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Pre-market futures started the day slightly in the red, and they’ve slid marginally further on new economic data reported before the bell. None of these results are at all earth-shattering; perhaps the markets were headed this direction eventually this session. Currently, the Dow is -2000 points, the S&P 500 -30 and the Nasdaq -120 points. Staying at these levels would stop a two-day “rally” in the indices.
Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expectations: 216K versus 220K expected, up +2000 claims from the slightly upwardly revised 214K the previous week. We remain at roughly the mid-point of the year, comparing April lows to just north of 160K — more than half-century low headline new jobless claims — to a smidge above 260K reported in late July.
Continuing Claims came down to around where the original print last week was: 1.672 million longer-term jobless claims two weeks ago (reported a week in arrears from initial claims) from an upwardly revised 1.678 million the previous week — also marking a cycle high. In fact, we haven’t seen this level of longer-term claims since late February of this year, and we’ve been plateauing here for a few weeks.
All this data continues to depict an historically strong jobs market. But there is one caveat: these are backward-facing numbers. Micron (MU - Free Report) yesterday afternoon announced pending staff cuts to 10% of the company. This follows a dozen or more high-end tech firms that are finally getting around to laying off their massive workforces. Eventually we expect to see these figures show up in jobless claims data, although evidence thus far has been tepid.
The final revision to Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in 30 bps higher than the first two prints: +3.2%. This marks a slightly hotter economy in Q3 than we originally had supposed — the consumer was healthier than initially believed, as was trade. It also looks like inflation metrics were higher in the quarter, as well. Also, depending on how Q4 GDP figures present, we may have seen something of economic gains pulled forward to Q3 from our current quarter.
In all, the impact of these numbers is not overpowering the pre-markets; investors look to be continually manicuring levels of holdings in equities as we get economic data releases that help color in some blank spots in our outlook. Thus far, we’re still not seeing anything crash into the sea of inflation; if anything, we’re getting a little expected turbulence as the Fed continues to try to bring in the economic plane for a safe landing. Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>>
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Jobless Claims Calm, Q3 GDP Upped to +3.2%
Thursday, December 22, 2022
Pre-market futures started the day slightly in the red, and they’ve slid marginally further on new economic data reported before the bell. None of these results are at all earth-shattering; perhaps the markets were headed this direction eventually this session. Currently, the Dow is -2000 points, the S&P 500 -30 and the Nasdaq -120 points. Staying at these levels would stop a two-day “rally” in the indices.
Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expectations: 216K versus 220K expected, up +2000 claims from the slightly upwardly revised 214K the previous week. We remain at roughly the mid-point of the year, comparing April lows to just north of 160K — more than half-century low headline new jobless claims — to a smidge above 260K reported in late July.
Continuing Claims came down to around where the original print last week was: 1.672 million longer-term jobless claims two weeks ago (reported a week in arrears from initial claims) from an upwardly revised 1.678 million the previous week — also marking a cycle high. In fact, we haven’t seen this level of longer-term claims since late February of this year, and we’ve been plateauing here for a few weeks.
All this data continues to depict an historically strong jobs market. But there is one caveat: these are backward-facing numbers. Micron (MU - Free Report) yesterday afternoon announced pending staff cuts to 10% of the company. This follows a dozen or more high-end tech firms that are finally getting around to laying off their massive workforces. Eventually we expect to see these figures show up in jobless claims data, although evidence thus far has been tepid.
The final revision to Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in 30 bps higher than the first two prints: +3.2%. This marks a slightly hotter economy in Q3 than we originally had supposed — the consumer was healthier than initially believed, as was trade. It also looks like inflation metrics were higher in the quarter, as well. Also, depending on how Q4 GDP figures present, we may have seen something of economic gains pulled forward to Q3 from our current quarter.
In all, the impact of these numbers is not overpowering the pre-markets; investors look to be continually manicuring levels of holdings in equities as we get economic data releases that help color in some blank spots in our outlook. Thus far, we’re still not seeing anything crash into the sea of inflation; if anything, we’re getting a little expected turbulence as the Fed continues to try to bring in the economic plane for a safe landing.
Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>>