Thursday, June 16, 2016
In a very data-dependent pre-market, which saw futures down ahead of time, we see new May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Jobless Claims numbers before the opening bell, and results are mixed. We know the Fed won’t raise rates in June, so let’s look at some data that might move the needle at some point in the remainder of 2H16:
Jobless Claims rose from last week’s 264K to 277K, bringing this number beyond the 250-275K range slightly; at this time, this doesn’t look like a drag back up to 300K jobless claims in a week, but pulling down toward 250K would have been better in terms of things like the Fed finally raising interest rates sometime this summer.
Let’s go back to this for a second — earlier this spring, many analysts were looking for a quarter-percent rate hike in June. That Fed meeting has now passed without a hike, and speculation toward a July hike were lukewarm at best following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s words yesterday afternoon. With new bigger Jobless Claims, the paltry 38K non-farm payroll report for June — which sealed the coffin for a June hike — looks to be more justified in light of the much higher June ADP report. In short, a July hike looks to be off the table now, as well.
May CPI numbers came in at 0.2 percent, and ex-food & energy was also 0.2 (0.3 had been expected). Year over year, that number is at 2.2 percent, which is significant in that no CPI number has been higher than the 2.3 percent in February 2016 since February 2008. In other words, we’ve not tipped the scales here, but doing so will remain in the discussion.
Finally, Philly Fed numbers came in at 4.7 percent, which is the highest since the 12.4 read in March. Another positive number will help fortify investors, analysts and Fed presidents’ understanding of a continually growing U.S. economy, albeit at a slow pace.
At last, some relief from Brexit! Sure, oil prices have kept the market tethered lower lately, but positive American econ data is surely not going to be overlooked by those paying close attention to such things.
Mark Vickery
Senior Editor
Image: Bigstock
Jobless Claims Up to 277K, CPI & Philly Fed Better
Thursday, June 16, 2016
In a very data-dependent pre-market, which saw futures down ahead of time, we see new May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Jobless Claims numbers before the opening bell, and results are mixed. We know the Fed won’t raise rates in June, so let’s look at some data that might move the needle at some point in the remainder of 2H16:
Jobless Claims rose from last week’s 264K to 277K, bringing this number beyond the 250-275K range slightly; at this time, this doesn’t look like a drag back up to 300K jobless claims in a week, but pulling down toward 250K would have been better in terms of things like the Fed finally raising interest rates sometime this summer.
Let’s go back to this for a second — earlier this spring, many analysts were looking for a quarter-percent rate hike in June. That Fed meeting has now passed without a hike, and speculation toward a July hike were lukewarm at best following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s words yesterday afternoon. With new bigger Jobless Claims, the paltry 38K non-farm payroll report for June — which sealed the coffin for a June hike — looks to be more justified in light of the much higher June ADP report. In short, a July hike looks to be off the table now, as well.
May CPI numbers came in at 0.2 percent, and ex-food & energy was also 0.2 (0.3 had been expected). Year over year, that number is at 2.2 percent, which is significant in that no CPI number has been higher than the 2.3 percent in February 2016 since February 2008. In other words, we’ve not tipped the scales here, but doing so will remain in the discussion.
Finally, Philly Fed numbers came in at 4.7 percent, which is the highest since the 12.4 read in March. Another positive number will help fortify investors, analysts and Fed presidents’ understanding of a continually growing U.S. economy, albeit at a slow pace.
At last, some relief from Brexit! Sure, oil prices have kept the market tethered lower lately, but positive American econ data is surely not going to be overlooked by those paying close attention to such things.
Mark Vickery
Senior Editor