What’s happening in this Global Week Ahead?

 There seems to be very little standing in the way of stock-market bulls right now.

• But a landmark U.S./Russia summit in Alaska
• A central bank shin-dig in Wyoming, and 
• Elections in Bolivia, among other things, can play the media highlights

Perhaps poor macro data, or a major policy crisis, imbues the bulls with some caution.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) Has Stagflation Arrived in the USA?

As global stocks rally, everything from weak U.S. jobs data to trouble at the top of the Federal Reserve has been a reason to bet on U.S. rate cuts, meaning it's not been profitable to be bearish.

About 60% of global investors surveyed by BofA think U.S. stagflation could be the dominant global market regime within three months.

A basket of stocks that do well in stagflationary environments, where growth slows as inflation accelerates, has been outpaced by Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX), this year, Societe Generale strategists reckon.

Next week's business surveys, which can show economic trends months before they appear in official data, will offer more clues about whether U.S. tariffs are driving the world's largest towards stagflation.

SocGen, however, expects Fed rate cuts to inflate a stock-market bubble that might not pop until at least next year.
 

(2) The Kansas City Fed’s 2025 Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY Gets Underway

It's officially summer in financial markets.

Q2 earnings are out, the next crop of major economic data isn't until early September and many money managers and traders are heading out to the beaches for a break.

There is just one thing to worry about: Jackson Hole.

The Wyoming resort plays host to the annual central bankers' schmoozefest and will include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell among its attendees.

The conference takes place as stocks hover near record levels, and Trump continues to take pot-shots at Powell.

Jackson Hole has the potential to be disruptive.

Any hint from Powell that a September rate cut isn't happening and markets could sell off hard, while an overly upbeat tone from the Fed Chair may feed more euphoria.

“And bull markets die in euphoria,” says Steve Sosnick, strategist at trading firm IBKR.
 

(3) Japanese Inflation a Focus, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Shifts Monetary Policy

With nearly every central bank looking to cut rates to give their economies a soft landing, the Bank of Japan stands apart in its mission to raise borrowing costs - in theory.

So, next Friday's inflation data will be in focus for any sign of when the BOJ's long-pledged tightening cycle will resume.

The previous reading of the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annual +3.3% increase in June, remaining above the BOJ's +2% target for over three years.

No bank went harder or longer with quantitative easing than the BOJ. But the long road towards normalization has been complicated by uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and concerns about whether Japan was seeing the right kind of price increases.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has justified slower rate hikes because "underlying inflation," which focuses on domestic demand and wages, remains below the central bank's target.
 

(4) Is the Russia-Ukraine Conflict About to Turn into a Ceasefire?

Investors will closely watch U.S. President Donald Trump's meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin on Friday looking to end the war in Ukraine.

There's caution over the longevity of any agreement and Europe's leaders are fearful that the U.S. and Russia could take far-reaching decisions that sidelines them, or seeks to coerce Ukraine into an unfavorable deal.

This backdrop means stocks, especially in Europe, should benefit if the Trump-Putin Alaska summit receives a broad thumbs-up.

The euro and Ukraine's battered bonds should also gain. And a lasting end to the three-year old conflict could be a tailwind to global disinflation (ex-U.S., that is).

Yet, the devil is in the details and Europe is unlikely to embrace Russia, even if peace returns.

That means the one-way march higher in defense stocks may ebb, but won't be seriously disrupted.
 

(5) A Presidential Election in Bolivia. Local Elections in the Rest of S. America

Bolivia this weekend kicks off a string of national and local elections across Latin America that extends into late next year, when behemoth Brazil votes to elect a new (or sitting) president.

After 2022's "pink tide" brought left-leaning governments to power in Chile, Colombia and Brazil, investors want to see if voters will return to more market-friendly right-wingers.

Ahead of Sunday's Bolivian presidential election, the country's bonds have rallied on hopes that political change could bring the economy back from the brink. A second round, if needed, comes in October.

Argentina's local elections in September and October are seen as a gauge of the popularity of President Javier Milei's radical economic transformation.

Chile votes for a president in November, while next year Colombia elects its congress in March and president in May.

Peru holds a presidential election in April and Brazil does so in October 2026.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

(1) Watts Water Technologies (WTS Quick QuoteWTS - Free Report) : This is a $274 a share stock, with a market cap of 9.3B. It is found in the Instruments-Control industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Headquartered in North Andover, MA, Watts Water Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures and sells various water safety and flow control products to promote safety, energy efficiency, and water conservation for commercial and residential buildings.

The company reports its business under three geographic segments: The Americas (73.6% of total revenues in fourth-quarter 2024), Europe (20.1%) and APMEA consisting of Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa (6.3%).

Watts Water classifies its wide range of products under four universal product lines –

1. Residential & commercial flow control products — include products typically sold into plumbing and hot water applications such as backflow preventers, water pressure regulators, temperature and pressure relief valves, and thermostatic mixing valves.

2. HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) & gas products — includes hydronic and electric heating systems for under-floor radiant applications, hydronic pump groups for boiler manufacturers and alternative energy control packages, and flexible stainless-steel connectors for natural and liquid propane gas in commercial food service, residential applications, commercial high-efficiency boilers, water heaters and custom heat and hot water solutions.

3. Drainage & water re-use products — includes drainage products and engineered rain water harvesting solutions for commercial, industrial, marine and residential applications.

4. Water quality products — includes point-of-use and point-of-entry water filtration, conditioning and scale prevention systems for commercial, marine and residential applications.

These products are sold to plumbing, heating and mechanical wholesale distributors and dealers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), specialty product distributors, and major do-it-yourself (DIY) and retail chains.

(2) Armstrong World Industries (AWI Quick QuoteAWI - Free Report) : This is a $194 a share stock, with a market cap of 8.5B. It is found in the Building Products-Miscellaneous industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Incorporated in 1891, Pennsylvania-based Armstrong World is a leading global producer of ceiling systems for use primarily in the construction and renovation of commercial, institutional and residential buildings.

It designs, manufactures and sells ceiling systems (primarily mineral fiber, fiberglass wool, metal, wood, wood fiber, glass-reinforced-gypsum and felt) globally.

As of June 30, 2025, the company has operated 20 manufacturing plants, of which 18 were located in the United States and two in Canada. WAVE operates seven additional plants in the United States to produce suspension system (grid) products.

Armstrong World currently operates in three reporting segments — Mineral Fiber, Architectural Specialties and Unallocated Corporate.

1. Mineral Fiber (accounting for 68.2% of 2024 revenues) produces suspended mineral fiber and soft fiber ceiling systems for use in commercial and residential settings.

2. Architectural Specialties (31.8%) produces and sources ceilings and walls for use in commercial settings.

3. The Unallocated Corporate contains cash, debt, a fully-funded U.S. pension plan and certain other miscellaneous balance-sheet items. Also, it includes all assets, liabilities, income and expenses that were formerly reported in the E MEA and Pacific Rim segments.

As of the second quarter of 2025, it had cash and cash equivalents of $81.1 million, up from $79.3 million at 2024-end. Long-term debt (less current installments) was $461.8 million, down from the 2024-end level of $502.6 million. Its current cash level is enough to meet short-term obligations of $22.5 million.

(3) Levi Strauss (LEVI Quick QuoteLEVI - Free Report) : This is a $21 a share stock, with a market cap of 8.3B. It is found in the Retail-Apparel and Shoes industry. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Levi Strauss & Co. designs and markets jeans, casual wear and related accessories for men, women and children under the Levi's, Dockers, Signature by Levi Strauss & Co. and Denizen brands.

Its products are sold through chain retailers, department stores, online sites and brand-dedicated retail stores and shop-in-shops.

Levi Strauss & Co. is based in San Francisco, United States.
 

Key Global Macro

Friday’s Fed Chair Powell speech at Jackson Hole will be a highlight.

Before that, focus on U.S. housing statistics that land, all week long.

On Monday, the NAHB housing index for the USA comes out for August. The prior reading was 33.

On Tuesday, U.S. housing starts (consensus is 1.3M, prior is 1.32M) and building permits (prior is 1.4M) for July come out.
 

The Fed’s Bowman gives a speech.

On Wednesday, the FOMC’s May minutes come out.

There is a People’s Bank of China (PBoC) monetary policy decision out. 3.0% is the currently loan policy rate there.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to cut its policy rate to 3.0% from 3.25%.

The Fed’s Waller gives a speech.

On Thursday, the Jackson Hole symposium gets underway.

The U.S. flash manufacturing PMI for August comes out. I see a 49.8 prior reading.

U.S. existing home sales for July come out. (3.92M is consensus, prior is 3.93M).

The S&P global manufacturing PMI for August comes out. 49.8 is the prior print.

On Friday, the Jackson Hole symposium continues.

Fed Chair Powell’s speech will be the highlight.
 

Conclusion

Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian provided a closing Q2 earning wrap on Aug. 14th.

“Including August 14th results from Deere & Company (DE Quick QuoteDE - Free Report) , Tapestry (TPR Quick QuoteTPR - Free Report) and others, we now have Q2 results from 461 S&P500 members, or 92.2% of the index’s total membership. 

• Total earnings for these companies are up +11.4% from the same period last year, on +5.8% higher revenues
• 80.5% beat EPS estimates and 78.7% beat revenue estimates

“Part of the earnings outperformance is a function of how low expectations had become ahead of the start of this reporting cycle.

“Particularly, in the wake of the early-April tariff announcements.”

That’s it for me.

Enjoy a successful week, trading and investing.

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist