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The Week that Never Happened

It took only three days to erase the post Brexit correction. That is a shockingly fast rebound that has us testing 2100 once again. It is truly like the Brexit vote, and the week, never happened.

Let's imagine that's true, and Brexit is not even part of the investment equation. Where do stocks head next?

I would say it all depends on the next round of key monthly economic data. Conveniently that starts right away with ISM Manufacturing today.

The hefty bounce in the Chicago PMI announcement on Thursday provided some hope that the manufacturing sector is starting to heal from past weakness. If that improvement shows up in the national ISM report, then investors may be more willing to get back above 2100.

Then next week the vital data points come from ISM Services on Wednesday 7/6 and the June Employment Situation on Friday 7/8. If all three of these reports prove economic health, then it might finally be time to take a run at the all time highs. However, if this data raises concerns about US economic health, then 2100 becomes a ceiling for a while and we float down further in the range.

Best,

Steve Reitmeister

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

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