Are the Futures Higher Because of Jobless Claims Or...
by Jared A LevyOctober 04, 2012 | Comments : 8 Recommended this article: (1)
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Futures were higher ahead of the open, but I believe it was more than a slight beat on the weekly jobless claims. In fact, I am not taking an extremely contrarian view on the topic of jobs.
Even though unemployment claims came in at 367,000 last week versus expectations of 371,000, they are back on the rise again. Last week’s results, which were the lowest in two months, were also revised higher.
The four-week moving average, which I like to use as a less-volatile trend measurement, was unchanged at 375,000.
The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits also was unchanged at 3.28 million in the week ended Sept. 22. Keep in mind that continuing claims does not include the number of workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs.
The ADP was not as sexy as it usually is and traders are expecting just 115,000 jobs to be added in the BLS report tomorrow.
Basically the jobs market is seeing about as much action as a Three Toed Sloth on a hot summer day.
In my opinion, last night’s stellar performance by challenger Romney has re-awoken the sleeping Republican beast. Markets had just about written off a Romney win and what effect that variable could have on the markets.
Last night gave Romney 40% spike in the chances of being elected (according to Intrade.com) and perhaps today’s action is based more on those results than the minor beat in Jobless claims.
I also believe that the market may almost favor “slightly poor to flat” jobs growth because it could mean better chances for a Romney win.
(Let me add that this is not a "Pro-Romney" rant, just that markets historically have favored Republican candidates)
What say you?
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