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Are My Eyes Deceiving Me?
Let me see if I got this right. On Tuesday the economic data looked great. Durable Goods, Case-Shiller HPI, Richmond Fed Mfg and Consumer Confidence were ALL better than expected. This likely increases the odds of QE removal. And yet stocks ACTUALLY went up???
Yes, I am being sarcastic because this is the way things should be. Meaning:
Positive economic data = higher GDP = higher corporate earnings = higher shares prices
Yet, of late the equation has been perverted by those afraid of QE tapering. I am not one of them.
The logical next question is: How will investors react to positive economic data going forward?
I would like to think that investors will react as they did on Tuesday with a nearly 1% rise in S&P 500. However, I sense that with stocks still under the 50 day moving average and not so great headlines coming out of China, that the bears will be in control a while longer.
That is why I am only 60% long right now as opposed to the 100%+ long the majority of 2013 up to this point. I recommend you consider similar defensive measures until we get closer to 1500 which will present better buying opportunities.
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Best,
Steve Reitmeister (aka Reity...pronounced "Righty")
Executive Vice President
Zacks Investment Research
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