What to expect from the Global Week Ahead?

• U.S. nonfarm jobs data from May
• A European Central Bank meeting, and 
• Big global oil producers all vie for investor attention in coming days

Finally, as a new month dawns, court rulings on U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs suggest further plot twists to the trade story.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—
 

(1) On Friday at 8:30 am ET, June Federal Nonfarm Jobs Report Lands

As ever-changing tariff developments muddy the growth outlook, the May U.S. jobs report will provide key insight into the state of the economy heading into another bout of trade turbulence.

Friday's report is expected to show the economy created 130,000 new jobs, according to a Reuters poll, down from a higher-than-expected 177,000 in April.

The data comes as Federal Reserve officials acknowledge they could face "difficult tradeoffs" in coming months with rising inflation alongside rising unemployment, minutes from their latest meeting show.

Investors have reduced bets on the amount of expected Fed monetary policy easing, with fewer than two rate cuts now priced in by December.

They're also watching the progress of tax-and-spending legislation in Washington, with Trump ally Elon Musk arguing that the tax bill detracts from efforts to reduce the budget deficit.
 

(2) Global Macro Financial Markets Worry, Uncertainty Remains High

Investors must be relieved to leave behind another roller-coaster month. But the back-and-forth in the courts on Trump's tariffs heightens uncertainty ahead.

Still, there's no stopping world stocks, which have long forgotten their "Liberation Day" losses. The S&P 500 index, up over +6% in May, is set for its best performance since November.

The picture is bleaker with focus on fiscal discipline, underscored by the U.S. losing its last top AAA rating.

U.S. 30-year Treasury yields are holding around 5% and led a recent global bond selloff, with Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill seen further raising the already-high U.S. budget deficit.

The dollar has remained -4% lower since April 2 when Trump announced his tariffs.

Debt worries reverberate elsewhere. Japan, where longer-dated bond yields soared to record highs and the sale of such debt has seen tepid demand, remains in focus.
 

(3) OPEC+ Meets

Eight OPEC+ members, in the process of gradually raising output, should meet online on Saturday to decide on an increase in oil production in July.

They may agree an output hike of 411,000 barrels per day, the same as in May and June, OPEC+ delegates tell Reuters. Others say the number has yet to be decided.

OPEC+ pumps about half the world's oil and has agreed on three layers of output cuts since 2022 to support oil prices. Two of these are in place until end-2026, one is currently being unwound by the eight members.

The May and June hikes are faster than originally planned.

The strategy of producers Saudi Arabia and Russia is partly to punish over-producing allies and win back market share. OPEC+ cites healthy market fundamentals as its reasoning.

Oil hit four-year lows in April below $60 after OPEC+ announced accelerating output hikes and as U.S. tariffs stoked growth worries.

It has recovered to about $65 but is still down -13% for the year so far.
 

(4) On Thursday, June 5th, the European Central Bank (ECB) Should Take Its Policy Rate Down — Again

A quarter-point ECB interest rate cut on June 5th that takes the key rate to 2% is a done deal for traders.

The question now is whether the ECB pauses after what will be an eighth rate reduction in the past year. Economists expect the ECB to hold steady come July before cutting once more before year-end.

The economy is holding up better than anticipated and pausing allows ECB chief Christine Lagarde time to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Eurozone inflation data on Tuesday could show headline inflation hit the ECB's 2% target in May. Finally, expect Lagarde to be put on the spot about whether she's likely to complete her term after a press report that she held talks about leaving early to lead the World Economic Forum.
 

(5) Will Asian Central Banks Keep Cutting Their Policy Rates?

Upcoming inflation readings across emerging Asian economies could give investors further clarity on the extent policymakers in the region could go in cutting rates.

Central banks like Bank Indonesia have already resumed easing cycles recently and the market consensus is for more to come, as Trump's sweeping tariffs pose significant headwinds to growth in export-reliant Asia.

With inflation trending downwards and amid a recent surge in Asian currencies, policymakers have found greater comfort in lowering rates. The question now is by how much.

The Asian Development Bank expects growth in developing Asia will ease slightly in 2025 to its slowest pace since 2022.

Elsewhere, Australia releases first-quarter growth data on Wednesday. The numbers pre-date April's tariff chaos so any optimism from an upbeat number is likely to be short-lived.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

I found three different industries posting fresh positive EPS growth revisions.

