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Can McDonald's Restore U.S. Traffic Growth With New Value Offers?
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Key Takeaways
McDonald's U.S. comparable sales fell 0.2% in Q3 2026 as negative guest counts weighed on results.
Digital deals and Extra Value Meals lifted top EVM unit sales about 7% year over year.
Value tests across more than 40% of U.S. restaurants could pave the way for a national launch in early 2027.
McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) faced pressure on U.S. sales in the third quarter of 2026 as negative guest counts weighed on comparable sales. The company’s U.S. comparable sales declined 0.2%, although performance improved as the quarter progressed, with sales turning positive in September. Value offers and digital promotions helped support this recovery, but further progress depends on attracting more visits while keeping menu prices affordable.
The company restored a broader range of digital offers to encourage visits from active, new and lapsed loyalty members. Promotions included a $2 breakfast sandwich and free fries with a $1 minimum purchase. Initial responses exceeded expectations for incremental guest counts and sales. McDonald’s also shifted marketing support toward entry-level meal deals and Extra Value Meals (EVMs). Unit sales of its top EVMs rose about 7% year over year, with the offers supporting incremental traffic, higher average checks and margins. The company also serves more than 45 million U.S. loyalty members through its app, giving digital promotions a broad customer base.
Further value initiatives are under testing. McDonald’s began an eight-week trial of two affordable menu formats across approximately 1,900 restaurants. The test includes mix-and-match bundles and fixed-price combinations. Franchisees at about 4,000 additional restaurants have introduced similar entry-level offers ahead of the formal results. Together, the participating restaurants represent more than 40% of the U.S. system. A national launch is planned for early 2027.
The strategy offers a path to improving traffic, but the initial recovery does not yet establish a sustained turnaround. MCD must identify offers that attract price-sensitive customers, work efficiently at restaurants and generate incremental sales for franchisees. The results of the tests will help determine whether the expanded value platform delivers broader and more durable traffic growth.
McDonald's and Its Competitive Position
McDonald's faces competition from CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) and The Wendy’s Company (WEN - Free Report) , with both restaurant chains taking different approaches to attract customers and improve restaurant performance.
CAVA is expanding its presence through fresh Mediterranean food, restaurant openings and investments in customer experience. Revenues increased 22.1% year over year to $353.7 million in the third quarter of 2026. Same-restaurant sales grew 3.1%, supported mainly by menu pricing and product mix, while guest traffic remained slightly positive. The company opened 24 net new restaurants, taking the total to 500. However, restaurant-level profit margin declined to 23.4% from 24.6% a year earlier. Higher labor costs, a greater mix of third-party delivery and increased repairs and maintenance weighed on margins. Investments in restaurant operations and guest loyalty remain central to CAVA’s expansion plans.
Wendy’s is taking a different route through its Dave’s Way strategy, which focuses on menu quality, value offers, marketing, restaurant execution and digital ordering. The company is testing improvements to core menu items and plans to introduce a refreshed menu experience in 2027. Delivery promotions have also gained wider franchise participation, with more than 90% of U.S. franchise restaurants taking part. However, U.S. same-restaurant sales declined 5.7% in the third quarter of 2026, as traffic fell 11.9%, partly offset by 6.2% growth in average check. Sales improved 130 basis points sequentially, but the traffic decline shows the scale of the recovery work still facing Wendy’s.
MCD’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
McDonald’s shares have lost 9.1% in the year-to-date ("YTD") period, underperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, the broader Retail and Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 Index.
MCD Price Performance (YTD)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of its forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio, MCD is trading at 20.53, below the industry’s 22.71.
MCD P/E (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MCD’s earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have trended downward in the past 30 days. The revised estimates for 2026 and 2027 imply year-over-year growth of 5.3% and 6%, respectively.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Can McDonald's Restore U.S. Traffic Growth With New Value Offers?
Key Takeaways
McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) faced pressure on U.S. sales in the third quarter of 2026 as negative guest counts weighed on comparable sales. The company’s U.S. comparable sales declined 0.2%, although performance improved as the quarter progressed, with sales turning positive in September. Value offers and digital promotions helped support this recovery, but further progress depends on attracting more visits while keeping menu prices affordable.
The company restored a broader range of digital offers to encourage visits from active, new and lapsed loyalty members. Promotions included a $2 breakfast sandwich and free fries with a $1 minimum purchase. Initial responses exceeded expectations for incremental guest counts and sales. McDonald’s also shifted marketing support toward entry-level meal deals and Extra Value Meals (EVMs). Unit sales of its top EVMs rose about 7% year over year, with the offers supporting incremental traffic, higher average checks and margins. The company also serves more than 45 million U.S. loyalty members through its app, giving digital promotions a broad customer base.
Further value initiatives are under testing. McDonald’s began an eight-week trial of two affordable menu formats across approximately 1,900 restaurants. The test includes mix-and-match bundles and fixed-price combinations. Franchisees at about 4,000 additional restaurants have introduced similar entry-level offers ahead of the formal results. Together, the participating restaurants represent more than 40% of the U.S. system. A national launch is planned for early 2027.
The strategy offers a path to improving traffic, but the initial recovery does not yet establish a sustained turnaround. MCD must identify offers that attract price-sensitive customers, work efficiently at restaurants and generate incremental sales for franchisees. The results of the tests will help determine whether the expanded value platform delivers broader and more durable traffic growth.
McDonald's and Its Competitive Position
McDonald's faces competition from CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) and The Wendy’s Company (WEN - Free Report) , with both restaurant chains taking different approaches to attract customers and improve restaurant performance.
CAVA is expanding its presence through fresh Mediterranean food, restaurant openings and investments in customer experience. Revenues increased 22.1% year over year to $353.7 million in the third quarter of 2026. Same-restaurant sales grew 3.1%, supported mainly by menu pricing and product mix, while guest traffic remained slightly positive. The company opened 24 net new restaurants, taking the total to 500. However, restaurant-level profit margin declined to 23.4% from 24.6% a year earlier. Higher labor costs, a greater mix of third-party delivery and increased repairs and maintenance weighed on margins. Investments in restaurant operations and guest loyalty remain central to CAVA’s expansion plans.
Wendy’s is taking a different route through its Dave’s Way strategy, which focuses on menu quality, value offers, marketing, restaurant execution and digital ordering. The company is testing improvements to core menu items and plans to introduce a refreshed menu experience in 2027. Delivery promotions have also gained wider franchise participation, with more than 90% of U.S. franchise restaurants taking part. However, U.S. same-restaurant sales declined 5.7% in the third quarter of 2026, as traffic fell 11.9%, partly offset by 6.2% growth in average check. Sales improved 130 basis points sequentially, but the traffic decline shows the scale of the recovery work still facing Wendy’s.
MCD’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
McDonald’s shares have lost 9.1% in the year-to-date ("YTD") period, underperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, the broader Retail and Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 Index.
MCD Price Performance (YTD)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of its forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio, MCD is trading at 20.53, below the industry’s 22.71.
MCD P/E (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MCD’s earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have trended downward in the past 30 days. The revised estimates for 2026 and 2027 imply year-over-year growth of 5.3% and 6%, respectively.
MCD Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MCD currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.