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Markets Fall from (Near-) Record Highs

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This afternoon, the “pivot party” that began last week in the wake of pending interest rate cuts in 2024 is now over — exactly one week, practically to the minute, in fact. What shut it down is unclear at this moment; there were no major catastrophic events that happened around 2pm ET. The only thing that happened then that didn’t happen previously was that the S&P 500 was about to take out new all-time highs, one day after the Dow did so, as well. We had been seeing the strongest quarterly gains on the S&P since Q4 2020, the start of the Great Reopening.

In any case, the major indices cascaded down pretty much in unison, staged a head-fake turnaround late in the session, then fell further — closing at session lows by the end of regular trading. The Dow dumped -475 points, -1.27%, while the S&P fell 70 points, -1.47%. The Nasdaq performed even worse: -225 points on the day, -1.50%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell -1.89%. Only the Dow remains in the positive in the past five days of trading, while all major indices remain up in the past one month, six months and full year.

Consumer Confidence for December rose unexpectedly month over month, to 110.7, from 102.0 posted for November. Estimates had been for 104.5. The median price of a house rose +4% year over year to $387,600. Gains were across all age groups and income levels — not a recessionary hint in any of this data. Count it as one of the decisive non-movers in today’s market.

Existing Home Sales for November bounced up to 3.82 million from the 3.76 million expected and the cycle low 3.79 million report from a month ago. It’s the first time this figure has gone northward in five months. It’s too early to call a rebound in existing home sales just yet, although this appears to may be another relief-based number based on mortgage rates leveling off in the near future. We’d need a couple more months of this sort of data to make that determination.

Finally, Micron (MU - Free Report) release fiscal Q1 earnings data this afternoon, with the data storage major posting a lower loss than expected on stronger revenue numbers for the quarter, A loss of -95 cents per share was better than the -99 cents anticipated. Revenues in the quarter of $4.73 billion outpaced the $4.66 expected, and next quarter revenues look to jump from $4.99 billion to $5.30 billion in the new estimate. This is the boost in the arm the somewhat lagging stock needed, jumping nearly +5% in after-market trading on the news.

Tomorrow morning, we’ll see a revision to Q3 GDP, expected to tick down to +5.1%. There will also be a new Philly Fed survey on deck, along with Thursday morning Weekly Jobless Claims, as per usual. NIKE (NKE - Free Report) reports earnings after tomorrow’s closing bell.

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