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HOOD's October Event Contract Trading Up: Can It Offset Crypto Woes?
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Key Takeaways
HOOD's October event contract trading surged 136% year over year to 5.9B, reflecting strong participation.
Robinhood's crypto trading volumes plunged 48% year over year to $17B, posing revenue headwinds.
HOOD's prediction-market expansion could diversify revenues, but crypto weakness may limit its benefits.
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD - Free Report) reported strong prediction market activity in October 2026, even as cryptocurrency trading volumes declined sharply. Per its Nov. 11 investor presentation, approximately 5.9 billion event contracts were traded during the month, surging 136% year over year and 5% sequentially.
At its Nov. 11 symposium, management emphasized expanding prediction markets beyond sports-related contracts into economic and financial events. This expansion could attract more active traders, strengthen customer engagement and support transaction revenue diversification.
Prediction markets have already emerged as a meaningful business for Robinhood, generating more than $100 million in annualized revenues as of the third quarter of 2026. Rising participation will likely provide incremental revenue opportunities.
Meanwhile, Robinhood's cryptocurrency notional trading volumes declined 48% year over year and 21% sequentially to approximately $17 billion in October. Robinhood App volumes plunged 51% year over year to around $7 billion, while Bitstamp volumes fell 45% to approximately $10 billion.
The slowdown follows a 55% year-over-year decline in third-quarter cryptocurrency revenues, indicating continued pressure on this revenue stream. If subdued trading activity persists, it could weigh on fourth-quarter transaction-based revenues, potentially limiting the benefits of growing prediction-market participation.
Robinhood's expanding prediction market business offers opportunities to diversify transaction revenues and reduce dependence on cryptocurrency trading. However, event contract volumes do not directly translate into revenues, while persistent crypto weakness and regulatory uncertainty could constrain near-term growth. The extent to which prediction markets can offset these headwinds remains uncertain.
How are HOOD’s Peers Faring in Terms of Product Diversification
Schwab is broadening its offerings across ETFs, direct indexing, thematic investing, alternative assets, managed portfolios, banking and digital assets. Expanded crypto access in 2026, alongside personalized investing and advisor solutions, is expected to attract younger and wealthier clients, deepen engagement and help Schwab capture a larger share of client assets.
Interactive Brokers is expanding beyond traditional stocks and options into crypto, perpetual-style futures, prediction markets, AI-enabled trading and broader global-market access. Interactive Brokers’ unified platform now spans 175 markets, helping attract active traders, international investors and digital-asset clients while deepening engagement and supporting market share gains.
Over the past six months, Robinhood’s shares have rallied 10.2%, outperforming the industry’s 4.8% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HOOD shares are currently trading at a premium to the industry. The company has a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 8.26X compared with the industry average of 2.94X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 2.4%. The trend is likely to continue next year, with earnings expected to jump 41.8%. In the past week, earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have remained unchanged at $2.10 and $2.98 per share, respectively.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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HOOD's October Event Contract Trading Up: Can It Offset Crypto Woes?
Key Takeaways
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD - Free Report) reported strong prediction market activity in October 2026, even as cryptocurrency trading volumes declined sharply. Per its Nov. 11 investor presentation, approximately 5.9 billion event contracts were traded during the month, surging 136% year over year and 5% sequentially.
At its Nov. 11 symposium, management emphasized expanding prediction markets beyond sports-related contracts into economic and financial events. This expansion could attract more active traders, strengthen customer engagement and support transaction revenue diversification.
Prediction markets have already emerged as a meaningful business for Robinhood, generating more than $100 million in annualized revenues as of the third quarter of 2026. Rising participation will likely provide incremental revenue opportunities.
Meanwhile, Robinhood's cryptocurrency notional trading volumes declined 48% year over year and 21% sequentially to approximately $17 billion in October. Robinhood App volumes plunged 51% year over year to around $7 billion, while Bitstamp volumes fell 45% to approximately $10 billion.
The slowdown follows a 55% year-over-year decline in third-quarter cryptocurrency revenues, indicating continued pressure on this revenue stream. If subdued trading activity persists, it could weigh on fourth-quarter transaction-based revenues, potentially limiting the benefits of growing prediction-market participation.
Robinhood's expanding prediction market business offers opportunities to diversify transaction revenues and reduce dependence on cryptocurrency trading. However, event contract volumes do not directly translate into revenues, while persistent crypto weakness and regulatory uncertainty could constrain near-term growth. The extent to which prediction markets can offset these headwinds remains uncertain.
How are HOOD’s Peers Faring in Terms of Product Diversification
Two close peers of HOOD are Charles Schwab (SCHW - Free Report) and Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR - Free Report) .
Schwab is broadening its offerings across ETFs, direct indexing, thematic investing, alternative assets, managed portfolios, banking and digital assets. Expanded crypto access in 2026, alongside personalized investing and advisor solutions, is expected to attract younger and wealthier clients, deepen engagement and help Schwab capture a larger share of client assets.
Interactive Brokers is expanding beyond traditional stocks and options into crypto, perpetual-style futures, prediction markets, AI-enabled trading and broader global-market access. Interactive Brokers’ unified platform now spans 175 markets, helping attract active traders, international investors and digital-asset clients while deepening engagement and supporting market share gains.
Robinhood’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimate Analysis
Over the past six months, Robinhood’s shares have rallied 10.2%, outperforming the industry’s 4.8% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HOOD shares are currently trading at a premium to the industry. The company has a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 8.26X compared with the industry average of 2.94X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 2.4%. The trend is likely to continue next year, with earnings expected to jump 41.8%. In the past week, earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have remained unchanged at $2.10 and $2.98 per share, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HOOD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.