(1) Fortis (FTS Quick QuoteFTS - Free Report) : This is a $48 a share stock with a market capitalization of $24.2B. It is found in the Electric Power industry. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Fortis, Inc. is engaged in electric and gas utility business.

The company offers regulated utilities comprised of electric and gas as well as engages in non-regulated hydroelectric operations.

It operates primarily in Canada, the United States and the Caribbean.

Fortis, Inc. is based in St John's, Canada.

(2) Fox (FOX Quick QuoteFOX - Free Report) : This is a $50 a share stock with a market capitalization of $22.6B. It is found in the Broadcast Radio & Television industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Fox Corp. produces and distributes news, sports and entertainment.

The company's brand includes FOX News, FOX Sports, the FOX Network, the FOX Television Stations and sports cable networks FS1, FS2, Fox Deportes and Big Ten Network.

Fox Corp. is based in New York.

(3) Carlsberg (CABGY Quick QuoteCABGY - Free Report) : This is a $29 a share stock with a market capitalization of $19.3B. It is found in the Alcoholic Beverage industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

Carlsberg A/S is a global brewing company that has operations in Northern & Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia.

Its beer portfolio includes more than 500 brands.

The company offers its products primarily under the Carlsberg, Tuborg, Baltika, and Kronenbourg 1664 names and local brands such as Ringnes in Norway, Feldschlosschen in Switzerland, Lav in Serbia, and Wusu in western China.

Carlsberg A/S is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.
 

Key Global Macro

The Friday U.S. Federal May nonfarm payroll report is the main macro print.

On Monday, Japan’s Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for May came out slightly above expectations to 49.4, from a downwardly revised 48.7 for April. This is the second-straight up month off a 52-week low set in March.

The Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI for May were below the expected 49.4, to 48.3. This follows the downwardly revised 48.4 the previous month.

The S&P global Manufacturing PMI for May came in slightly below projections to 52.0, from a downwardly revised 50.2 for April.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for May came in-line with expectations at 48.5%, down 20 basis points month over month.

On Tuesday, Mainland China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for May should rise to 50.6 from a prior reading of 50.4. No sign of stress is confirmed here. Yet.

BoJ Governor Ueda gives a speech.

The Euro Area core HICP for May should be +2.5% y/y, down from +2.7% y/y in the prior month’s reading.

U.S. JOLTS job openings for April 2025 come out. I see a 7.19M prior reading.

On Wednesday, there is a Bank of Canada (BoC) policy rate decision and a monetary policy statement. Expect the 2.75% policy rate to remain constant.

The Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions comes out.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) should cut its policy rate to 2.15% from 2.40%. The rate on its Deposit Facility should fall to 2.0% from 2.25%. There will be a monetary policy statement issued, as well.

On Friday, the U.S. Federal nonfarm job additions for May should be +130K, down from +170K in April. The U.S. household unemployment rate should remain at 4.2%.
 

Conclusion

Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian put out Q2 earnings points on May 28th—

(1) Zacks expects total S&P500 earnings for Q2-25 to be up +5.5% from the same period last year, on +3.8% higher revenues.

A broader and greater pressure on Q2 earnings and revenue growth estimates, relative to other recent periods, is seen.

(2) Q2-25 earnings estimates for 15 of the 16 Zacks sectors are down since the quarter got underway.

• Aerospace is the only sector where estimates have moved higher
• The Tech sector’s estimates are down since the start of the Q2 period

But they have notably stabilized in recent weeks.

(3) The Q1-25 reporting cycle is now effectively behind us, with results from less than two dozen S&P 500 members still awaited at this stage.

The Q1-25 earnings cycle has ended for 9 of the 16 Zacks sectors.

(4) Total Q1-25 earnings for the 477 S&P500 members that have reported results are up +11.4% from the same period last year, on +4.4% higher revenues.

74.2% beat EPS estimates and 62.9% beat revenue estimates.

Not much improvement? Yes.

But solid EPS and revenue growth for Q2 remains in play.

Further out in Q3 and Q4?

That may be where the fundamental earnings stress lies.

That’s it for me.

Enjoy an excellent trading week!

Warm Regards,

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist