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American International Group (AIG) Up 0.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for American International Group (AIG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is American International Group due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

American International Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates

American International Group Inc. incurred third-quarter 2018 operating loss of 34 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of 7 cents.  However, the figure narrowed from $1.22 per share of loss suffered in the year-ago quarter.

This underperformance is due to soft results at Life and Retirement segment.

General Insurance Segment Rebounds

Pre-tax loss of $825 million narrowed from $2.9 billion loss in the prior-year quarter.

Underwriting loss of $1.7 billion narrowed from $3.8 billion loss incurred in the year-earlier period due to lower losses at both North America and International divisions.

Catastrophe loss in North America accounted for nearly half of the overall catastrophe loss in the quarter under review.

Net premium written of $6.8 billion was up 4% year over year.
Combined ratio of 124.4% improved 3270 basis points, primarily owing to decrease in the accident year loss ratio.

Reinsurance covers helped the segment incur lower-than-expected losses.

Life and Retirement Unit Results Weak

The segment reported a third-quarter adjusted pre-tax income of $713 million, down 38% year over year, attributable to soft results across all its divisions. Premium and fees of $943 million slumped 53% year over year, primarily driven by a plunge in premiums & fees from Institutional Markets.

Share Repurchase

In the third quarter, AIG bought back 6.6 million common shares worth $348 million and warrants for $2 million.

Financial Position

As of Sep 30, 2018, the insurer’s adjusted book value per share (excluding AOCI) was $55.58, down 3.2% from the level on Sep 30, 2017, attributable to catastrophe loss and an increase in the ADC deferred gain.

Core adjusted return on equity was (3.6%) compared with (11.6%) a year ago.

As of Sep 30, 2018, the company stood with liquidity and capital of around $4.5 billion. In the third quarter, the parent company received around $1.8 billion of distributions from insurance subsidiaries in the form of cash and fixed maturity securities.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -16.13% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, American International Group has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise American International Group has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.




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