconducting quantum computing platform, focusing on chiplet-based architecture, quantum processing systems and error correction. Its commercial prospects remain dependent on translating technological developments into larger customer deployments and recurring revenues. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
D-Wave Quantum: It was the weakest performer among the three pure-play quantum computing stocks during the third-quarter months. The company continues to commercialize its quantum annealing systems while advancing its gate-model quantum computing roadmap. Its share price decline reflects concerns about valuation, earnings visibility and the commercial scalability of emerging quantum technologies. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for IONQ Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for IonQ this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 (Buy) or 3 increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: IonQ has an Earnings ESP of -33.33%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).
IONQ's Valuation
The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 17.05, which is significantly higher than the sector average of 3.68. This forward P/S ratio raises the risk of a sharp pullback if third-quarter results or the guidance for the rest of 2026 disappoint.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Take
IonQ entered the third quarter with strong revenue momentum, an expanding RPO base, the SkyWater acquisition and technological advancements. The launch of Superion 256 and expansion into quantum security and networking strengthen its long-term prospects. Its revised 2026 revenue guidance of $450-$460 million also reflects the expanded business scale.
However, persistent operating losses, downward EPS revisions, premium valuation and the broader quantum-stock selloff remain concerns. A cautious stance ahead of earnings appears warranted. Investors may be better off waiting for the third-quarter results and updated guidance.