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The economy's resilience in the face of the Fed's extraordinary tightening campaign has been a pleasant surprise, further reflected by upwardly revised GDP growth numbers for 2023 Q3.
We have started seeing signs of stress at the lower end of income distribution, and one can intuitively project moderation in consumer spending as the economy further slows down under the weight of tighter monetary conditions.
Estimates for 2023 Q4 and following quarters have started to come down, which follows a relatively stable revisions trend over the preceding six months.
Strong Q3 results from mega-cap Tech players have helped the aggregate Q3 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 index turn positive in recent days. Regarding the 'Big 7', Apple and Nvidia now represent the final members of the group yet to report.
With several big-tech companies on deck to report September-quarter results this upcoming week, it's sure to be a busy period. But how do expectations currently stack up?
Commentary from the banks surrounding the economic outlook reflected tentativeness, citing continued downside risks but also acknowledging the economy's resiliency and increasing odds of a 'soft landing.'
The push higher in yields has been reflective of the higher-for-longer Fed view, which in turn has been driven by the U.S. economy's extraordinary resilience.
The Q3 reporting cycle has begun, with results from 16 S&P 500 members out as of September 29th. But the cycle will really pick up steam when the big banks start coming out with their quarterly numbers in mid-October.
We see the seemingly hawkish Fed posture as nothing more than an insurance policy that will come in handy should the recent favorable momentum on the inflation front start stalling.
The overall earnings picture has unfolded much more positively and favorably than many thought possible just a few quarters back. Are there surprises looming?
For Q3, S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to decline by -1.5% from the same period last year on +0.7% higher revenues. However, on an ex-Energy basis, earnings growth in Q3 would actually be positive.
Unsurprisingly, the Fed's extraordinary tightening cycle has been impacting the earnings picture for construction and housing. Where do we go from here?
Higher interest rates and mortgage rates are undoubtedly a headwind for the market. Still, many stocks will thrive even in a high-rate environment if the reason for higher rates is economic growth and positive momentum.
One recurring theme in the Q2 earnings season has been the continued resilience and stability of the U.S. consumer. We heard this from the banks, the leisure and hospitality players, and consumer-facing digital operators. Will retail say the same?
A notable feature of the Q2 earnings season has been the absence of widespread negative guidance that a section of the market has persistently been afraid of.
An important part of Tech's improved earnings outlook over the last few months has been a function of more effective cost controls that have helped stabilize margins. But how will the market react?
There was plenty to like from the banks, with the resilient economy helping keep credit demand positive and higher interest rates allowing them to charge more for those loans.
The June quarter earnings reporting cycle will start grabbing the market's attention this week, with JPMorgan and other big banks coming out with their Q2 results.
This elite group of 7 mega-cap companies currently accounts for 27.5% of the S&P 500 index's total market capitalization and is expected to bring in 16.2% of the index's total earnings this year.
While 2023 Q2 estimates have come down, the magnitude of negative revisions compares favorably to what we saw in the comparable periods of previous quarters.
The analysts covering Nvidia (NVDA) are struggling to come up with superlatives to describe the chipmaker's blockbuster quarterly results. Can the AI momentum sustain?
It is no surprise that the combined weight of elevated inflation, rising interest rates, and uncertainty about the economy has forced consumers to change their spending behavior.
There is undoubtedly stress at the lower end of income distribution. Given this development, one can intuitively project moderation in consumer spending as the economy further slows down under the weight of tighter monetary conditions.
Earnings Preview: Archive
Is an Earnings Recession Coming?
by Sheraz Mian
The economy's resilience in the face of the Fed's extraordinary tightening campaign has been a pleasant surprise, further reflected by upwardly revised GDP growth numbers for 2023 Q3.
CPBNegative Net Change AZOPositive Net Change AVGONegative Net Change
earnings
Retail Earnings Loom: What's in Store?
by Sheraz Mian
We have started seeing signs of stress at the lower end of income distribution, and one can intuitively project moderation in consumer spending as the economy further slows down under the weight of tighter monetary conditions.
AMZNPositive Net Change TGTNegative Net Change WMTPositive Net Change
earnings retail
Q3 Results Reflect Positivity, But Outlook Uncertain
by Sheraz Mian
Estimates for 2023 Q4 and following quarters have started to come down, which follows a relatively stable revisions trend over the preceding six months.
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLPositive Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change NVDAPositive Net Change TSLAPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METANegative Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Q3 Earnings: Tech Sector in Focus
by Sheraz Mian
Strong Q3 results from mega-cap Tech players have helped the aggregate Q3 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 index turn positive in recent days. Regarding the 'Big 7', Apple and Nvidia now represent the final members of the group yet to report.
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLPositive Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change NVDAPositive Net Change TSLAPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METANegative Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Previewing Big Tech Earnings: What Can Investors Expect?
by Sheraz Mian
With several big-tech companies on deck to report September-quarter results this upcoming week, it's sure to be a busy period. But how do expectations currently stack up?
AMZNPositive Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change NVDAPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METANegative Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Analyzing Positive Bank Earnings: An Uncertain Outlook
by Sheraz Mian
Commentary from the banks surrounding the economic outlook reflected tentativeness, citing continued downside risks but also acknowledging the economy's resiliency and increasing odds of a 'soft landing.'
WFCNegative Net Change JPMNegative Net Change CNegative Net Change
earnings finance
Analyzing Q3 Earnings & Higher Interest Rates
by Sheraz Mian
The push higher in yields has been reflective of the higher-for-longer Fed view, which in turn has been driven by the U.S. economy's extraordinary resilience.
