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Stocks sold off 1% early on Wednesday. Just as I was starting to feel foolish for saying yesterday that Washington "Does Not Matter!", stocks started to rise nearly erasing all the early losses by the close.
The most interesting news on the day was the slightly lower than expected ADP Employment report which included negative revisions to previous months. I am not going to pretend this is good news. However, I find it to be nothing more than statistical noise. Meaning a touch under expectations, but not anything that says the improvements in employment have reversed course.
We are still in a Muddle Through Economy. Never too hot. Never too cold. And the new readings on ADP employment are right in line with that Muddle Through course which has produced a 154% return for the S&P since March 2009. Not too shabby.
However, this bull rally is becoming mature. Stocks are easily at fair value. Some might even say a notch beyond that.
Until there is a recession in the offing, then no reason to fear losses ahead. More likely 2014 is shaping up to be a sideways year for the overall market. That means about half the stocks will be up and the other half down.
So the path to outperformance is about putting the odds in your favor to own more of the 50% that go higher. And to look at opportunities beyond our borders. And to consider ETFs that tap into the profitable industries and niches. And, and, and...
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