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Okta and Freeport-McMoRan have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 10, 2022 – Zacks Equity Research shares Okta (OKTA - Free Report) as the Bull of the Day and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - Free Report) asthe Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on BlackRock, Inc. (BLK - Free Report) , JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Associated Banc-Corp (ASB - Free Report) .

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks.

Bull of the Day:

Okta is a $9 billion provider of identity security for enterprises. This is a key service where password security is a continuous vulnerability point.

Primary products consist of Okta IT and Okta for Developers. Okta IT Products include Single Sign-On, Mobility Management, Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication, Lifecycle Management and Universal Directory.

Okta for Developers includes Complete Authentication, User Management, Application Programming Interface Access Management and Developer Tools.

Estimates Higher, Stock Clobbered After Quarter Confusion and Management Moves

On August 31, Okta reported second-quarter fiscal 2023 adjusted loss of 10 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 66.67%. The company had reported a loss of 11 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Total revenues surged 43.2% year over year to $451.8 million and surpassed the consensus mark by 4.93%. The upside can be attributed to higher subscription revenues.

Subscription revenues (96.4% of total revenues) surged 43.6% year over year to $435.4 million. Professional services and other revenues (3.6% of total revenues) increased 32.7% year over year to $16.4 million.

While the company's Q2 revenue was solid, leading indicators slipped and expectations for second half billings were lowered as Okta is facing some sales integration challenges with the recent Auth0 acquisition, with heightened attrition and some product confusion, to say nothing of a surprising sabbatical announcement from the COO.

And the implied growth of 19% from management projections is down from 27%.

OKTA shares got hit for 34% on September 1 after this report.

Analysts Run In the Aftermath

The reactions after the quarter have been interesting. While this year's EPS estimates naturally had to move higher on the big positive earnings surprise, there were upward revisions into next year too despite the company re-evaluating out-year targets.

Next year's consensus leaped higher from a loss of 60-cents to a loss of only 31-cents.

But analysts also downgraded the stock across the board on other factors.

Stifel analyst Adam Borg lowered the firm's price target on Okta to $85 from $115 and kept a Hold rating on the shares following a "disappointing quarter" that included go-to-market integration and execution issues with Okta/Auth0.

Borg also noted the uncertainty around COO/Co-founder Kerrest taking a one-year sabbatical, Chief Product Officer Jolly leaving the company, a lowering of fiscal year billings guidance and the re-evaluating of its existing FY26 targets.

He continues to believe Okta is going after a large identity market opportunity and said the "valuation is not overly demanding," but Borg views the stock as "squarely in the penalty box."

Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz lowered the firm's price target on Okta to $110 from $150 and kept a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported "mixed" Q2 results and lowered its FY23 billings outlook, due largely to sales integration challenges associated with core OKTA and Auth0.

While "disappointed" by the results and outlook, Moskowitz notes Okta's valuation and its position as"the leader in the critically important" identity/access management market.

BTIG analyst Gray Powell lowered the firm's price target on Okta to $117 from $152 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q2 results were "mixed" with a slight beat on current RPO offset by issues with Auth0 integration, sales attrition, and a weak macro environment driving a cut in its FY23 billings guidance.

Powell concluded that while he was disappointed by the quarter, he remains positive on Okta's 25% long-term growth story and was also "somewhat encouraged" by the company's increased focus on improved profitability.

Morgan Stanley analyst Hamza Fodderwala downgraded Okta to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $93, down from $150. While Fodderwala still views Okta as a long-term share winner in Identity and Access Management, which the analyst identifies as "a large and rapidly growing market opportunity," recent sales execution issues and ongoing challenges with respect to integrating the Auth0 acquisition from last year leave the company without an effective go-to-market vehicle.

Fodderwala says the company strategic advantage "will take time to recover." Sales execution issues, challenges with M&A integration and a tough macro backdrop add up to leave limited visibility on a return to stabilization.

Finally, on September 15, Jefferies analyst Joseph Gallo initiated coverage of Okta with a Buy rating and $90 price target. The stock's 73% decline year-to-date on "myriad issues," including the cyber incident, macro environment and sales integration, is an "overcorrection."

Gallo sees an attractive entry point for a "leading cyber asset." He believes Okta has a "fantastic product" with a "large and underpenetrated" market.

Bottom line on OKTA: With its unique market position, and buoyant topline growth of 28%, Okta should be a good long-term investment as it falls back to levels not seen since December of 2018.

Bear of the Day:

In late July, Freeport-McMoRan came out with quarterly earnings of $0.58 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.76 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.77 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -23.68%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this $40 billion mining company would post earnings of $0.88 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.07, delivering a surprise of 21.59%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Freeport-McMoRan, which belongs to the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry, posted revenues of $5.42 billion for the quarter ended June 2022, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.48%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $5.75 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.

