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Why Is HP (HPQ) Down 5.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for HP (HPQ - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is HP due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

HPQ's Q3 Earnings Match Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

HP reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings of 75 cents per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to earnings of 84 cents per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

HPQ posted revenues of $13.93 billion for the quarter ended July 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.19%. This compares to the year-ago revenues of $13.52 billion.

HPQ’s Q3 Top-Line Details

Personal Systems (PS) revenues (71% of net revenues) came in at $9.9 billion, up 6% year over year (6% in constant currency). The upside in this division was mainly driven by both commercial and consumer strength, higher ASPs, and momentum in Key Growth Areas.

HP’s total PC units rose 5%, with Consumer PS shipments up 8% and Commercial PS shipments up 3%. On the revenue side, Consumer PS grew 8%, while Commercial PS increased 5%.

The Printing business (29% of net revenues) generated $4.0 billion, down 4% year over year (down 3% in constant currency). Weakness in Supplies and Commercial Printing led to the decline. Consumer Printing revenues fell 8%, Commercial Printing revenues declined 3%, and Supplies revenues dropped 4% (3% in CC). Total hardware units were down 9%, with Consumer Printing units down 8% and Commercial Printing units down 12%.

By geography, HP posted revenue growth in all regions. On a constant currency basis, the Americas rose 1.1%, EMEA was up 1.1%, and Asia Pacific & Japan grew 11% year over year.

Operating Results

Segment-wise, Personal Systems’ (PS) non-GAAP operating margin was 5.4%, down 120 basis points year over year. The Printing division’s non-GAAP operating margin stood at 17.3%, flat year over year despite revenue softness.

HP’s overall non-GAAP operating margin from continuing operations was 7.1%, contracting 110 bps compared to the prior-year quarter.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

HP ended the fiscal third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $2.9 billion and restricted cash of $3 million, up from $2.7 billion at the end of the previous quarter. During the quarter, HP generated $1.66 billion of cash from operating activities and delivered $1.47 billion in free cash flow compared with negative free cash flow in the prior quarter.

During the third quarter, the company returned $400 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Year to date, HP has generated $1.44 billion in free cash flow.

HP’s Q4 and FY25 Guidance

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the company expects non-GAAP EPS between 87 cents and 97 cents. HPQ anticipates its free cash flow for fiscal 2025 in the range of $2.6-$3.0 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a flat trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

At this time, HP has a nice Growth Score of B, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

HP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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