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NVO vs. LLY: Which Obesity Powerhouse is the Stronger Bet Now?
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Key Takeaways
Lilly's Cardiometabolic Health segment hit $9.2B in Q1 2025, driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound growth.
LLY expects continued gains from manufacturing scale-up, new labels, and geographic expansion.
Novo Nordisk faces leadership change, pipeline setbacks, and market share risks from stronger Zepbound data.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) and Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) dominate the diabetes and obesity market on the back of the tremendous success of their GLP-1 products. Novo Nordisk markets its semaglutide drugs as Ozempic pre-filled pens and Rybelsus oral tablets for type II diabetes (T2D) and as Wegovy injection for weight management. Lilly markets its dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, tirzepatide, as Mounjaro for T2D and as Zepbound for obesity. Novo Nordisk’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment generated $10.4 billion (DKK 73.5 billion) in sales in the first quarter of 2025. Lilly’s Cardiometabolic Health segment, which includes Mounjaro, Zepbound and other medicines for T2D, generated $9.2 billion in sales in first-quarter 2025. While NVO’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment accounts for a huge 94% of its total sales, Lilly’s Cardiometabolic Health segment generates around 72% of its total revenues.
Both Novo Nordisk and Lilly are seeing exceptional sales and earnings growth. But which one is a better investment today? Let’s take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to make an informed choice.
The Case for NVO Stock
Novo Nordisk has a strong presence in the diabetes care market, with one of the broadest diabetes portfolios in the industry. NVO’s success in the past few years is underscored by its semaglutide medicines, mainly Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy, which are seeing great demand trends and driving the top line. In the last reported quarter, Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 sales in diabetes increased 11%, depicting greater patient outreach and market capture. NVO is currently the global leader in the GLP-1 segment of drugs.
Novo Nordisk has been addressing the supply constraints of Wegovy by making investments to increase production. The closing of the Catalent deal last year is expected to help NVO counter supply issues for its GLP-1 products. Wegovy’s label expansion for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has been boosting sales. Ozempic’s label has also been expanded to include treating MACE and chronic kidney disease in T2D patients. NVO recently filed a regulatory application for an oral version of Wegovy.
Both Lilly and NVO have reduced the prices of their obesity drugs, Zepbound and Wegovy, respectively, for patients paying by cash. The lowered price can improve access to medicines and drive their sales.
Novo Nordisk is making good progress with its pipeline, which includes several other new candidates for T2D and obesity, as well as candidates for treating hemophilia.
However, the stock has been under pressure due to disappointing data from two late-stage studies for its next-generation subcutaneous obesity candidate, CagriSema, a follow-up drug to Wegovy. In these studies, CagriSema demonstrated a lower-than-expected reduction in body weight.
Lilly’s Zepbound had earlier outperformed Wegovy (20.2% compared with 13.7%) in a head-to-head weight-loss study. This could lead to a shift in patient preference from Wegovy to Zepbound, potentially resulting in a loss of market share.
Novo Nordisk is also currently facing a major transition in its executive management as CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will step down, due to market headwinds and a decline in the company’s stock since mid-2024. The search for his successor is currently underway.
Additionally, NVO recently ended its collaboration agreement with Hims & Hers Health, which will temporarily hurt its objective of increasing Wegovy’s patient access, resulting in a slowdown in obesity market share gain. Despite the setback with HIMS, CVS Caremark, a major pharmacy benefit manager, had announced that it would make Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy its preferred GLP-1 therapy for weight loss, effective July 1.
The Case for LLY Stock
Lilly boasts a wide range of products that serve a vast number of therapeutic areas. The company focuses primarily on cardiometabolic health, neuroscience, oncology and immunology, which are all high-growth areas with significant commercial potential.
Despite being on the market for less than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound became key top-line drivers for Lilly in 2024, with demand rising rapidly. The drugs generated combined sales of $5 billion in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for around 58% of the company’s total revenues.
Zepbound and Mounjaro sales were hurt by supply and channel dynamics in 2024. However, sales improved in first-quarter 2025, which is encouraging. Investors were impressed by the company’s outlook for 2025, provided in February, particularly the expectations for improvement in sales of Mounjaro/Zepbound. Lilly is hopeful that sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound will pick up in 2025 as it ramps up manufacturing capacity and through label and geography expansions.
To maintain its prowess in the lucrative obesity market, especially in the United States, Lilly is investing heavily in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development. Other pipeline candidates, being developed for different therapeutic areas, are also progressing well.
Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for some other new drugs in the past couple of years across different therapeutic areas like Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla (donanemab). Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in 2025.
Lilly has its share of problems. Sales of its key medicine, Trulicity, are declining in the United States due to competitive dynamics, including Mounjaro switches and supply constraints. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States. Potential competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is another headwind.
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
Competition in the obesity market is heating up as the obesity market is expected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Lilly and Novo presently dominate the market. In order to maintain their position, both NVO and LLY are investing broadly in obesity and have several new molecules currently in clinical development.
Several companies like Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.
In March, Amgen initiated two phase III studies on MariTide in obesity as part of its comprehensive MARITIME phase III program. Separate phase III studies on MariTide in obesity, with or without type II diabetes, are currently enrolling patients. Additional MARITIME phase III studies on MariTide in people living with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure and obstructive sleep apnea will be initiated in 2025. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Recently, Viking Therapeutics initiated a late-stage program (VANQUISH), comprising two phase III studies evaluating the subcutaneous version of VK2735 in obesity and T2D patients. VKTX had also initiated a mid-stage study (VENTURE) on the oral formulation of the candidate earlier this year.
How Do Estimates Compare for NVO & LLY?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo Nordisk’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 18.94% and 18.90%, respectively. While EPS estimates for 2025 have risen over the past 30 days, the same for 2026 have declined over the same time frame.
NVO Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 33.03% and 68.98%, respectively. While EPS estimates for 2025 have declined over the past 30 days, the same for 2026 have risen over the same time frame.
LLY Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation of NVO & LLY
Year to date, while LLY has gained 3%, Novo Nordisk has plunged 21.3% compared with the industry’s decline of 2.2%
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both Lilly and NVO are priced higher than the industry from a valuation standpoint. Lilly is more expensive than Novo Nordisk, going by the price/earnings ratio. Lilly’s shares currently trade at 30.21 forward earnings, higher than 16.05 for NVO. However, with the markets hitting new lows due to rising Israel-Iran tensions, both NVO and LLY are trading at discounts to their five-year mean.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lilly’s dividend yield is 0.76%, while NVO’s is much higher at 2.42%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lilly’s return on equity of 85.52% is higher than NVO’s 80.95%
Novo Nordisk is a good stock to have in one’s portfolio with strong growth prospects. However, given a choice between NVO and LLY, it’s better to go for Lilly, as NVO’s recent pipeline and regulatory setbacks have resulted in the stock crashing 52.6% in the past year. This has created a bearish sentiment around the stock. The company is also going through a leadership change, which makes it a risky bet for investors in the short term.
Lilly, on the other hand, with its much more diversified product and pipeline portfolio, robust growth prospects and rising estimates, is a clear-cut winner despite its expensive valuation. Lilly is also a much bigger company than Novo Nordisk. Lilly’s market cap is around $750 billion, while NVO’s market cap is around $300 billion.
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NVO vs. LLY: Which Obesity Powerhouse is the Stronger Bet Now?
Key Takeaways
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) and Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) dominate the diabetes and obesity market on the back of the tremendous success of their GLP-1 products. Novo Nordisk markets its semaglutide drugs as Ozempic pre-filled pens and Rybelsus oral tablets for type II diabetes (T2D) and as Wegovy injection for weight management. Lilly markets its dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, tirzepatide, as Mounjaro for T2D and as Zepbound for obesity. Novo Nordisk’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment generated $10.4 billion (DKK 73.5 billion) in sales in the first quarter of 2025. Lilly’s Cardiometabolic Health segment, which includes Mounjaro, Zepbound and other medicines for T2D, generated $9.2 billion in sales in first-quarter 2025. While NVO’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment accounts for a huge 94% of its total sales, Lilly’s Cardiometabolic Health segment generates around 72% of its total revenues.
Both Novo Nordisk and Lilly are seeing exceptional sales and earnings growth. But which one is a better investment today? Let’s take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to make an informed choice.
The Case for NVO Stock
Novo Nordisk has a strong presence in the diabetes care market, with one of the broadest diabetes portfolios in the industry. NVO’s success in the past few years is underscored by its semaglutide medicines, mainly Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy, which are seeing great demand trends and driving the top line. In the last reported quarter, Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 sales in diabetes increased 11%, depicting greater patient outreach and market capture. NVO is currently the global leader in the GLP-1 segment of drugs.
Novo Nordisk has been addressing the supply constraints of Wegovy by making investments to increase production. The closing of the Catalent deal last year is expected to help NVO counter supply issues for its GLP-1 products. Wegovy’s label expansion for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has been boosting sales. Ozempic’s label has also been expanded to include treating MACE and chronic kidney disease in T2D patients. NVO recently filed a regulatory application for an oral version of Wegovy.
Both Lilly and NVO have reduced the prices of their obesity drugs, Zepbound and Wegovy, respectively, for patients paying by cash. The lowered price can improve access to medicines and drive their sales.
Novo Nordisk is making good progress with its pipeline, which includes several other new candidates for T2D and obesity, as well as candidates for treating hemophilia.
However, the stock has been under pressure due to disappointing data from two late-stage studies for its next-generation subcutaneous obesity candidate, CagriSema, a follow-up drug to Wegovy. In these studies, CagriSema demonstrated a lower-than-expected reduction in body weight.