JPMNegative Net Change DALNegative Net Change PEPNegative Net Change
earnings
The Q3 Earnings Season Gets Underway
by Sheraz Mian
The Q3 reporting cycle has begun, with results from 16 S&P 500 members out as of September 29th. But the cycle will really pick up steam when the big banks start coming out with their quarterly numbers in mid-October.
NKEPositive Net Change CAGNegative Net Change ADBENegative Net Change FDXPositive Net Change STZNegative Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Analyzing the Fed & Current Earnings Expectations
by Sheraz Mian
We see the seemingly hawkish Fed posture as nothing more than an insurance policy that will come in handy should the recent favorable momentum on the inflation front start stalling.
NKEPositive Net Change COSTPositive Net Change ADBENegative Net Change FDXPositive Net Change
earnings
Previewing the Q3 Earnings Season
by Sheraz Mian
The overall earnings picture has unfolded much more positively and favorably than many thought possible just a few quarters back. Are there surprises looming?
ORCLNegative Net Change ADBENegative Net Change FDXPositive Net Change LENPositive Net Change
earnings
Handicapping Q3 Earnings: What to Expect
by Sheraz Mian
For Q3, S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to decline by -1.5% from the same period last year on +0.7% higher revenues. However, on an ex-Energy basis, earnings growth in Q3 would actually be positive.
KRNegative Net Change AINegative Net Change DOCUPositive Net Change
earnings retail
Breaking Down the Construction & Housing Earnings Picture
by Sheraz Mian
Unsurprisingly, the Fed's extraordinary tightening cycle has been impacting the earnings picture for construction and housing. Where do we go from here?
PWRNegative Net Change LENPositive Net Change
construction earnings home-builder
Why Are Stocks Moving Lower?
by Sheraz Mian
Higher interest rates and mortgage rates are undoubtedly a headwind for the market. Still, many stocks will thrive even in a high-rate environment if the reason for higher rates is economic growth and positive momentum.
AMZNPositive Net Change LOWNegative Net Change NVDAPositive Net Change ULTANegative Net Change
earnings
Retail Earnings Looming: What to Expect
by Sheraz Mian
One recurring theme in the Q2 earnings season has been the continued resilience and stability of the U.S. consumer. We heard this from the banks, the leisure and hospitality players, and consumer-facing digital operators. Will retail say the same?
TGTNegative Net Change WMTPositive Net Change
earnings retail
Technology Sector Market Gains Are Driven by Fundamentals
by Sheraz Mian
A notable feature of the Q2 earnings season has been the absence of widespread negative guidance that a section of the market has persistently been afraid of.
NVDAPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METANegative Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Green Shoots Emerging From the Earnings Landscape
by Sheraz Mian
With a little over half of June-quarter results already out, we can confidently call the overall earnings picture reassuringly stable and resilient.
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLPositive Net Change SBUXNegative Net Change UBERNegative Net Change
earnings
Will Big Tech Earnings Keep the Rally Going?
by Sheraz Mian
An important part of Tech's improved earnings outlook over the last few months has been a function of more effective cost controls that have helped stabilize margins. But how will the market react?
MSFTPositive Net Change NVDAPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change SNAPPositive Net Change METANegative Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Q2 Earnings Season: A Good Start So Far
by Sheraz Mian
There was plenty to like from the banks, with the resilient economy helping keep credit demand positive and higher interest rates allowing them to charge more for those loans.
WFCNegative Net Change JPMNegative Net Change CNegative Net Change
earnings finance
The Q2 Earnings Season Kicks Off
by Sheraz Mian
The June quarter earnings reporting cycle will start grabbing the market's attention this week, with JPMorgan and other big banks coming out with their Q2 results.
WFCNegative Net Change JPMNegative Net Change CNegative Net Change
earnings finance
The Earnings Picture Refuses to Weaken
by Sheraz Mian
With inflation steadily coming down and the labor market staying fairly strong, many in the market are starting to bet on the 'soft landing' scenario.
NKEPositive Net Change ADBENegative Net Change FDXPositive Net Change
earnings
Breaking Down The Big 7 Tech Players' Outsized Roles
by Sheraz Mian
This elite group of 7 mega-cap companies currently accounts for 27.5% of the S&P 500 index's total market capitalization and is expected to bring in 16.2% of the index's total earnings this year.
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLPositive Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change NVDAPositive Net Change TSLAPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METANegative Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
An Early Glance Into Q2 Earnings
by Sheraz Mian
While 2023 Q2 estimates have come down, the magnitude of negative revisions compares favorably to what we saw in the comparable periods of previous quarters.
COSTPositive Net Change AZOPositive Net Change
earnings
Q1 Earnings: Can Artificial Intelligence (AI) Sustain Momentum?
by Sheraz Mian
The analysts covering Nvidia (NVDA) are struggling to come up with superlatives to describe the chipmaker's blockbuster quarterly results. Can the AI momentum sustain?
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLPositive Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change NVDAPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METANegative Net Change
artificial-intelligence earnings tech-stocks
Dissecting Retail Earnings and Shifting Consumer Spending Trends
by Sheraz Mian
It is no surprise that the combined weight of elevated inflation, rising interest rates, and uncertainty about the economy has forced consumers to change their spending behavior.
TGTNegative Net Change WMTPositive Net Change FLNegative Net Change
earnings retail
Retail Earnings Looming: What to Expect
by Sheraz Mian
There is undoubtedly stress at the lower end of income distribution. Given this development, one can intuitively project moderation in consumer spending as the economy further slows down under the weight of tighter monetary conditions.
AMZNPositive Net Change TGTNegative Net Change WMTPositive Net Change
e-commerce earnings retail