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Simplify Your Investing Process Using This Top-Down Approach
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“Life is really simple, but men insist on making it complicated.” - Confucius
In investing, as in life, we want to simplify our process as much as possible. I’ve found that the more indicators and nuances that go into a strategy, the less likely that strategy will perform well over the long-term. Anyone can backtest a strategy and massage the data to create the appearance of outperformance.
The true test, however, is how a strategy performs in the real world, in real-time, that spans several market cycles. This year it’s been even more important to have a sound approach that limits losses yet still finds ways to take advantage of the market’s volatility.
While major headwinds still remain for the economy, including lingering (although decelerating) inflation and slowing earnings growth, the market is forward-looking and much of the damage in this bear market may already have occurred. With positive seasonality underway, a Fed that is beginning to slow the pace of rate hikes, and both a falling dollar and treasury yields, the signs are pointing to continued strength in equities off the October lows.
Letting the market guide us rather than trying to predict what will happen is normally the most prudent course of action. The market is the horse and we are simply the caboose, unable to direct or alter its direction. For now, it’s best to target stocks that have displayed immunity to the year’s volatility and are still showing positive trends.
The Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is currently ranked in the top 33% out of approximately 250 industries. Because it is ranked in the top half of all Zacks Ranked Industries, we expect this group to outperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months.
Digging a bit deeper, this group has widely outperformed the market this year with a greater than 15% return:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Despite the impressive price performance, the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry remains relatively undervalued:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Quantitative research studies have shown that approximately half of a stock’s future price movement can be attributed to its industry group. By focusing on stocks within the top industries, we can dramatically improve our odds of success. Let’s take a deeper look at a top-performing stock within this highly-rated industry.
Novo Nordisk is a global healthcare company that engages in the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The company’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment provides insulin, antidiabetic, obesity, and other chronic disease products. NVO’s Biopharmaceuticals segment offers products in the areas of hemophilia, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy.
NVO maintains a strong presence in the Diabetes care market with a broad portfolio, improving its market share to nearly 32% in the last 12 months. Drug sales have been gaining momentum, and label expansion of existing drugs is likely to boost sales further in the coming quarters. In addition, NVO has witnessed encouraging pipeline progress through its developmental drug phase process.
Novo Nordisk has surpassed earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.09%. The healthcare company most recently announced Q3 earnings results last month of $0.86/share, a 2.38% beat over consensus estimates. Sales of $6.17 billion also beat projections and have been steadily trending upward. NVO is expected to grow revenues by 18.8% to $27.23 billion next year. Earnings are projected to rise 22.53% to $3.97 per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NVO stock has been on a tear, as shares have more than tripled in the past four years while showing relatively little volatility. This year, the stock has climbed more than 21%.
Image Source: StockCharts
Novo Nordisk has bucked the market’s downtrend, rewarding shareholders with substantial gains. Given an uncertain economic environment heading into next year, NVO investors have plenty of reasons to remain bullish.
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Simplify Your Investing Process Using This Top-Down Approach
“Life is really simple, but men insist on making it complicated.” - Confucius
In investing, as in life, we want to simplify our process as much as possible. I’ve found that the more indicators and nuances that go into a strategy, the less likely that strategy will perform well over the long-term. Anyone can backtest a strategy and massage the data to create the appearance of outperformance.
The true test, however, is how a strategy performs in the real world, in real-time, that spans several market cycles. This year it’s been even more important to have a sound approach that limits losses yet still finds ways to take advantage of the market’s volatility.
While major headwinds still remain for the economy, including lingering (although decelerating) inflation and slowing earnings growth, the market is forward-looking and much of the damage in this bear market may already have occurred. With positive seasonality underway, a Fed that is beginning to slow the pace of rate hikes, and both a falling dollar and treasury yields, the signs are pointing to continued strength in equities off the October lows.
Letting the market guide us rather than trying to predict what will happen is normally the most prudent course of action. The market is the horse and we are simply the caboose, unable to direct or alter its direction. For now, it’s best to target stocks that have displayed immunity to the year’s volatility and are still showing positive trends.
The Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is currently ranked in the top 33% out of approximately 250 industries. Because it is ranked in the top half of all Zacks Ranked Industries, we expect this group to outperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months.
Digging a bit deeper, this group has widely outperformed the market this year with a greater than 15% return:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Despite the impressive price performance, the Zacks Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry remains relatively undervalued:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Quantitative research studies have shown that approximately half of a stock’s future price movement can be attributed to its industry group. By focusing on stocks within the top industries, we can dramatically improve our odds of success. Let’s take a deeper look at a top-performing stock within this highly-rated industry.
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO - Free Report)
Novo Nordisk is a global healthcare company that engages in the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The company’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment provides insulin, antidiabetic, obesity, and other chronic disease products. NVO’s Biopharmaceuticals segment offers products in the areas of hemophilia, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy.
NVO maintains a strong presence in the Diabetes care market with a broad portfolio, improving its market share to nearly 32% in the last 12 months. Drug sales have been gaining momentum, and label expansion of existing drugs is likely to boost sales further in the coming quarters. In addition, NVO has witnessed encouraging pipeline progress through its developmental drug phase process.
Novo Nordisk has surpassed earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.09%. The healthcare company most recently announced Q3 earnings results last month of $0.86/share, a 2.38% beat over consensus estimates. Sales of $6.17 billion also beat projections and have been steadily trending upward. NVO is expected to grow revenues by 18.8% to $27.23 billion next year. Earnings are projected to rise 22.53% to $3.97 per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NVO stock has been on a tear, as shares have more than tripled in the past four years while showing relatively little volatility. This year, the stock has climbed more than 21%.
Image Source: StockCharts
Novo Nordisk has bucked the market’s downtrend, rewarding shareholders with substantial gains. Given an uncertain economic environment heading into next year, NVO investors have plenty of reasons to remain bullish.