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Why Is Triumph Group (TGI) Down 23.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Triumph Group (TGI - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 23.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Triumph Group due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Triumph Group Beats Q2 Earnings & Revenue Estimates

Triumph Group adjusted earnings from continuing operations in second-quarter fiscal 2019 (ended Sep 30, 2018) came in at 40 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. However, the reported figure declined 23.1% from 52 cents per share in the prior-year quarter.

Including one-time adjustments, the company reported GAAP loss of 30 cents compared with the year-ago figure of 11 cents.

Total Revenues

Net revenues totaled $855.1 million, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $791 million by 8.1%. The top line also improved 14.7% year over year.

Organic sales in the quarter improved 12% year over year, driven by increased shipments for narrow body programs such as the 737 and A320, military platforms such as aftermarket services on the KC-10 and C-17, as well as development programs transitioning into production.

Operational Highlights

In second-quarter fiscal 2019, the company’s operating loss was $2 million, wider than $0.03 million in the year-ago quarter.

Interest expenses and other in the reported quarter were $28.7 million compared with $25.4 million in the year-ago quarter.

Backlog was $4.3 billion, reflecting a 1% increase from the prior-year period.

Segmental Performance

Aerospace Structures: Segment sales totaled $528.4 million, up 18% from $447.8 million in the year-ago quarter. Operating loss was $22.8 million, wider than $9.1 million in the same period last year.

Integrated Systems: Segment sales rose 11.3% year over year to $260.1 million. Operating income was $39.9 million, down 4.1% from the year-ago level of $41.7 million.

Product Support: Segment sales improved 5.6% year over year to $72.2 million in the reported quarter. Operating income summed $11.5 million compared with the year-ago figure of $11.2 million.

Financial Position

As of Sep 30, 2018, Triumph Group’s cash and cash equivalents were $33.3 million compared with $35.8 million on Mar 31, 2018. Its long-term debt (excluding current portion) amounted to $1.61 billion as of the same date compared with $1.42 billion on Mar 31, 2018.

Cash used in operating activities in the first six months of fiscal 2019 was $197.2 million compared with $299.1 million in the corresponding period of fiscal 2018. The company spent $24.3 million as capital expenditures in the first six months of the fiscal year compared with $22.8 million in the prior-year period.

Guidance

Triumph Group reaffirmed its fiscal 2019 guidance. Based on anticipated aircraft production rates and divestitures completed in fiscal 2018, the company continues to anticipate its revenues for fiscal 2019 in the range of $3.3-$3.4 billion. It still expects revenue growth in fiscal 2019, as development programs enter production, as well as sales from continuing programs and new wins offset sunsetting programs.

On the bottom-line front as well, the company continues to expect its adjusted earnings per share in the $1.50-$2.10 band.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -16.74% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Triumph Group has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Triumph Group has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.




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