What is going on in this Global Week Ahead?

• The Federal Reserve will get another readout, on the strength of the U.S. labor market, before its March 17-18 meeting
• OPEC+ members meet, to discuss output quotas, and 
• Mainland China decides on its economic goals, for the next year

All of this unfolds, against a fraught geo-political backdrop, with the U.S. expanding its military presence in the Middle East.

And don't forget about tariffs.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) On Friday Morning, the Feb. 2026 Federal Non-Farm Payroll Report Lands

Friday's U.S. employment report will shed light on whether the prior month's unexpectedly strong data was a one-off surprise or signs of a more robust labor market.

The February report is expected to show payrolls rising by 60,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll, after a 130,000 gain in January as the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.

The data, among the last major releases before the Fed's March meeting, come as attention sharpens on how artificial intelligence could affect the labor market and broader economy.

In the coming week, reports on manufacturing and services activity will also offer insight into the U.S. economy's health along with retail sales data for January.
 

(2) Geopolitics Continue to Rear Their Ugly Head Across Global Risk Markets

The run-up in crude oil prices is an indication that geopolitics is again top of mind for investors.

The most visible sign of heightened global anxiety is the price of gold, which has been edging higher again amid talks between the U.S. and Iran aimed at averting conflict having collapsed.

As investors increasingly cite geopolitical anxiety as one of their main concerns, the range of assets potentially affected by these tensions is growing.

The dollar and Treasury securities, for instance, remain on the hot seat as President Trump has pledged, including at last week’s State of the Union address, to replace tariffs overturned by the Supreme Court with other levies.

Longstanding relationships between asset classes are being questioned, and the definition of safe havens and “risk on” assets is up for grabs.

Today, the focus is on oil and gold; tomorrow it could be… anything.
 

(3) Mainland China Makes Fresh Plans, Japan Sells Bonds

Asia's two largest economies will offer key signals to markets. China decides on economic goals, while Japan tests demand in its volatile bond sector.

Beijing convenes its closely watched National People's Congress, where officials are expected to set out targets for growth, inflation and spending.

At December's planning conference, policymakers pledged to maintain a "proactive" fiscal policy to stimulate consumption and investment.

Tokyo will sell 10-year and 30-year government bonds. Yields on those tenors shot to historic levels in January, rattling global debt markets, on concerns about runaway stimulus from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

A measure of calm has returned, but that was shaken on Wednesday when Takaichi's government nominated two dovish academics to the Bank of Japan's board.
 

(4) Crude Oil Prices: A Renewed Focus for Traders

Tensions between the US and Iran escalated dramatically over the weekend. OPEC likely has been put into an emergency footing.

Oil prices have risen +17% in 2026 to their highest since last July. This might look like great news for producers, but higher energy costs generally constrain demand.

The International Energy Agency is forecasting a 2026 surplus of almost 4 million barrels a day, as stronger crude prices suppress consumption.

There could be a limit to what OPEC+ can do to manage the supply side, when the IEA forecasts most extra crude will come from the "American quintet" — the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana — none of which are in the group.
 

(5) Mexico’s Government? Back in Headlines Again this Week

The dust is far from settled after the killing of Mexico's notorious drug lord "El Mencho" last weekend, but traders there will have something else to watch on Monday, when a bill to slash spending on electoral processes by 25% goes to Congress.

The reforms would cut financing for political parties, limit daily TV and radio time, require labels for AI-made content, ban bots, scrap consecutive reelection from 2030 and cap pay for elected representatives and electoral officials.

Opposition party leaders warn it could undermine the entire democratic system and approval won't be easy. The bill will require two-thirds backing of each chamber of Congress, leaving President Claudia Sheinbaum's Morena party relying on its Labor and Green Party allies, both of whom have concerns.

Coming at a time when Mexico is gearing up for crucial trade USMCA renegotiations and with disgruntled drug cartels now trying to whip up a war, it's a lot to be dealing with.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

I picked three top long-term Zacks VGM picks, also on Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) list.

(1) Allstate (ALL Quick QuoteALL - Free Report) : This is a $213 a share stock, with a market cap of $54,3B. It is found in Zacks Insurance-Property and Casualty industry. There is a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Founded in 1931 and headquartered in Northbrook, IL, The Allstate Corp. is the third-largest property-casualty (P&C) insurer and the largest publicly-held personal lines carrier in the U.S.

The company also provides a range of life insurance and investment products to its diverse customer base. It provides insurance products to approximately 16 million households through more than 12,000 exclusive agencies and financial specialists in the U.S. and Canada.

As of Dec. 31, 2025, total policies in force amounted to 210.9 million, up 3% year over year. The company generated $67.7 billion in revenues in 2025, in which Property and casualty insurance premiums witnessed continued growth. Net investment income is also on the rise.

Following the divestiture of the employer voluntary benefits and group health businesses, the Allstate Health and Benefits segment ceased to be a reportable segment starting in the third quarter of 2025. Presently, the company reports through the following segments: Property-Liability and Protection Services.

Property-Liability (91% of total earned prem iums in 2025): The unit consists of the Allstate Protection and Run-off Property-Liability segments.

Allstate Protection provides private passenger auto, homeowners, and other personal lines insurance through a multichannel approach, including exclusive and independent agents, direct online sales and call centers under the Allstate, National General, and Answer Financial brands.

