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The market's contrasting reactions to December-quarter results from the 'Big 5 Tech Players' - Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta & Microsoft - provides us with useful clues as to what is most important to investors in these mega-cap players.
Broadly speaking, the market's favorable reaction to the Microsoft results is in the same spirit with which it has received all incoming results in the Q4 earnings season. Now let's see what's next...
By the end of this week, we will have seen quarterly results from about 28% of all S&P 500 members and will have a very good sense of whether the earnings-cliff narrative has started unfolding or been further pushed out.
To get a sense of what is currently expected, take a look at the chart below that shows current earnings and revenue growth expectations for the S&P 500 index for 2022 Q3 and the following three quarters.
It is no surprise that the combined weight of elevated inflation, rising interest rates and uncertainty about the economy have forced consumers to change their spending behavior.
The picture that emerged from the Q3 earnings season wasn't great, but it wasn't bad either. To that end, here are the three things we learned from the Q3 earnings season.
The earnings bombshells from Amazon and Meta and sub-par releases from Alphabet and Microsoft have forced us all to revisit our long-held assumptions about the sustainability of these technology leaders' earnings power...
Beyond the big 5 Tech players, total Q3 earnings for the Technology sector as a whole are expected to be down -14.1% from the same period last year on +1.8% higher revenues...
The market liked what it saw in the quarterly releases from JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and even Wells Fargo (WFC) on an otherwise down day for the indexes.
The big bank stocks have been laggards in the ongoing market pullback, though the Finance sector as a whole has held up relatively well on the back of strength in the insurance and regional bank spaces.
We are starting to look at these early reports from FedEx, Nike, Micron and others for their fiscal periods ending in August as giving us a preview of what likely lies ahead as the banks kick-off the Q3 reporting cycle in about two weeks
The Fed has been in tightening mode for a while now, but the unequivocally tough message since Jackson Hole took concrete shape after the recent FOMC meeting. Everyone in the markets appears to have finally 'received the memo'
The shortfall in FedEx Ground, the unit that is tied closely to e-commerce deliveries in the U.S., has read-through implications for the U.S. consumer and operators in the digital economy.
The sector's expected earnings haul in 2022, as well as current estimates for the next two years, represent all-time records for the space, easily surpassing the previous record set in 2008 when oil prices had gone above $140 per barrel.
The overall trend emerging from the Retail sector's Q2 results has been on the weak side, with most operators suffering from softening sales, rising expenses, bigger than expected inventory builds and lowered guidance for the current period.
The Q2 earnings season has turned out to be a lot better relative to what the market feared. While some companies did guide lower, most either reiterated guidance or actually raised their outlook.
No company is completely immune from cyclical forces. But even after conceding that point, it is hard not to be impressed with the strength of the Apple, Amazon and Microsoft numbers...
Beyond the big 5 Tech players, total Q2 earnings for the Technology sector as a whole are expected to be down -8.9% from the same period last year on +2.8% higher revenues...
Bank stocks have been big-time laggards in the ongoing market pullback. This is despite the fact that core features of the economy have been stable and rising interest rates are generally expected to benefit banks since they help expand their margins...
With respect to the evolution of earnings estimates, we should point out that while estimates have come down a bit, they are nowhere near what would be consistent with a significant economic slowdown...
If we look at the revisions trend in the aggregate, at the S&P 500 level, we don't see a lot of movement, as you can see in the chart below that plots the evolution of aggregate Q2 earnings growth estimates for the index since the start of 2022.
There are some in the market that can't see the Fed getting on top of the inflation problem without pushing the economy into a recession. Yet, a recessionary outcome for the economy is neither the consensus view, nor what the Zacks economic team is projecting at present...
Earnings Preview: Archive
Making Sense of Apple, Amazon and Big Tech Earnings
by Sheraz Mian
The market's contrasting reactions to December-quarter results from the 'Big 5 Tech Players' - Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta & Microsoft - provides us with useful clues as to what is most important to investors in these mega-cap players.
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLNegative Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METAPositive Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Will This Week's Big Tech Earnings Be a Train Wreck?
by Sheraz Mian
Broadly speaking, the market's favorable reaction to the Microsoft results is in the same spirit with which it has received all incoming results in the Q4 earnings season. Now let's see what's next...
AMZNPositive Net Change INTCPositive Net Change AAPLNegative Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METAPositive Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Making Sense of the Early Q4 Results: Is An Earnings Cliff Coming?
by Sheraz Mian
By the end of this week, we will have seen quarterly results from about 28% of all S&P 500 members and will have a very good sense of whether the earnings-cliff narrative has started unfolding or been further pushed out.
DFSPositive Net Change JNJNegative Net Change PGNegative Net Change KMBNegative Net Change SYFPositive Net Change
consumer-staples earnings
Plenty of Positives in Big Bank Earnings: What's Next?
by Sheraz Mian
The market liked what it saw in the fourth quarter releases from JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and even Wells Fargo (WFC).
GSPositive Net Change BACPositive Net Change WFCPositive Net Change JPMPositive Net Change CPositive Net Change
earnings finance
Are We Headed for an Earnings Cliff?
by Sheraz Mian
To get a sense of what is currently expected, take a look at the chart below that shows current earnings and revenue growth expectations for the S&P 500 index for 2022 Q3 and the following three quarters.
COSTPositive Net Change CPBNo Net Change AZOPositive Net Change AVGOPositive Net Change
earnings
Breaking Down Retail Earnings That Highlight Slowing Consumer Spending
by Sheraz Mian
It is no surprise that the combined weight of elevated inflation, rising interest rates and uncertainty about the economy have forced consumers to change their spending behavior.
MPositive Net Change TGTPositive Net Change WMTPositive Net Change LOWNegative Net Change FLPositive Net Change
consumer-discretionary consumer-staples earnings retail
Previewing Retail Sector Earnings as Inventory Issues Linger
by Sheraz Mian
The market seems to believe, based on its treatment of the two stocks, that Walmart is further along in addressing its inventory issue than Target.
TGTPositive Net Change WMTPositive Net Change CSCONegative Net Change NVDAPositive Net Change AMATPositive Net Change
consumer-discretionary consumer-staples earnings retail
3 Things We Learned from the Q3 Earnings Season
by Sheraz Mian
The picture that emerged from the Q3 earnings season wasn't great, but it wasn't bad either. To that end, here are the three things we learned from the Q3 earnings season.
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLNegative Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METAPositive Net Change
earnings oil-energy tech-stocks
Making Sense of Big Tech Earnings After Amazon and Meta Tumble
by Sheraz Mian
The earnings bombshells from Amazon and Meta and sub-par releases from Alphabet and Microsoft have forced us all to revisit our long-held assumptions about the sustainability of these technology leaders' earnings power...
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLNegative Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METAPositive Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Here's What to Expect from Big Tech Earnings
by Sheraz Mian
Beyond the big 5 Tech players, total Q3 earnings for the Technology sector as a whole are expected to be down -14.1% from the same period last year on +1.8% higher revenues...
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLNegative Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change SNAPPositive Net Change METAPositive Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Can Bank Stocks Maintain the Recent Momentum?
by Sheraz Mian
The market liked what it saw in the quarterly releases from JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and even Wells Fargo (WFC) on an otherwise down day for the indexes.
WFCPositive Net Change JPMPositive Net Change MSPositive Net Change CPositive Net Change JNJNegative Net Change NFLXPositive Net Change PGNegative Net Change
earnings finance
Why Is the Market So Down on Big Bank Stocks?
by Sheraz Mian
The big bank stocks have been laggards in the ongoing market pullback, though the Finance sector as a whole has held up relatively well on the back of strength in the insurance and regional bank spaces.
JPMPositive Net Change CPositive Net Change NKEPositive Net Change MUPositive Net Change FDXNegative Net Change
earnings finance
Previewing Q3 Earnings Season After Rough Reports from Nike and Micron
by Sheraz Mian
We are starting to look at these early reports from FedEx, Nike, Micron and others for their fiscal periods ending in August as giving us a preview of what likely lies ahead as the banks kick-off the Q3 reporting cycle in about two weeks
NKEPositive Net Change MUPositive Net Change CAGNegative Net Change FDXNegative Net Change STZPositive Net Change
earnings
Recession Fears and the Earnings Outlook
by Sheraz Mian
The Fed has been in tightening mode for a while now, but the unequivocally tough message since Jackson Hole took concrete shape after the recent FOMC meeting. Everyone in the markets appears to have finally 'received the memo'
NKEPositive Net Change MUPositive Net Change ADBEPositive Net Change FDXNegative Net Change
earnings
Reading Q3 Earnings Tea Leaves After the FedEx Bombshell
by Sheraz Mian
The shortfall in FedEx Ground, the unit that is tied closely to e-commerce deliveries in the U.S., has read-through implications for the U.S. consumer and operators in the digital economy.
