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Low Rates, Provisions to Mar Truist Financial (TFC) Q1 Earnings

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Truist Financial Corporation (TFC - Free Report) is slated to announce first-quarter 2020 results on Apr 20, before the market opens. Per the Fed’s latest data, commercial and industrial loans (accounting for almost 50% of the company’s total loans and leases held for investment) recorded impressive growth in the quarter, with overall lending activities remaining decent.

Truist Financial anticipates average earning assets balance in the range of $405.5-$406.5 billion for the to-be-reported quarter. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is $402.9 billion.

Lower interest rates and flattening of the yield curve are likely to have hurt Truist Financial’s net interest margin (NIM) in the first quarter. Management expects GAAP NIM in the range of 3.45-3.49% and core NIM in the 3.01-3.05% band.

Thus, net interest income is likely to have been supported by a decent lending backdrop, offset by lower rates.

Let’s check out a few other factors that are likely to influence Truist Financial’s results:

Fee Income: The consensus estimate for insurance commission and operating lease income is pegged at $529 million and $81 million, respectively.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for service charges on deposits is $316 million, while that of income from bank-owned life insurance is pegged at $47 million.

Notably, Truist Financial expects fee income in the range of $2.05-$2.10 billion. The consensus estimate for the same is $2.08 billion.

Expenses: Truist Financial expects non-interest expenses in the range of $3.40-$3.45 billion. This will likely include merger expenses of $100-$150 million and amortization of intangibles within $150-$200 million.

Asset Quality: Truist Financial expects loan loss provisions in $325-$375 million range. This projection was provided before the coronavirus pandemic hit the markets. Therefore, taking coronavirus-induced economic slowdown into consideration, provisions are likely to be higher than expected.

Management expects NCO rates within 35-45 basis points.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets is $615 million.

Here is what our quantitative model predicts:

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Truist Financial this time around, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Truist Financial is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Q1 Earnings & Sales Expectations

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at 54 cents. The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $5.50 billion.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

BCB Bancorp, Inc. (NJ) (BCBP - Free Report) is expected to release quarterly results soon. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.17% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Earnings ESP for Carolina Financial Corporation is +1.43% and it carries a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. The company is expected to report quarterly numbers soon.

SB One Bancorp is likely to report quarterly earnings soon. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +1.56%.

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