Meanwhile, the Run-off Property-Liability segment manages legacy exposures primarily related to policies issued between the 1960s and mid-1980s.

Protection Services (5%): The unit delivers a diversified portfolio of products and services that enhance customer value and protection beyond traditional insurance. It includes Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Dealer Services, Allstate Roadside, Arity and Allstate Identity Protection.

These businesses offer coverage for consumer electronics, appliances, mobile devices, vehicles, roadside assistance, and identity theft protection, as well as advanced telematics and mobility data analytics.

Distribution occurs through retailers, mobile operators, auto dealerships, digital platforms, workplace benefit programs, and direct-to-consumer channels across North America and select international markets including Europe, Asia and Australia.

(2) Koninklijke Philips (PHG Quick QuotePHG - Free Report) : This is a $32 a share stock, with a market cap of $30.3B. It is found in the Zacks Medical Products industry. There is a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Koninklijke Philips N.V. is the parent company of the Philips Group.

Philips operates in more than 70 countries, offering solutions in diagnostic imaging, image-guided therapy, patient monitoring, consumer health and home care.

Philips reported sales of €17.83 billion in 2025. The company realigned its three reporting operations effective Jan. 1, 2019.

Diagnosis & Treatment businesses accounted for 48% of sales in 2025. The segment focuses on precision diagnosis and minimally invasive treatment. It now includes businesses such as MRI, CT, Diagnostic Imaging, Ultrasound, Image-Guided Therapy, and Enterprise Diagnostic Informatics. It employed 24,544 people worldwide in 2024, reflecting its role in delivering advanced healthcare solutions.

In 2019, Philips launched Azurion in China, following clearance from the country’s National Medical Products Administration.

Connected Care business accounted for 25% of sales in 2025. The Connected Care segment aims to connect patients and caregivers across care settings, delivering clinical, operational and therapeutic solutions. It comprises Monitoring & Analytics, Therapeutic Care, Population Health Management, Sleep & Respiratory Care, and Connected Care Informatics businesses. It employed 16,829 people globally in 2024, emphasizing its focus on enhancing patien t care pathways and outcomes.

The Personal Health business accounted for 20% of sales in 2025. The segment focuses on enabling healthy individual care routines with technology and solutions that support long-term health and well-being. It consists of Oral Healthcare, Mother & Child Care, and Personal Care. It employed 7,991 people worldwide in 2024, highlighting its role in promoting personal health and preventive care.

Other consists of Innovation, Emerging Businesses, IP Royalties, Central costs, and Other. The segment reported sales of €611 million in 2024 compared with €604 million in 2023.

Notably, Philips completed the divestiture of its Domestic Appliances business in the third quarter of 2021.

In 2026, Philips expects to deliver 3-4.5% of comparable sales growth. Further, the adjusted EBITA margin is expected to be between 12.5% and 13%.

(3) Heineken (HEINY Quick QuoteHEINY - Free Report) : This is a $46 a share stock, with a market cap of $90.1B. It is found in the Zacks Beverages-Alcohol industry. There is a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.

Heineken N.V. is engaged in producing and distributing beverages. It offers beer, cider, soft drinks, and other beverages.

The Company's principal global brand is Heineken.

Heineken N.V. is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
 

Key Global Macro

Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payroll report for FEB is the big macro print.

But the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, out on Monday, should be interesting.

On Monday, the Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI for FEB comes out. The prior reading was 50.7. The consensus is for another 50.7 reading.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for FEB comes out. The prior reading was 52.6. The consensus is for 52.3.

The RBA’s Bullock gives a speech.

The BoJ’s Ueda gives a speech.

On Tuesday, the Eurozone core HICP consumer inflation rate for FEB is out. The prior reading was +2.2% y/y.

The Fed’s Williams gives a speech.

Australia’s Q4-25 real GDP growth is out. The prior Q3 reading was +2.1% y/y.

On Wednesday, the U.S. ISM Services PMI is out for FEB. The prior reading was 53.8.

The Fed’s Beige Book on regional economic conditions comes out.

On Thursday, the Eurozone’s Retail Sales for JAN come out. The prior reading was +1.3% y/y.

On Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls for FEB come out. The prior JAN job additions reading was +130K. Consensus looks for +60K this time around.

The prior U.S. household unemployment rate was 4.3%. That should stay steady.
 

Conclusion

On Feb. 25th Zacks Research Director Sheraz Main supplied a closer on Q4 earnings season.

His key points:

(1) Total earnings for the 453 S&P500 members that have reported Q4 results are up +12.2% from the same period last year, on +8.7% higher revenues.

75.1% beat EPS estimates and 73.1% beat revenue estimates.

(2) The Q4 earnings growth pace and EPS beats percentage for this group of 453 index members are tracking below what we had seen from this same group of companies in the preceding period.

The EPS beats percentage is also tracking below the 20-quarter average, for this group of companies.

(3) The revenue growth pace for this group of 453 index members represents a clear acceleration relative to other recent periods.

The Q4 revenue beats percentage is tracking below the preceding period but is otherwise tracking above the 20-quarter average for this group of companies.

(4) Combining the actual results that have come out with estimates for the still-to-come companies, total Q4 earnings are currently expected to be up +13.2% from the same period last year on +9.2% higher revenues.

This will be the 10th consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth for the index.

2.5 years of serial S&P500 EPS growth? We should be happy with that track record!

Enjoy this week’s trading and investing!

Warm regards,

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist