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2 Auto Replacement Stocks to Watch Amid Slower New Car Sales

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The Zacks Automotive Replacement Parts industry is poised to benefit from slower new vehicle sales due to affordability challenges, which is likely to encourage consumers to repair rather than replace their cars. At the same time, the aging vehicle fleet continues to expand, providing steady structural demand for replacement parts. However, rising vehicle complexity, including advanced electronics and EV systems, increases repair costs and operational demands. Ongoing cost inflation and tariff exposure may also put pressure on margins. Overall, demand trends appear constructive, but profitability will depend on efficiency, scale and disciplined cost management. Against this backdrop, a few industry players like LKQ Corporation (LKQ - Free Report) and Standard Motor Products (SMP - Free Report)  are better positioned, thanks to their strategic initiatives.

Industry Overview

The Zacks Automotive – Replacement Parts industry includes companies involved in the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of replacement components for the automotive aftermarket. Industry participants supply systems, components and equipment used to repair and maintain vehicles, including engine, steering, drivetrain, suspension, brake and transmission parts. Demand for replacement parts is generally more resilient than new vehicle sales, as consumers tend to maintain existing vehicles rather than purchase new ones during periods of economic uncertainty. Repairs may be undertaken either by vehicle owners themselves or through professional service providers. That said, the industry is undergoing a period of transition, with evolving consumer expectations, rising vehicle complexity and technological innovation reshaping cost structures and competitive dynamics.

Factors Shaping the Industry Dynamics

Moderating New Vehicle Sales Boost Demand for Repairs: U.S. new vehicle sales are expected to slow down in 2026 as affordability pressures continue. Cox Automotive expects about 15.8 million units sales, down 2.4% year over year. Higher vehicle prices, persistent inflation, rising energy costs and the end of EV tax credits are reducing consumers’ buying power. Financing costs are also taking a larger share of household income, making new cars less attractive. As a result, more consumers are likely to repair existing vehicles instead of purchasing new ones.

Rising Vehicle Age Supports Steady Replacement Demand: As vehicles get older, they require more maintenance and part replacements to remain reliable. With new and used car prices still high, many owners are postponing upgrades and continuing to maintain their current vehicles. The average vehicle age in the United States has reached 12.8 years. This growing population of older cars is expected to drive consistent demand for replacement parts and help support long-term growth in the auto replacement industry.

Growing Vehicle Technology Increases Repair Complexity: Modern vehicles increasingly rely on advanced electronics, ADAS features and EV-specific systems, making repairs more complex and expensive. Aftermarket companies must invest more in diagnostics, technician training and broader inventory to keep up with changing platforms. These added costs can strain margins, particularly for smaller players with limited scale. In this environment, strong operational efficiency, careful capital management and an optimized supply chain are essential to maintain profitability and stay competitive.

Cost Pressures and Tariff Risks Weigh on Margins: Elevated labor, freight and sourcing costs continue to put pressure on profitability across the replacement parts value chain. Although companies have raised prices, full cost recovery remains difficult in a price-sensitive market, limiting margin improvement, especially for smaller firms. At the same time, reliance on imported parts exposes the industry to U.S. tariffs, particularly from China and Europe. While some costs can be passed through, incomplete recovery may add further margin pressure and increase earnings volatility.

Zacks Industry Rank is Favorable

The Zacks Automotive – Replacements Parts industry is part of the broader Zacks Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #91, which places it in the top 37% of around 240 Zacks industries.

The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates decent near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1. The industry’s positioning in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a positive earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate.

Before we present a few stocks from the industry worth considering for your portfolio, let's take a look at the industry’s stock market performance and current valuation.

Industry Lags Sector and S&P 500

The Zacks Automotive – Replacement Parts industry has underperformed the Auto, Tires and Truck sector and the S&P 500 composite over the past year. The industry has declined around 21% against the S&P 500 and the sector’s growth of 30% and 20%, respectively.

One-Year Price Performance

Industry's Current Valuation

Since automotive companies are debt-laden, it makes sense to value them based on the Enterprise Value/ Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio. On the basis of trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA), the industry is currently trading at 8.83X compared with the S&P 500’s 18.44X and the sector’s trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 30.98X. Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 12.73X, as low as 7.52X and at a median of 10.39X, as the chart below shows.

EV/EBITDA Ratio (Past 5 Years)

2 Stocks to Watch

LKQ is one of the leading providers of replacement parts, components and systems that are required to repair and maintain vehicles. The acquisition of Uni-Select has expanded its global vehicle parts distribution business, while its partnership with SYNETIQ aims to enhance the availability of recycled vehicle parts across Europe. LKQ is executing a restructuring and transformation program that targets a leaner operating model across segments. In Europe, a planned ERP migration in a key market was completed in early April 2026, which is expected to be a step toward process standardization and future productivity gains. Strong balance sheet and investor-friendly moves also boost optimism.

LKQ carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LKQ’s 2027 sales and EPS implies 3% and 11% year-over-year growth.

Price & Consensus: LKQ

Standard Motor is a leading manufacturer and distributor of premium replacement parts focused on engine management and temperature control systems. The acquisition of Nissens Automotive has strengthened its global footprint and created a broader growth platform. Standard Motor entered 2026 with solid inventory levels, enabling it to support demand while improving operating cash flow. Most investment in its new distribution center is now complete, which should enhance logistics efficiency over time. The rebound in its Engineered Solutions segment also adds diversification, expanding exposure beyond traditional aftermarket categories and supporting longer-term growth potential.

Standard Motor carries a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SMP’s 2026 sales and EPS implies 5% and 10% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for 2027 sales and EPS implies 3% and 12% growth, respectively, from the projected 2025 levels.

Price & Consensus: SMP

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

 


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