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Q4 earnings report tonight, but all eyes on guidance as 2026 estimates drop hard
$40.7 million expected on the topline would be a 2,020% advance over the year-ago quarter
At $29 billion, ASTS is now more expensive than when shares were $100 with a price/sales ratio of 145X
AST SpaceMobile ((ASTS - Free Report) ) reports their Q4 today after the close and the Zacks consensus among five contributing analysts is calling for $40.7 million on the topline, an expected 2,020% advance over the year-ago quarter.
On the bottom line, the EPS consensus calls for a loss of 18-cents, 50% greater than last year at this time.
But the reason that ASTS slipped into the cellar of the Zacks Rank again last week is that estimates for the current full year 2026 have dropped from a loss of 74-cents to -$0.90 in the past few weeks.
I last wrote about ASTS as the Bear of the Day on January 12 when it was facing a potential double-top above $100. Shares went on to rally above $120 in January, but closed below $80 last Friday.
Here's what I wrote then...
AST SpaceMobile is building the world’s first and only global cellular broadband network in space, accessible directly by standard smartphones.
The SpaceMobile Service is currently planned to be provided by a constellation of high-powered, large phased-array satellites in low Earth orbit (“LEO”) using low-band and mid-band spectrums controlled by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in areas lacking terrestrial network coverage.
From the company website...
"Our BlueBird satellites provide full broadband directly to standard smartphones without specialized hardware or phone modifications. Make video calls, browse the web, and use your apps at 4G and 5G speeds from anywhere on Earth."
To accomplish this, AST SpaceMobile has partnered with over 50 mobile network operators to seamlessly integrate with ground infrastructure and offer a turnkey service to their nearly 3 billion combined subscribers.
Why is ASTS a Zacks #5 Rank Again?
Since reporting a big Q3 EPS miss in November, the profit consensus for 2025 fell 18% from a loss of 90-cents to -$1.06, representing an annual loss of 60%.
And the full-year 2026 was revised downward from a loss of 63-cents to -$0.74.
Earnings estimate revisions are the only metric that the Zacks Rank measures and matches companies against each other on.
But there is another big issue here investors may want to look at.
While revenues ramped dramatically for 2025 from $4 million to nearly $55 million, and this year is projected to grow 376% to $261 million, the stock has rallied strongly to its October highs near $100 -- making shares trade for a stratospheric 138 times sales based on its market cap of $36 billion.
It would take some big sales contracts -- in fact, a doubling of sales -- just to get the ASTS price-to-sales ratio down to Palantir's ((PLTR - Free Report) ) near 70X.
(end of Jan 12 notes)
Fast-forward to March and ASTS has a new problem: that lofty sales growth has been trimmed back considerably. The Zacks consensus among five contributing analysts is now just over $200 million, representing a still-impressive 250% growth trajectory.
But even at a lower market cap of $29 billion, ASTS is now more expensive than when shares were $100, with a markedly higher price/sales ratio of 145X.
Bottom line: If ASTS delivers a solid beat-and-raise quarter today, bullish investors may take the stock higher. But it's really going to have to earn that valuation with some strong numbers, guidance, and new customer deals.
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Bear of the Day: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
Key Takeaways
AST SpaceMobile ((ASTS - Free Report) ) reports their Q4 today after the close and the Zacks consensus among five contributing analysts is calling for $40.7 million on the topline, an expected 2,020% advance over the year-ago quarter.
On the bottom line, the EPS consensus calls for a loss of 18-cents, 50% greater than last year at this time.
But the reason that ASTS slipped into the cellar of the Zacks Rank again last week is that estimates for the current full year 2026 have dropped from a loss of 74-cents to -$0.90 in the past few weeks.
I last wrote about ASTS as the Bear of the Day on January 12 when it was facing a potential double-top above $100. Shares went on to rally above $120 in January, but closed below $80 last Friday.
Here's what I wrote then...
AST SpaceMobile is building the world’s first and only global cellular broadband network in space, accessible directly by standard smartphones.
The SpaceMobile Service is currently planned to be provided by a constellation of high-powered, large phased-array satellites in low Earth orbit (“LEO”) using low-band and mid-band spectrums controlled by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in areas lacking terrestrial network coverage.
From the company website...
"Our BlueBird satellites provide full broadband directly to standard smartphones without specialized hardware or phone modifications. Make video calls, browse the web, and use your apps at 4G and 5G speeds from anywhere on Earth."
To accomplish this, AST SpaceMobile has partnered with over 50 mobile network operators to seamlessly integrate with ground infrastructure and offer a turnkey service to their nearly 3 billion combined subscribers.
Why is ASTS a Zacks #5 Rank Again?
Since reporting a big Q3 EPS miss in November, the profit consensus for 2025 fell 18% from a loss of 90-cents to -$1.06, representing an annual loss of 60%.
And the full-year 2026 was revised downward from a loss of 63-cents to -$0.74.
Earnings estimate revisions are the only metric that the Zacks Rank measures and matches companies against each other on.
But there is another big issue here investors may want to look at.
While revenues ramped dramatically for 2025 from $4 million to nearly $55 million, and this year is projected to grow 376% to $261 million, the stock has rallied strongly to its October highs near $100 -- making shares trade for a stratospheric 138 times sales based on its market cap of $36 billion.
It would take some big sales contracts -- in fact, a doubling of sales -- just to get the ASTS price-to-sales ratio down to Palantir's ((PLTR - Free Report) ) near 70X.
(end of Jan 12 notes)
Fast-forward to March and ASTS has a new problem: that lofty sales growth has been trimmed back considerably. The Zacks consensus among five contributing analysts is now just over $200 million, representing a still-impressive 250% growth trajectory.
But even at a lower market cap of $29 billion, ASTS is now more expensive than when shares were $100, with a markedly higher price/sales ratio of 145X.
Bottom line: If ASTS delivers a solid beat-and-raise quarter today, bullish investors may take the stock higher. But it's really going to have to earn that valuation with some strong numbers, guidance, and new customer deals.