Lilly’s Zepbound had earlier outperformed Wegovy (20.2% compared with 13.7%) in a head-to-head weight-loss study. This could lead to a shift in patient preference from Wegovy to Zepbound, potentially resulting in a loss of market share.
Novo Nordisk is also currently facing a major transition in its executive management as CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will step down, due to market headwinds and a decline in the company’s stock since mid-2024. The search for his successor is currently underway.
Additionally, NVO recently ended its collaboration agreement with Hims & Hers Health, which will temporarily hurt its objective of increasing Wegovy’s patient access, resulting in a slowdown in obesity market share gain. Despite the setback with HIMS, CVS Caremark, a major pharmacy benefit manager, had announced that it would make Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy its preferred GLP-1 therapy for weight loss, effective July 1.
The Case for LLY Stock
Lilly boasts a wide range of products that serve a vast number of therapeutic areas. The company focuses primarily on cardiometabolic health, neuroscience, oncology and immunology, which are all high-growth areas with significant commercial potential.
Despite being on the market for less than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound became key top-line drivers for Lilly in 2024, with demand rising rapidly. The drugs generated combined sales of $5 billion in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for around 58% of the company’s total revenues.
Zepbound and Mounjaro sales were hurt by supply and channel dynamics in 2024. However, sales improved in first-quarter 2025, which is encouraging. Investors were impressed by the company’s outlook for 2025, provided in February, particularly the expectations for improvement in sales of Mounjaro/Zepbound. Lilly is hopeful that sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound will pick up in 2025 as it ramps up manufacturing capacity and through label and geography expansions.
To maintain its prowess in the lucrative obesity market, especially in the United States, Lilly is investing heavily in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development. Other pipeline candidates, being developed for different therapeutic areas, are also progressing well.
Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for some other new drugs in the past couple of years across different therapeutic areas like Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla (donanemab). Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in 2025.
Lilly has its share of problems. Sales of its key medicine, Trulicity, are declining in the United States due to competitive dynamics, including Mounjaro switches and supply constraints. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States. Potential competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is another headwind.
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
Competition in the obesity market is heating up as the obesity market is expected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Lilly and Novo presently dominate the market. In order to maintain their position, both NVO and LLY are investing broadly in obesity and have several new molecules currently in clinical development.
Several companies like Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.
In March, Amgen initiated two phase III studies on MariTide in obesity as part of its comprehensive MARITIME phase III program. Separate phase III studies on MariTide in obesity, with or without type II diabetes, are currently enrolling patients. Additional MARITIME phase III studies on MariTide in people living with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure and obstructive sleep apnea will be initiated in 2025. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Recently, Viking Therapeutics initiated a late-stage program (VANQUISH), comprising two phase III studies evaluating the subcutaneous version of VK2735 in obesity and T2D patients. VKTX had also initiated a mid-stage study (VENTURE) on the oral formulation of the candidate earlier this year.
How Do Estimates Compare for NVO & LLY?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo Nordisk’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 18.94% and 18.90%, respectively. While EPS estimates for 2025 have risen over the past 30 days, the same for 2026 have declined over the same time frame.
NVO Estimate Movement
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 33.03% and 68.98%, respectively. While EPS estimates for 2025 have declined over the past 30 days, the same for 2026 have risen over the same time frame.
LLY Estimate Movement
Price Performance and Valuation of NVO & LLY
Year to date, while LLY has gained 3%, Novo Nordisk has plunged 21.3% compared with the industry’s decline of 2.2%
Both Lilly and NVO are priced higher than the industry from a valuation standpoint. Lilly is more expensive than Novo Nordisk, going by the price/earnings ratio. Lilly’s shares currently trade at 30.21 forward earnings, higher than 16.05 for NVO. However, with the markets hitting new lows due to rising Israel-Iran tensions, both NVO and LLY are trading at discounts to their five-year mean.
Lilly’s dividend yield is 0.76%, while NVO’s is much higher at 2.42%.
Lilly’s return on equity of 85.52% is higher than NVO’s 80.95%
NVO or LLY: Which is a Better Pick?
Both Lilly and Novo Nordisk have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which makes choosing one stock a difficult task. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Novo Nordisk is a good stock to have in one’s portfolio with strong growth prospects. However, given a choice between NVO and LLY, it’s better to go for Lilly, as NVO’s recent pipeline and regulatory setbacks have resulted in the stock crashing 52.6% in the past year. This has created a bearish sentiment around the stock. The company is also going through a leadership change, which makes it a risky bet for investors in the short term.
Lilly, on the other hand, with its much more diversified product and pipeline portfolio, robust growth prospects and rising estimates, is a clear-cut winner despite its expensive valuation. Lilly is also a much bigger company than Novo Nordisk. Lilly’s market cap is around $750 billion, while NVO’s market cap is around $300 billion.