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Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday in a volatile session that saw the market change from positive to negative 6 times throughout the day.
Plunging oil prices didn't help. Granted, lower oil prices are a benefit to consumers of oil. But not so much for producers and others than benefit from a higher price of oil (or at least a more stable price of oil). Oil futures fell by more than -7% yesterday, the largest one-day decline in three years, and more than ?20% in a little over a month's time.
While oil trading in the mid-$50's is still well above the sub-$30 lows we saw back in 2016, nobody is anxious to revisit those difficult times for producers. Fortunately, there's plenty of traders out there that believe we might have just seen the market's capitulation. Whether we have or not, we are definitely closer to a bottom than before. And a bit of stabilization will go a long way.
In other news, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 107.4. This was off a tad from last month's 107.9. But analysts were quick to point out that 'optimism among small business owners remains near record levels.'
And retail sales via the Redbook numbers showed y/y same store sales up 6.1%, unchanged from the prior week. The report noted however that this is the 'strongest annual growth pace since the 6.5% decade highs seen at the start of October.'
The parade of strong economic numbers continues.
Would love to see the market shake off some of this volatility. We've had more than enough of it this year.
But I think November and December will turn out to be great months as they historically tend to be.
And I'm even more bullish for next year, especially given the stats that show an average 17% gain in years after a midterm election.
So make sure you're talking full advantage of these bargain prices.
See you tomorrow,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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