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CSX (CSX) Up 2.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for CSX (CSX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 2.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CSX due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Earnings Beat at CSX in Q2

CSX’s second-quarter 2021 earnings (excluding 12 cents from non-recurring items) of 40 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents. The bottom line surged year over year owing to higher revenues. The year-ago period was characterized by significant downturn in business due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

Total revenues of $2,990 million also outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,971.2 million. The top line soared around 33% year over year owing to growth across all its businesses.

Second-quarter operating income jumped more than 100% to $1,691 million, benefiting from sale of property rights to the Commonwealth of Virginia. Operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) improved to 43.4% from 63.3% in the prior-year quarter, with operating expenses declining 9% year over year. Operating ratio was positively impacted to the tune of 11.7 percentage points from the sale of property rights to the Commonwealth of Virginia. With respect to this metric, lower the value, the better.

Segmental Performance

Merchandise revenues climbed 26% year over year to $1,903 million in the quarter under review. Merchandise volumes increased 21% from the year-ago period.

Coal revenues ascended 47% year over year to $423 million in the reported quarter. Coal volumes rose 44% with increase in both domestic and export coal volumes.

Intermodal revenues augmented 42% year over year to $511 million. Volumes increased 28%, with both domestic and international shipments increasing as a result of tightening truck capacity, inventory replenishments and increase in rail volumes from east coast ports.

Other revenues jumped 51% to $153 million in the reported quarter.

Liquidity & Share Buyback

The company exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $2,986 million compared with $3,129 million at the end of December 2020. Long-term debt totaled $16,229 million compared with $16,304 million at 2020-end. As of Jun 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was $2,399 million compared with $2,184 million in the year-earlier period.

As of Jun 30, 2021, CSX repurchased 40 million shares for $1,252 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, CSX has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, CSX has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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