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How to Find Strong Basic Materials Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises

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Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Nucor?

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Nucor (NUE - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $2.60 a share seven days away from its upcoming earnings release on July 28, 2025.

NUE has an Earnings ESP figure of +2.41%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.60 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.53. Nucor is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

NUE is one of just a large database of Basic Materials stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is PPG Industries (PPG - Free Report) .

PPG Industries is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on July 29, 2025. PPG's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.23 a share eight days from its next earnings release.

For PPG Industries, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.22 is +0.65%.

NUE and PPG's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


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Nucor Corporation (NUE) - free report >>

PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) - free report >>

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