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Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
Stocks End Mixed As Traders Focus On Earnings, The Economy, And The Election
Image: Bigstock
Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the Dow and the S&P in the red while the Nasdaq was in the green.
It's looking increasingly unlikely that a stimulus deal is coming before the election. Never say never, but it most likely won't come until after the election. How soon after probably depends on who wins. But everybody seems pretty certain a deal is coming soon after. And with COVID cases ticking up, the urgency is only growing.
Election uncertainty is also factoring into the market. But I saw an interesting statistic that said the market, 8 days prior to the election, typically goes up 89% of the time, on average of 2.5%.
Earnings season continues on. It's off to a great start. And we'll get another 920 companies reporting by the end of the week.
The economy continues to impress as well. That was underscored by yesterday's Durable Goods Orders report which increased more than expected by 1.9% vs. last month's 0.4% and views for the same.
The Case-Shiller House Price Index rose 0.5% m/m (adjusted), and 1.1% (unadjusted). On a y/y basis the unadjusted increase was 5.2%, easily beating the consensus for 4.1%.
And the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 29 vs. last month's 21 and estimates for 18. This is the 5th month in a row of manufacturing growth.
Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, Retail and Wholesale Inventories, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the State Street Investor Confidence Index.
The report many are looking forward to, however, is Thursday's first look at Q3 GDP. The official consensus is 30.9% (which would be a record). But some have estimates even higher with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's estimate coming in at 36.2%.
This has been the fastest economic rebound in history.
And the historic growth forecasts suggest there's a lot more upside to go.
See you tomorrow,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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