Freeport-McMoRan recorded net income of $840 million or 57 cents per share in second-quarter 2022, down from $1,083 million or 73 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Company and Quarter Details

Based in Phoenix, AZ, Freeport-McMoRan Inc., formerly Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., is engaged in mineral exploration and development, including mining and milling of copper, gold, molybdenum and silver, as well as the smelting and refining of copper concentrates.

The company conducts its operations primarily through its principal operating subsidiaries, PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI), Freeport-McMoRan Corporation (formerly Phelps Dodge) and Atlantic Copper.

PT Freeport Indonesia’s principal asset is Papua, Indonesia-based Grasberg mine, which contains the world’s largest copper and gold reserves.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share came in at 58 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 76 cents.

Revenues declined roughly 5.8% year over year to $5,416 million. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6,407.8 million.

Copper production rose 17.7% year over year to 1,075 million pounds in the second quarter.

Consolidated sales from mines rose 17% year over year to 1,087 million pounds of copper. The company sold 476,000 ounces of gold and 20 million pounds of molybdenum during the quarter.

Consolidated average unit net cash costs per pound of copper were $1.41, down about 4.7% year over year. The downside was caused by higher sales volume and by-product credits.

The average realized price for copper was $4.03 per pound, down roughly 7.1% year over year. The average realized price per ounce for gold increased around 1.8% year over year to $1,827. The average realized price per pound for molybdenum was $19.44, up around 48.3% year over year.

Financial Position

Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the second quarter were $9,492 million, up 17.6% year over year. The company’s long-term debt was $10,054 million, up around 10.8% year over year.

Cash flows provided by operations were $3,312 million for the six months ended Jun 30, 2022.

Guidance

For 2022, Freeport anticipates consolidated sales volumes to be roughly 4.2 billion pounds of copper.

The company also expects gold sales volumes of 1.7 million ounces for 2022. It also expects sales of 80 million pounds of molybdenum for the year.

For the third quarter of 2022, Freeport expects sales volumes to be 1 billion pounds of copper, 400,000 ounces of gold and 21 million pounds of molybdenum.

As this guidance has been digested, FCX has seen EPS estimates move 30% lower for this year and 35% lower for next year, pushing the stock into the cellar of the Zacks Rank.

Additional content:

Why Is an Earnings Beat Less Likely for BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) in Q3?

BlackRock, Inc. is slated to report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 13, before the opening bell. Its revenues and earnings for the quarter are expected to have witnessed year-over-year declines.

In second-quarter 2022, BLK’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were adversely impacted by an unfavorable operating backdrop, leading to lower revenues and assets under management (AUM) balance. A modest decline in expenses was a tailwind.

BlackRock has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, delivering a surprise of 4%, on average.

BlackRock, Inc. price-eps-surprise | BlackRock, Inc. Quote

The company’s business activities and prospects in the to-be-reported quarter have not encouraged analysts to revise earnings estimates upward. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BlackRock’s third-quarter earnings of $8.19 has been revised 1.1% lower over the past 30 days. The figure indicates a decline of 25.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for earnings is $9.16.

The consensus estimate for third-quarter sales is pegged at $4.52 billion, which suggests a decline of 10.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for sales is $4.69 billion.

Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts for the to-be-reported quarter, let’s discuss the factors that are likely to have impacted the company’s quarterly performance.

Key Factors & Estimates for Q3

BlackRock has been a dominant player in the exchange traded fund (“ETF”) market, given its continued investments in the U.S. iShare core ETFs. With investors increasing allocations toward ETFs instead of alternative investments to reduce management costs, the company’s iShares inflows have been strong over the past several quarters.

Supported by expected asset inflows, BlackRock’s AUM balance is likely to have improved in the third quarter, positively impacting related fees. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM is pegged at $8.78 trillion, suggesting a sequential rise of 3.4%. Our estimate for total AUM for the third quarter is $9.09 trillion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s investment advisory performance fees is pegged at $144 million, indicating a rise of 35.8% from the previous quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for performance fees is $207.7 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total investment advisory, administration fees and securities-lending revenues for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $3.60 billion, suggesting a sequential decline of 2.4%. Our estimate for the same is $3.74 billion.

The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $383 million indicates a rise of 6.1% from the previous quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $376.4 million.

BlackRock’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. Given that the company has been continuing with its restructuring initiatives to modify the size and shape of its workforce, and improve operating efficiency, overall costs are expected to have increased in the third quarter. Our estimate for third-quarter total expenses is $2.90 billion.

Earnings Whispers

According to our quantitative model, the chances of BlackRock beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — which is required to be confident of an earnings surprise call.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BlackRock is -7.79%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks Worth a Look

A couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases, per our model, are JPMorgan and Associated Banc-Corp.

The Earnings ESP for JPMorgan is +2.50% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 14.

Associated Banc-Corp is scheduled to release third-quarter 2022 earnings on Oct 20. The company, which sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present, has an Earnings ESP of +2.39%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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