Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday, but only modestly so.

Oil rose again. After falling as much -43% back in July from the conflict highs made in April, oil is now just -19% from those conflict highs given the increased tensions in the Middle East. This comes despite oil flow from that region back at more than 80% of pre-war levels, and large releases of oil from global reserves.

The market is looking for some sense that tensions will cool. Absent that, oil remains bid up.

Yields, however, eased again. I contend the rising Treasury yields are simply a reversion to the long-run average spread between the Fed Funds Rate (3.88%) and the 10-year (5.22%). (Over the past 40 years (1985-2025), the spread between the two has been 100 to 150 bps, with the median at 120 bps. That spread is currently at 134 bps.)

But yields could be influenced this week when we get today's (10/14), Consumer Price Index (CPI) retail inflation report, and tomorrow's (10/15), Producer Price Index (PPI) wholesale inflation report.

Today's CPI is expected to show headline inflation up 0.6% m/m, with the y/y rate increasing to 3.7% from last month's 3.4%. The core rate (ex-food & energy) is forecast at 0.2% m/m, and 2.5% y/y vs. last month's 2.4% pace.

The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed inflation easing and coming in well below expectations. Still too high. But it was in stark contrast to the worrying that inflation would spike due to rising energy prices.

Will today's CPI also come in below expectations? Or will it show inflation creeping back up? That comes out at 8:30 AM ET.

Earnings season kicked off yesterday with several big banks reporting. But it was a bit mixed.

Goldman Sachs, before the open yesterday, posted a positive EPS surprise of 31.86%, and a positive sales surprise of 10.75%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 31.9% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 23.1%. The CEO said it was the "second highest quarterly net revenues" and "record year-to-date net revenues." Equities trading revenue was a standout performer, jumping 72% in last quarter's showing. Although, they were down -0.23% on the day.

JPMorgan, however, posted a negative EPS surprise of -3.20%, and a negative sales surprise of -3.90%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 13.4%, and a sales growth of 8.06%. Their trading revenue grew significantly as well gaining 46%. But fixed income fell -4%. Expenses rose 12%. And they had a securities loss of approximately $658 million, which shaved -18 cents off their EPS. They were off -0.86% yesterday.

Wells Fargo posted a positive EPS surprise of 1.08%, and a negative sales surprise of -1.26%. That represented a quarterly EPS growth rate of 8.09%, and a sales growth of 2.01%. They were down -3.10% yesterday.

And Citigroup reported a positive EPS surprise of 7.14%, and a positive sales surprise of 0.78%, for a quarterly EPS growth rate of 27.2%, and a sales growth of 7.9%. At $23.85 billion, it was the highest third-quarter revenue in a decade. Nonetheless, they were down -5.60% yesterday.

Today we'll hear from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and State Street.

See you tomorrow,