ACNPositive Net Change UPSPositive Net Change GISNegative Net Change COSTPositive Net Change ADBEPositive Net Change FDXNegative Net Change
e-commerce earnings retail transportation
Exploring the Energy Sector's Ongoing Earnings Boom
by Sheraz Mian
The sector's expected earnings haul in 2022, as well as current estimates for the next two years, represent all-time records for the space, easily surpassing the previous record set in 2008 when oil prices had gone above $140 per barrel.
BPPositive Net Change CVXPositive Net Change XOMPositive Net Change
earnings oil-energy
Exploring Weak Retail Sector Earnings and Guidance
by Sheraz Mian
The overall trend emerging from the Retail sector's Q2 results has been on the weak side, with most operators suffering from softening sales, rising expenses, bigger than expected inventory builds and lowered guidance for the current period.
AMZNPositive Net Change HPQPositive Net Change BBYNegative Net Change LULUNegative Net Change
consumer-discretionary consumer-staples e-commerce retail
3 Key Takeaways from Q2 Earnings Season
by Sheraz Mian
The Q2 earnings season has turned out to be a lot better relative to what the market feared. While some companies did guide lower, most either reiterated guidance or actually raised their outlook.
RLPositive Net Change DISPositive Net Change NWSPositive Net Change FOXPositive Net Change
earnings oil-energy
Apple, Amazon & Big Tech Showcase Their Earnings Power Once Again
by Sheraz Mian
No company is completely immune from cyclical forces. But even after conceding that point, it is hard not to be impressed with the strength of the Apple, Amazon and Microsoft numbers...
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLNegative Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change XOMPositive Net Change WMTPositive Net Change EXPEPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change BKNGPositive Net Change UBERPositive Net Change ABNBPositive Net Change METAPositive Net Change
tech-stocks
Previewing Big Tech Earnings Ahead of a Huge Week for Wall Street
by Sheraz Mian
Beyond the big 5 Tech players, total Q2 earnings for the Technology sector as a whole are expected to be down -8.9% from the same period last year on +2.8% higher revenues...
AMZNPositive Net Change AAPLNegative Net Change MSFTPositive Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change METAPositive Net Change
earnings tech-stocks
Breaking Down JPMorgan, Citi & Big Bank Earnings
by Sheraz Mian
Both JPMorgan and Citi showed strength in Main Street banking, helping partly offset weakness in Wall Street activities
WFCPositive Net Change JPMPositive Net Change CPositive Net Change
earnings finance
Previewing JPMorgan and the Big Banks to Kick Off Q2 Earnings Season
by Sheraz Mian
Bank stocks have been big-time laggards in the ongoing market pullback. This is despite the fact that core features of the economy have been stable and rising interest rates are generally expected to benefit banks since they help expand their margins...
JPMPositive Net Change CPositive Net Change DALPositive Net Change PEPNegative Net Change
earnings finance
Looking for Guidance to Reset Earnings Expectations
by Sheraz Mian
With respect to the evolution of earnings estimates, we should point out that while estimates have come down a bit, they are nowhere near what would be consistent with a significant economic slowdown...
MSFTPositive Net Change ACNPositive Net Change ADBEPositive Net Change FDXNegative Net Change KBHPositive Net Change LENPositive Net Change
earnings energy oil-energy
Previewing the Q2 Earnings Season as Inflation Soars
by Sheraz Mian
If we look at the revisions trend in the aggregate, at the S&P 500 level, we don't see a lot of movement, as you can see in the chart below that plots the evolution of aggregate Q2 earnings growth estimates for the index since the start of 2022.
KRPositive Net Change ORCLPositive Net Change COSTPositive Net Change ADBEPositive Net Change AZOPositive Net Change
basic-materials oil-energy transportation
Breaking Down Earnings Amid Fed Tightening, Economic Slowdown Fears
by Sheraz Mian
There are some in the market that can't see the Fed getting on top of the inflation problem without pushing the economy into a recession. Yet, a recessionary outcome for the economy is neither the consensus view, nor what the Zacks economic team is projecting at present...
KRPositive Net Change
consumer-staples earnings oil-energy transportation