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A Macro Data-Focused Week: Global Week Ahead

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For the Global Week Ahead, November U.S. nonfarm jobs data, and Euro harmonized consumer price inflation data, can focus the minds of most stock traders.

Still, traders should not ignore the contagion spreading across crypto providers.

There is also growing concern about Mainland China's outlook, given a COVID Omicron variant resurgence. That major government refuses to buy Pfizer/Moderna vaccines.

Finally, in the U.K., speculation in the soccer world goes beyond predicting the World Cup winner, to the sale of major professional soccer clubs.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders:

(1) Will November Nonfarm Jobs Data Surprise Traders Again?

Markets are hopeful the Fed will soon slow the pace of its aggressive rate hikes.

Friday's November jobs data could put that expectation to the test.

The U.S. economy likely created +200K new jobs, a Reuters poll of economists forecasts found, in what would be the smallest gain since December 2020.

Estimates ranged from +150K to +240K.

A higher-than-expected +261K new jobs were created in October, even as the pace of job growth slowed and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, suggesting some loosening in labor market conditions.

Still, five of the last six jobs reports have topped consensus estimates and another strong number could spell trouble for U.S. stocks, cooling the S&P 500's +12% rally since mid-October.

The U.S. dollar, weakened by expectations that rates could soon peak, may head higher.

(2) No Peak Seen for Euro Area Consumer Price Inflation

U.S. inflation may be close to peaking, but Eurozone price pressures remain strong, Wednesday's preliminary November estimate of inflation in the bloc is likely to show.

Inflation in the region was +10.6% in October, more than five times the European Central Bank's +2.0% target. An underlying measure stripping out volatile food and energy prices remains well above target.

ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos warns that the persistency of inflation pressures should not be underestimated. The ECB has hiked rates by 75 basis points at each of its last two meetings, lifting rates by 200 bps to 1.5% in just three months.

Markets price in an 80% chance of another 75 bps hike in December. Indeed, the Fed may be getting ready to slow the pace of its rate hikes, but the ECB is not there yet.

(3) Contagion in Crypto Land

Cryptocurrencies will likely remain under pressure, as the industry nervously waits to see whether any of the dominoes tottering after the collapse of crypto exchange FTX fall over.

Top of mind is crypto broker Genesis, which said on Monday it had "no immediate plans to file for bankruptcy,” after media reports it was struggling to raise cash for its lending unit.

Bitcoin fell to $15,479 that day — a two-year low — though if anything it has held up better than feared, having largely traded sideways since FTX collapsed.

Crypto markets are in disarray, however, and CME December bitcoin futures are trading around $16,000, while the token itself is around $16,400.

That's a massive discount by recent standards.

(4) China’s Government Helps Neither the World Economy Nor Its Citizens

A record number of COVID-19 infections and new lockdowns across China have dampened hopes of a reopening of the world's No.2 economy in the first quarter of 2023.

There are, however, other reasons to be hopeful.

Regulators have announced a plan to prop up an ailing property sector, and four people with direct knowledge told Reuters China's central bank will offer cheap loans to financial firms to buy bonds issued by property developers.

The authorities also look set to impose a fine of more than $1 billion on Jack Ma's Ant Group, setting the stage for ending the fintech company's two-year long regulatory overhaul.

It's going to be a cold winter, nonetheless.

Manufacturing indicators, mainly PMIs, due next week might attest to the weakness already seen across the economy. Beijing has hinted at cutting bank reserve requirements to help support the economy. Economists reckon China will do what it takes to get growth above 5% next year.

(5) Amid World Cup Hype, Selling Soccer Clubs in the U.K.

Maybe World Cup fever is getting everyone excited, but suddenly England's two most storied soccer clubs, Manchester United and Liverpool, are up for grabs to the highest bidder.

AC Milan as well as Roman Abramovich's forced sale of Chelsea have already fetched top dollar this year, so some eye-watering valuations — nearly 7 billion pounds ($8.48 billion) in United's case — are being banded around for this prized pair.

Both clubs have U.S. owners looking to head down the tunnel, but where potential buyers come in from, particularly at these prices when recessions and trophy droughts loom, is uncertain.

Nevertheless, a crowd of billionaires, wealth funds and private equity bankers is cheering from the sidelines.

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

This week, we have three major Zacks #1 Ranked stocks, hailing from the Global Industrial Sector.

(1) Siemens (SIEGY - Free Report) : This is a $68 a share Industrial Services company, with a market cap of $115.5B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

Siemens AG-ADR is the world's largest supplier of products, systems, solutions and services for industrial automation and building technology.

This business area includes Automation and Drives Industrial Solutions and Siemens Building Technologies AG.

(2) Keyence (KYCCF - Free Report) : This is a $429 a share Manufacturing – General Industrial company, with a market cap of $104B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

Keyence is involved in the development and manufacturing of industrial automation and inspection equipment.

The company's product consist of code readers, laser markers, machine vision systems, measuring systems, microscopes, sensors and static eliminators.

Keyence Corp. is based in Osaka, Japan.

(3) Vinci (VCISY - Free Report) : This is a $25 a share Building Products-Heavy Construction company, with a market cap of $59.8B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

Vinci SA is engaged in the construction of buildings and civil structures. The company operates under five major segments, Concessions, Energy, Road works, Construction and Real Estate.

The Group operates mainly in Europe, North America and the United Kingdom.

Key Global Macro

Trader eyeballs will be focused on U.S. core PCE data, out on Thursday, and U.S. nonfarm payroll data for NOV, out on Friday, December 2nd.

On Monday, Australia’s retail sales for OCT came in below forecasts of up +0.3% m/m to +0.2% last month, versus +0.6% m/m in SEP.

On Tuesday, Swiss Q3 GDP should be up +1.6% y/y, with a -0.2% m/m quarterly decline seen.

On Wednesday, China’s NBS manufacturing PMI for NOV should be 49.3, while its non-manufacturing PMI should be 51.7.

There is a non-monetary policy ECB meeting.

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in the Euro Area looks to be up +11.2% y/y in NOV, in a preliminary reading. +10.6% y/y was the prior reading. Not good to see a rise.

Euro Area core HICP looks to be +5.2% y/y.

ADP private payrolls in the USA should be up +101K in NOV, after a +239K OCT print.

On Thursday, U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred consumer price inflation gauge, should be up +4.8% y/y in OCT. +5.1% y/y was the SEP print. Progress?

The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for NOV should be 49.3, after a 50 print in OCT.

On Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls for NOV come out. The prior was +261K.


A week where — nonfarm payroll data and U.S. and European consumer price inflation data — both get released?

This week should end up as a macro data focused trading week.

Yet, political and stock market events can emerge that no one currently sees.

And crypto contagion can spread, outside that poorly-lit trading space, to stocks and the broader financial markets.

Happy trading!

John Blank
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist

In-Depth Zacks Research for the Tickers Above

Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:

Siemens AG (SIEGY) - free report >>

Vinci SA (VCISY) - free report >>

Keyence Corporation (KYCCF) - free report >>

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